October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Dave]

It has been refreshingly wet for the last several hours. Been raining lightly and continuously for about the last 5 hours. Nice to get a decent soaking before our warm and dry stretch that is coming up. Seems like Indian Summers are far more common these days.

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Dave said:

Annular eclipses are total duds anyway. We had another one that put Eugene almost in "totality" (which isn't really a thing for annular eclipses) about 15 years ago. I viewed it with eclipse glasses and it was not that interesting. Most people walking around didn't even notice the slight decrease in sunlight. It was like a cloud passing by. Total eclipses on the other hand, are absolutely breathtaking and well worth getting inside the totality area.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 59/48 day here. Good for my first sub-60 high of the season. Dry through noon or so, then steady rain all afternoon up through about an hour ago. Temps in the mid-50s much of the afternoon hours so quite fall like.

Picked up .45”, a nice soaking. 56 with some drizzle in spots now.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Up to .28" here.  Picked up the last half of that through a steady heavy drizzle.  Topped out at 59.

[MossMan]

.20” now! 

[Phil]

Look what the GFS does with the EPAC hurricane  

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Look what the GFS does with the EPAC hurricane  

GEM does it too, sort of

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GEM does it too

Oh it’s dynamically plausible. I’ve just never seen it before. Completely ass backwards. 

[Phil]

The pattern already looks like a full-blown El Niño across guidance. Sometimes it takes awhile for the canonical ocean-atmosphere coupling to establish, but apparently not this year.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

It has been refreshingly wet for the last several hours. Been raining lightly and continuously for about the last 5 hours. Nice to get a decent soaking before our warm and dry stretch that is coming up. Seems like Indian Summers are far more common these days.

Per the Euro, the "Indian Summer" will be pretty brief.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per the Euro, the "Indian Summer" will be pretty brief.

Yeah, I hate that term as well. I'm not gonna use it again. I will be glad to have several warm sunny days, but I'm ready for fall.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per the Euro, the "Indian Summer" will be pretty brief.

Hopefully our Indian Summer ends this weekend.

It’s October and I still haven’t experienced Wx as cool/dry as I did in Seattle in late July. Hilarious.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Per the Euro, the "Indian Summer" will be pretty brief.

Rain ends tonight and doesn't return until a week from now.   That is a pretty decent break for this time of year.   Also not sure we are going into a long term wet pattern in a week.   It might be more of continuation of this alternating pattern.

[TT-SEA]

I also dislike the term Indian Summer but in the Midwest it was always defined as a short warm period after the first hard freeze.  Doesn't seem to apply out here.

[Snownerd3000]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Look what the GFS does with the EPAC hurricane  

[Front Ranger]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hopefully our Indian Summer ends this weekend.

It’s October and I still haven’t experienced Wx as cool/dry as I did in Seattle in late July. Hilarious.

It hasn't exactly been a brutal warm season for your area, though...

[Phil]

20 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

Interestingly enough, I think you’ve received more snowfall than I have in 6 out of the last 7 winters. That has to be pretty unusual.

16/17, 17/18, 19/20, and 22/23 weren’t even close, barely got an inch here in any of those except the 6” that fell after the spring equinox in 2018.

18/19 was a great winter here, but it was rockin’ crazy in the PNW. So that’s a nope.

Only “close calls” are 20/21 and 21/22. I think 21/22 is the only one where we came out on top. And barely.

[the_convergence_zone]

Reminds me of “Wrong Way Lenny” but that one didn’t make a U-turn, it simply traversed the Caribbean from west to east. 

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain ends tonight and doesn't return until a week from now.   That is a pretty decent break for this time of year.   Also not sure we are going into a long term wet pattern in a week.   It might be more of continuation of this alternating pattern.

Ok. The warm/dry pattern lasts 5 days, as far as we can see now.

[the_convergence_zone]

Today was another day that felt like it belonged in late November. It’s been misting all evening. 
 

The fun thing about the PNW is that even a few sunny days this week won’t actually dry anything out, the soil will remain wet until next June. 

[iFred]

21 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

After enduring the 2013-2019 stretch I really don't like to hear that. Especially given the extra decade of warming since then. No subfreezing highs here during that time period and a bunch of missed snow opportunities. Granted there were some ideal setups that we ended up rolling duds on every single time, which is super unfortunate and admittedly rare, but a stretch even half as boring would still test my love of this climate.

(However it did make Feb 2019 all the more special!)

