October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

06z is great for Cali especially.

[smerfylicious]

On 10/20/2023 at 4:38 PM, MossMan said:

That PA announcement translated said “Haha Pacific Northwest United States, we have already kicked your a** in the snow department” 

Lol close. It was just announcing the stops the next intercity train that was coming to our station was going to. 

There was a track issue near Alvsjö so some stuff got rerouted thanks to literally a dusting of snow.

 

How does snow mess up transit in basically the arctic? It's like there being now snow plows in Anchorage. 

[RentonHill]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

D**n this is crazy good dynamically. This pattern sequence in order, taken place one month later, is the beginnings to November 1985. Everything from the deep Arctic sourcing to the well timed blocking to the polar lobe that just sits and oscillates right over us. Awesome

Tellekinexions??

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the white.

My guess is that if you look at the temperature and DP maps you will see it's phantom snow.

[the_convergence_zone]

An impressive setup for late October for sure. Going to see a lot of chilly overnight lows later in the week and it will be nice to see the mountains dusted. Maybe Sea-Tac can make a run at a record low??? 

 

 

[MossMan]

50 degrees and drippy! 

[MossMan]

Let’s just keep it in the - from now until April! 

[MossMan]

Cliff says winter is coming…Unless you are south of Bellingham in western Wa. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-first-major-arctic-air-blast-of.html?m=1 

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff says winter is coming…Unless you are south of Bellingham in western Wa. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-first-major-arctic-air-blast-of.html?m=1 

 

[Phil]

Hot damn.  First time I checked the models since Friday, looks like the GFS came out on top?!

Jaw meet floor.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hot damn.  First time I checked the models since Friday, looks like the GFS came out on top?!

Jaw meet floor.

Yes, old news…Get caught up. Andrew has already proclaimed the Euro as trash. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I think we see snow levels down to 500-1000 ft on the peninsula. Growing pretty confident I see flakes fly.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes, old news…Get caught up. Andrew has already proclaimed the Euro as trash. 

Hey I had a wedding to attend. Priorities, and all that.

Plus autumn is boring af here. I’m always tuned out, which is probably why this trend happened. You’re welcome!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

Jim!! Where have you been? We were all worried sick, haha.

We really needed someone to counter Tim’s heat misering. Please don’t go anywhere.

[Skagit Weather]

Does anyone know what happened/what the set-up was in late October 1984? I just saw that BLI recorded a 31/20 day on October 31st??? That remains their earliest subfreezing high by two weeks. Looks like SEA also had a respectable, but not nearly as crazy 41/31 day.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Does anyone know what happened/what the set-up was in late October 1984? I just saw that BLI recorded a 31/20 day on October 31st??? That remains their earliest subfreezing high by two weeks. Looks like SEA also had a respectable, but not nearly as crazy 41/31 day.

It was a classic Arctic blast setup.  I still clearly remember it.  We had snow on the ground on Halloween morning where I was living and the roads were icy.  It was quite remarkable.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jim!! Where have you been? We were all worried sick, haha.

We needed someone to counter Tim’s heat misering. Please don’t go anywhere.

It's a long story.   I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it.

In short I'm fine.  I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Bull ain't going to happen. 

Per WeatherBit and OpenweatherMap

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, ChrisEl Elyon said:

Bull ain't going to happen. 

Per WeatherBit and OpenweatherMap

My phone app has turned into the Rich Marriott of apps. 

[snow_wizard]

One pretty remarkable aspect to the coming cold snap is the surface pressure gradients remain northerly for most of the event.  That is especially good for cold mins in the Central Puget Sound region as opposed to cold snaps with a more easterly gradient.  I'm thinking there will be some mid 20s if things go as currently shown.

With a nino cold snaps are normally more backdoor / easterly gradient.  Kind of interesting.

[smerfylicious]

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a long story.   I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it.

In short I'm fine.  I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive.

Did you finally strike it rich in the golden fields of Liberty?

[Gradient Keeper]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a long story.   I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it.

In short I'm fine.  I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive.

Good to see you, Jim! Hopefully the models will be in our favor often the next 4-5 months.

12z ECMWF in 9 minutes

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Did you finally strike it rich in the golden fields of Liberty?

I wish....it's not for lack of trying.

I will say I credit mining for helping me maintain some degree of sanity during hard times.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Good to see you, Jim! Hopefully the models will be in our favor often the next 4-5 months.

12z ECMWF in 9 minutes

Thank you!

Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter.  Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile.

[Skagit Weather]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My phone app has turned into the Rich Marriott of apps. 

That looks pretty reasonable for what the models are showing currently. Maybe a degree or two too warm on some of those days (I think we'll see some lows in the 20s), but snow is probably not going to happen. On the other hand, if anyone is going to get snow it's probably going to be you.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

He’s back! All it took was a modelled arctic blast.

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

Yeah this October cold snap doesn’t have me that optimistic about anything happening in the winter but there could definitely still be something especially in Nov or Dec.

[Slushy Inch]

First freeze a near guarantee it seems, when the sky clears out at night. Outlying areas into the 20s. Can you imagine if this was on the 31st? Trick or treating would be miserable

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank you!

Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter.  Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile.

It's nice to have you back Jim!

Yeah I agree if something happens it will probably be late November or December. February is way overdue for a blowtorch so we might as well just get that monkey off our backs this winter. January is January. An average one is worthy of celebration nowadays.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How’d the euro look. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Slushy Inch]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 

I saw that. Wasn’t going to post it. Since it’s JAN during a El Niño, and it’s the CFS. And it’s January 

[Tyler Mode]

41 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

First freeze a near guarantee it seems, when the sky clears out at night. Outlying areas into the 20s. Can you imagine if this was on the 31st? Trick or treating would be miserable

I could think of far more miserable Halloweens.  Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain.  Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 

The last update on the ECWF monthlies actually has a cold December for us.  I was pleased to see that.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I could think of far more miserable Halloweens.  Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain.  Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else.

Very true.  I remember a lot of clear and frosty Halloween nights and they are pretty awesome actually.

[snow_wizard]

As an aside has anyone else noticed how drippy the Douglas Fir trees have been this year?  We have had a huge problem with it making our cars dirty and sticky.  The freezing nights should finally shut that off.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here you go @SilverFallsAndrew and all.

12z ECMWF 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 

Expect the warmest January in history.  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank you!

Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter.  Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile.

Yeah if anything is going to happen this winter it’ll be the front half, given this ENSO/LP structure (barring something unprecedented w/ the PV/NAM, even more-so than 2018/19..I.E: theoretically possible but quite unlikely).

[Slushy Inch]

32 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I could think of far more miserable Halloweens.  Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain.  Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else.

That is worse. Even worse if it is in the mid 40s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like it's going to get nippy.

Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good.

Nice to see you man!! Glad you’re back!!

[MossMan]

Winterizing around the house! 
And the squirrels are really barking at my dogs today…
It’s coming. 

[Cold Snap]

Some EPS members are showing snow. Though no members on the GEFS are showing snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Environment Canada says I get a freeze this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last year it poured on Halloween. I stayed in the car with the baby while my daughter and wife ran around getting soaked trick or treating. 

[Cold Snap]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Environment Canada says I get a freeze this week.

Weather.com says I could possibly get four next week!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

End of season harvest!