October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

Crazy thing about hurricane Otis is even the tropical storm force winds only extended 60mi from the center. That’s an insane amount of pressure gradient force packed into such a tiny area.

I’m sure that’s an important factor in explaining why model guidance shit the bed. Small storms are notoriously fickle and can ramp up/spin down astonishingly quickly.

Literally less than an hour drive from near 200mph gusts to 20mph breeze w/ partial clearing. The eyewall swath was so small it could fit inside the DC beltway.

[GoldenEars]

The mountains to the north of Pitt Meadows got a couple of inches last night. 

 

[Phil]

13 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Late October 1972 is also a pretty good match.  

Locally yes, but Beaufort/AK/NE Siberia (& overall NAM sign) were inverted vs this year. Blocking definitely seems healthier now, though first half of November looks pretty dull.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

36.9˚F.

[LowerGarfield]

No snow but was happy with the .48 inches we got last night and this morning. Taking the gauge inside at least for the next several days and giving it a wash.

[LowerGarfield]

58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That is insane! Why can’t we ever get an epic regional monster arctic blast with 2’ of snow for everyone when the forecast called for a slushy mix for anyone below 1,000ft? 
The only time I remember anything even remotely happening like that was in December 1996. 

Idk if it was the same system for everyone but Snowpocalypse was incredible in Stanwood and equally impressive in my newer region as Lewiston had a record snowfall that month and I feel like they even had seven inches one of the days. In Stanwood one of the systems (all new snow) the snow was nearly calf level on the street near the HS.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS long range is looking really wet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

That is insane! Why can’t we ever get an epic regional monster arctic blast with 2’ of snow for everyone when the forecast called for a slushy mix for anyone below 1,000ft? 
The only time I remember anything even remotely happening like that was in December 1996. 

Aww, c’mon, we had a nice regionwide ice storm last winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'd think about it now that I can pump my own gas there.

Seriously though, I did my time in Oregon, lived there from '94 to '02.  I made some good friends while I lived there, but really don't have much desire to go back except for maybe the Oregon Coast. 

I like the fact Oregon has 40% of the population density of Washington. Like I said, Washington is a great state, plenty of natural beauty, a lot of career opportunities for folks in the Puget Sound area. Outside of Portland and Bend, Oregon is pretty much a backwater. That's something I like. I have a feeling I would like Alaska. One of the 8 states I have never been to. I am involved with a business up in Anchorage though, so we're working on a visit at some point. 

 

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Now that they will no longer be forced to watch someone else pump their gas, this should change.

The gas station I go to in Albany does not allow me to pump my own gas, but I go there because they are the cheapest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS long range is looking really wet.

I would LOVE to see a 20" November. Doubt it happens, but would be great to get a really wet month in. November last year ended up fairly wet here, despite a lot of really nice sunny cold days. November 2021 turned out very wet with nearly 15" of rain, tons of gross warm front drizzle for days on end. I love rain, but days of thick mist while we torch is less than ideal. I don't mind if it's active and mild. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw this photo posted online of the first dusting of snow in NE Oregon's Wallowa Valley. 

[Phil]

Speaking of RI potential, some guidance wants to develop something in the Caribbean in early November. Wouldn’t think much of it, except…

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Aww, c’mon, we had a nice regionwide ice storm last winter.

Ice storms are more trouble than they’re worth imo. Would rather the water be frozen before it hits the ground.

[Meatyorologist]

36F out

[Chewbacca Defense]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like the fact Oregon has 40% of the population density of Washington. Like I said, Washington is a great state, plenty of natural beauty, a lot of career opportunities for folks in the Puget Sound area. Outside of Portland and Bend, Oregon is pretty much a backwater. That's something I like. I have a feeling I would like Alaska. One of the 8 states I have never been to. I am involved with a business up in Anchorage though, so we're working on a visit at some point. 

 

The gas station I go to in Albany does not allow me to pump my own gas, but I go there because they are the cheapest.

I would love to live in Alaska, but the reality is that I don't know that I could any more, I struggle with the darkness of winters here, no way I could manage up there.  I did a cruise up to AK and really loved Ketchikan.  The Sunshine Coast in BC is also pretty incredible, and has a small town/rural vibe to it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry, wasn't available to post the Euro. Here's a re-cap. We turn quite wet late in the run.

10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. I think we're going to see models turn very wet in the coming days.

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like the fact Oregon has 40% of the population density of Washington. Like I said, Washington is a great state, plenty of natural beauty, a lot of career opportunities for folks in the Puget Sound area. Outside of Portland and Bend, Oregon is pretty much a backwater. That's something I like. I have a feeling I would like Alaska. One of the 8 states I have never been to. I am involved with a business up in Anchorage though, so we're working on a visit at some point. 

 

The gas station I go to in Albany does not allow me to pump my own gas, but I go there because they are the cheapest.