Don’t worry, some guy on the east coast says you should be happy with what you got and you can check out his glazed tulip trees in December for your snow fix.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry, some guy on the east coast says you should be happy with what you got and you can check out his glazed tulip trees in December for your snow fix.

Think of how much good you could do if you just turned this thing off

[RentonHill]

Monday night comes the uppercut

[Tyler Mode]

Ended yesterday with 0.71", 0.05" so far today with drizzle continuing.

[The Winter Warlock]

4 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Monday night comes the uppercut

50 Shades of Green

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, The Winter Warlock said:

50 Shades of Green

Winter Warlock!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My weather station is down right now, but looking at the one at the fire station it looks like we haven’t been above 59 in at least the past 7 days. Only 54 yesterday. Only hit 51 on Friday. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry, some guy on the east coast says you should be happy with what you got and you can check out his glazed tulip trees in December for your snow fix.

Why the sudden obsession with tulip poplar trees?

[Phil]

8 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

It hasn't exactly been a brutal warm season for your area, though...

“Easiest” summer since 2014. Which isn’t saying much, but still.

Unfortunately the best month (June) was ruined by constant smoke. Also the warm weather started very early this year. Even though it wasn’t a horrible summer, it’s been warm for a long time.

[Phil]

PMM really bottoming out this year. Among the lowest values ever observed in September.

Unlike the PDO, the PMM signal reflects some degree of thermodynamic interplay w/ the greater ocean-atmosphere circulation(s).

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like a warm front came through PDX, with rising temperatures overnight. 

[LowerGarfield]

My son is really excited for school this morning, but I am really excited to check my rain gauge. As of 8pm or so last night we had nothing but from a distance we have at least half an inch and probably more than that - rare for this area. Will get outside and check. Still lightly raining here. Over performance if true. Currently 54F.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear and 45F this morning.  Picked up just under 1/2” of rain yesterday.  I got throughly drenched at work. 

[The Winter Warlock]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter Warlock!!!

SUMMER HAS ENDED.

BEGIN THE INFLUX OF WEATHER CASUALS AND THE EXCITEMENT OVER LONG-RANGE PEPTO COLORS - TO THE ANGER OF CLIFF MASS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had 0.34” in the bucket when I checked last night. Rained the rest of the night and was still coming down when we headed for PDX at 3a. Some snow on the peaks around Vegas. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My son is really excited for school this morning, but I am really excited to check my rain gauge. As of 8pm or so last night we had nothing but from a distance we have at least half an inch and probably more than that - rare for this area. Will get outside and check. Still lightly raining here. Over performance if true. Currently 54F.

Excited for school?  

[LowerGarfield]

.65 just overnight. Only .25 was expected.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

.65 just overnight. Only .25 was expected.

That rain gauge only goes up to 1 inch.

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That rain gauge only goes up to 1 inch.

I have the larger catchment basin that goes up to 5 inches with the funnel. I seldom need it in my climate, but it's there. Just took it out for a photo and to replace it. For snow, I can use the basin but I prefer to measure with snowboards instead.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

.65 just overnight. Only .25 was expected.

Pretty solid soaker for your area! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, The Winter Warlock said:

50 Shades of Green

And even a little blue.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Light fog, damp autumnal smell, trees along the Grandview Cut starting to turn. Very seasonable weather for early October. So much nicer than last year’s smoke-fest that refused to die.

(And yes, I know a string of sunny, warmer, dry days is coming up. Those sort of conditions are typical for early October, too.)

[Phil]

That’s an impressive signal for anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent on the EPS.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Why the sudden obsession with tulip poplar trees?

because they're very poplar

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

because they're very poplar

Good one. Even though it would be more accurate to call them tulip magnolias. They are much more closely related to magnolias than to true poplars.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice looking 12z run so far. 

[Omegaraptor]

27 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

(And yes, I know a string of sunny, warmer, dry days is coming up. Those sort of conditions are typical for early October, too.)

Even in midwinter getting a weeklong stretch of dry sunny weather isn’t that unusual. In fact… it happened just as often in the “good ol’ days” as it does now.

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

PMM really bottoming out this year. Among the lowest values ever observed in September.

Unlike the PDO, the PMM signal reflects some degree of thermodynamic interplay w/ the greater ocean-atmosphere circulation(s).

PMM is that cold patch stretching from HI to CA, correct?

[DareDuck]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That rain gauge only goes up to 1 inch.

[LowerGarfield]

It looks like I was a local winner. NWS Pendleton and Spokane said the storm under performed in most of their CWAs.