October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Tanis Leach]

The 2023-24 Willamette Valley Winter Weather forecast is out. This was presented at the Winter Weather Conference hosted by the Oregon Chapter of The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and thank you again for hosting me, and all the other forecasters.

Predictions only: https://youtu.be/8qIO35TdZ-o

Technical version (same presentation as the conference): https://youtu.be/jPNRjI5NoIs

A full report (22 pages) is in the description (link wise) of the technical version. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Tanis Leach said:

The 2023-24 Willamette Valley Winter Weather forecast is out. This was presented at the Winter Weather Conference hosted by the Oregon Chapter of The American Meteorological Society (AMS) and thank you again for hosting me, and all the other forecasters.

Predictions only: https://youtu.be/8qIO35TdZ-o

Technical version (same presentation as the conference): https://youtu.be/jPNRjI5NoIs

A full report (22 pages) is in the description (link wise) of the technical version. 

Thanks for being a good representation of the South Willamette Valley.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Yikes…Quite dry for my area. 

Given the persistent troughing offshore, it will be heavily SW flow in the next cycle. The rain shadow will position near the climatological normal and won't move around much. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at this... I generally agree with this assessment. November is one of the wettest months of the year, even though the next couple of weeks seem like they will be very wet, at face value it is really not much above average. I wouldn't be surprised to see some decent troughing around Thanksgiving and then maybe a week of ridging. Would be nice to parlay that into an early December retrograde. 

I knew it was quite cold, but kinda forgot just how impressive last November was for much of the PNW.

• Coldest November for SEA since 1985
• Same for OLM, and third coldest on record
• Older records are kinda jacked up, but looks like a top 3 cold November for Silver Falls

[the_convergence_zone]

14 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Who's ready for what I think is going to be an action packed soaker of a run? Yeah.

00z ECMWF in 10 minutes

We've had a nice run this fall of the bigger storms coming on weekdays with pleasant weather on the weekends. 

That will definitely not be the case this coming weekend, although I think I might be able to squeeze a trail run in on Sunday morning during the more showery postfrontal period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I knew it was quite cold, but kinda forgot just how impressive last November was for much of the PNW.

• Coldest November for SEA since 1985
• Same for OLM, and third coldest on record
• Older records are kinda jacked up, but looks like a top 3 cold November for Silver Falls

Yes, it was a very chilly November. Just consistently cool/cold throughout. Our warmest temp for the month was 51 and it was our coldest MONTH since February 2019. Most of the analogs favor a warmer and potentially wet November this year. Though both 2014 and 2015 had cold snaps in November, so it can definitely happen during a +ENSO. The coldest day of the season in 2019-20 was November 30th too. 

[Cold Snap]

Low of 29 here this morning. 5th freeze.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 31 this morning. Currently 50 degrees

[Kolk1604]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Early taste of El Nino. Major blessings for our California friends. 

Should probably stop posting those fake maps and giving them false hope. 

Maybe northern California is wet, but dry south of that. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

According to the NWS, OLM only bottomed out at 23 the other morning, not 20. So more in line with surrounding locations.

That makes a lot more sense to me. 19F (before it showed up as 20F) just seemed way colder than any of the nearby stations, especially the ones that normally are within a degree or two of OLM.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

so this would imply xmas to new years fun and games somewhere depending on how it lines up

[Phil]

EPS weeklies rapidly tighten up the SPV but then project it weakening under wave attacks in December. Interesting.

[iFred]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

so this would imply xmas to new years fun and games somewhere depending on how it lines up

I've got to be at a wedding in New Mexico between the 28th and 2nd, so this lines up.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

so this would imply xmas to new years fun and games somewhere depending on how it lines up

Lmao dude ninja’d me.  

[RentonHill]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

so this would imply xmas to new years fun and games somewhere depending on how it lines up

basically 68/69 repeat guaranteed 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

If we’re gonna depart from niño climo, that’s one way to do it.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies rapidly tighten up the SPV but then project it weakening under wave attacks in December. Interesting.

quick wind up quick crash, huh? maybe

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

basically 68/69 repeat guaranteed 

Sounds perfect.

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

A repeat of December 2021 would work okay for me. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A repeat of December 2021 would work okay for me. 

That works too. A good 10" here over 3 nights with that one.

[Phishy Wx]

wood on the 68-69

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A repeat of December 2021 would work okay for me. 

 

 

62 inside? And you live with a woman?

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

62 inside? And you live with a woman?

That was the minimum! Heat is set at 69 from 6am to 9pm, then it drops to 65 during the night but I believe we lost power for a little bit that night so the temp dropped further than normal. Plus it was 3 degrees outside. 
My wife has mellowed a bit with time, when I first met her she kept her house at 62 at night and 64 during the day…We moved in together the fall of 2008…I REALLY had to acclimatize quickly by December of that year! 