I didn't realize there were still parts of the country in which a gas station attendant pumps gas for you. I have lived in CA my entire life and all the gas stations here are self-serve, in which you have to pump your own gas, and that has been the case for quite a few years now. There used to be full service at gas stations here, in which an attendant would do it for you, but you always had the option of self-serve, too.

[Meatyorologist]

34F.

[The Blob]

[Meatyorologist]

32F!

[TT-SEA]

37 here... 40 in North Bend.

[TT-SEA]

SEA got down to 37 but is back up to 42 now.  

31 at BLI on the hour.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like its cloudy from SEA southward... that little second lobe is coming through now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was wet. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I didn't realize there were still parts of the country in which a gas station attendant pumps gas for you. I have lived in CA my entire life and all the gas stations here are self-serve, in which you have to pump your own gas, and that has been the case for quite a few years now. There used to be full service at gas stations here, in which an attendant would do it for you, but you always had the option of self-serve, too.

It’s so dumb. Driving thru NJ in 2020 I stopped for gas and instinctively got out to pump it and the attendant looked at me like I had a third eye growing out of my head, and I likewise w/ him. Wtf do they think is gonna happen?

[The Blob]

Down to 43 at home.

[iFred]

On the cusp of my first freeze in Everett. There was a bit of light fog on the drive into Seattle with temps taking a jump as soon as I passed Northgate.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

32F!

As usual u guys beat me to the first freeze. Probably won’t get one here until November.

[The Blob]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s so dumb. Driving thru NJ in 2020 I stopped for gas and instinctively got out to pump it and the attendant looked at me like I had a third eye growing out of my head, and I likewise w/ him. Wtf do they think is gonna happen?

We had that happen in Jordan Valley on our way to Boise from SoCal, but the guy was use to being told off by people since it was the only gas station between McDermitt NV and Idaho.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

06z was wet. 

Really splits the region... quite dry for the entire area through day 10 and then pounds OR with AR activity.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17” of fresh snow at Timberline on Mt Hood. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really splits the region... quite dry for the entire area through day 10 and then pounds OR with AR activity.  

Can definitely see the niño theme there w/ drier north/wetter south. Definitely expect that trend to continue/amplify as the seasonal transition matures, since the niño base state is healthy and fully established in the tropics already.

[Phil]

Intraseasonal state/MJO begins to constructively interfere with the niño base state next month. Doesn’t look like a true propagating MJO because the niño base state/+IOD are so dominant and unyielding, but the reflection of the MJO can be seen in the zonal wind anomalies (bifurcated westerly anoms consolidating near the dateline).

Still, that area of anomalous subsidence near 120E should be a fixture through the remainder of autumn into December at least.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like its cloudy from SEA southward... that little second lobe is coming through now.

Yup, there it is

[ShawniganLake]

30F here. First freeze. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like the fact Oregon has 40% of the population density of Washington. Like I said, Washington is a great state, plenty of natural beauty, a lot of career opportunities for folks in the Puget Sound area. Outside of Portland and Bend, Oregon is pretty much a backwater. That's something I like. I have a feeling I would like Alaska. One of the 8 states I have never been to. I am involved with a business up in Anchorage though, so we're working on a visit at some point.

What made me leave Oregon was mostly personal: the vast majority of tech job opportunities are in the Willamette Valley, and the valley is basically unlivable to me due to my grass pollen allergies. There is no grass seed industry in western Washington or western BC, so I can actually be outdoors in June here and not get seriously ill.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32.2˚F and frosty out there.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Down to 28.8, 12 hours spent below 32

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Crazy thing about hurricane Otis is even the tropical storm force winds only extended 60mi from the center. That’s an insane amount of pressure gradient force packed into such a tiny area.

I’m sure that’s an important factor in explaining why model guidance the bed. Small storms are notoriously fickle and can ramp up/spin down astonishingly quickly.

Literally less than an hour drive from near 200mph gusts to 20mph breeze w/ partial clearing. The eyewall swath was so small it could fit inside the DC beltway.

Charley-esque

[Phishy Wx]

32 and Cloudy

should get in the mid 20s tonight and upper teens tomorrow night

[Rubus Leucodermis]

32.0˚F now. First freeze.

[the_convergence_zone]

Low of 38.7. No frost, maybe tomorrow.

[Blizzard777]

37* earlier

currently 39* 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Cold.”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 first frost 

[MossMan]

No official freeze here…However I have some frost on the lower portion of the roof. Looks more impressive in person. 
34 degrees for a low. Currently 35. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Cold.”

Great time for a swim! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No official freeze here…However I have some frost on the lower portion of the roof. Looks more impressive in person. 
34 degrees for a low. Currently 35. 

Plenty of frost on the roofs here!

[Skagit Weather]

First freeze here as well. Dropped to 31.7F around 3 a.m. before warming back up to 34F.