[Phishy Wx]

1968-12-27	30	4	17.0	-11.0	48	0	0.02	0.2	3
1968-12-28	8	-15	-3.5	-31.5	68	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-29	-9	-21	-15.0	-43.0	80	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-30	-8	-25	-16.5	-44.6	81	0	0.00	0.0	3
1968-12-31	3	-8	-2.5	-30.6	67	0	0.59	7.5	3

[iFred]

I found Andy!

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A repeat of December 2021 would work okay for me. 

I had a white Christmas in 2021, a repeat would be great!

[Meatyorologist]

We barely kissed 32.0F last night here with some high clouds. It was the fifth freeze of the season, and the fifth consecutively. Continuing our strong start!

Tonight looks like a decent bet for a sixth freeze, with nearly identical conditions to yesterday. There's also an outside chance we touch the freezing mark one last time tomorrow night, at least according to the RGEM, but high clouds and building heights will keep insolation high. Come Wednesday evening the storm train resumes, and by Thursday we have westerlies at the surface again with a richly moist pacific airmass. Back to normal.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

I've got to be at a wedding in New Mexico between the 28th and 2nd, so this lines up.

If it's in the northern half of the state (or the higher mountains of the south), good chance you may see it snow there!

[Front Ranger]

45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was the minimum! Heat is set at 69 from 6am to 9pm, then it drops to 65 during the night but I believe we lost power for a little bit that night so the temp dropped further than normal. Plus it was 3 degrees outside. 
My wife has mellowed a bit with time, when I first met her she kept her house at 62 at night and 64 during the day…We moved in together the fall of 2008…I REALLY had to acclimatize quickly by December of that year! 

Gotcha. That's interesting that she liked it colder than you, it's almost always the other way around in my experience and with friends/family.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I had a white Christmas in 2021, a repeat would be great!

It all started the night of Christmas Eve! Was perfect timing! Last year the timing was off by a few days unfortunately. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF re-cap. 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

62 inside? And you live with a woman?

I was going to comment on that. I rarely sleep under the covers lest I succumb to heat stroke.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Meatyorologist]

We get edged by a potent Arctic airmass at the end of the 18z GFS. Just enough so the low level outflow causes a winter storm for Vancouver out west through the Strait of Georgia. Warm rain elsewhere.

[Deweydog]

20 years ago RIGHT NOW it was chilly and breezy!

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Maybe we will finally break the January curse!

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

If we’re gonna depart from niño climo, that’s one way to do it.

Did we have a SSW last winter? I remember the one in 2021 and 2019 but I don't remember if we had one last year or not

[Tanis Leach]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Did we have a SSW last winter? I remember the one in 2021 and 2019 but I don't remember if we had one last year or not

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/disrupted-polar-vortex-brings-sudden-stratospheric-warming-february

 

Feb 23 had one right before the snowstorm.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/disrupted-polar-vortex-brings-sudden-stratospheric-warming-february

 

Feb 23 had one right before the snowstorm.

Oh okay, thanks. That Feb 22 to mid April stretch was really great.
 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/disrupted-polar-vortex-brings-sudden-stratospheric-warming-february

 

Feb 23 had one right before the snowstorm.

That was a lovely event!
Last year was so underrated…I had accumulating snow each month between November and March! 

[MossMan]

Another lovely sunset at soccer practice…And chilly once again! 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a lovely event!
Last year was so underrated…I had accumulating snow each month between November and March! 

It was really great. Started snowing lightly at around 5pm on the 22nd, then around 1am, it started snowing extremely heavily with blizzard conditions in the mid 20s. Another 5-6" fell and I woke up to a great dumping of snow. What made it even better was the ground blizzard with bright sunshine on the 23rd during the day and a subfreezing high, with the snow sticking around almost a week. In late February! 

 

[Cold Snap]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a lovely event!
Last year was so underrated…I had accumulating snow each month between November and March! 

Last winter was pretty great at my location too. If you count the trace of snow I got in January then I got snow every month from November through April! One of the snowiest winters I’ve witnessed.

[Gradient Keeper]

I might be a bit late for the 00z GFS tonight. Not 100% sure.

00z GFS in 1 hour 51 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

He sh*t and blew out his diaper in the pumpkin after this photo…..

[Meatyorologist]

49 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I might be a bit late for the 00z GFS tonight. Not 100% sure.

00z GFS in 1 hour 51 minutes

I can cover it, Rob. Got a good feelin' bout the 00z

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Maybe we will finally break the January curse!

I'll be in Argentina in mid-January, that's gotta boost the odds of something.

[iFred]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If it's in the northern half of the state (or the higher mountains of the south), good chance you may see it snow there!

It’s Cruces, so no.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

54 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s Cruces, so no.

Yeah, about as far south and low elevation as you can get in NM. The only drifts of white you are likely to see are gypsum sand (assuming you take a day trip there).