10/25 - 10/31 Hurricane Norma and a series of storms bring heavy rainfall and possible snow to the central US

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Our cattle are doing great, we have some concerns about whether we will have enough hay this winter to make it through but I think we will.  Our ponds have a long ways to go.  The ground has soaked this rain up like a sponge so runoff has been on the light side.  The drought here was so severe that it will likely be spring before we get out of it even if the winter is on the wet side.  Here is a picture of the pond just outside my house.  You can see it still needs about 7 or 8 ft of water to fill it.

 

Wow, that is interesting to see it still that low but on the flip side, its nice that the ground soaked it up.  I'm glad to hear about the cattle and I'm even more excited to see the pattern continues to deliver in your region.  

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 

Ya, I can see this starting to show up as a pattern that will produce "Banana HP's" hanging around the GL's.  It Will be good for LES but could also suppress storms farther south at times.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, that is interesting to see it still that low but on the flip side, its nice that the ground soaked it up.  I'm glad to hear about the cattle and I'm even more excited to see the pattern continues to deliver in your region.  

The Euro shows a lot of potential with the Election Day storm, add some blocking and it could get real interesting!

[CentralNebWeather]

Local law enforcement says 1.5” of snow. Some melting took place initially. Streets are frozen. Here is also the I80 exit north of me. 

[Clinton]

A little note here for future reference with this part of the pattern for mby.  The GFS had dominated the other models in terms of QPF until yesterday, it didn't do well at all.  It was way to dry and to far south with the precipitation shield.  The Euro did much better but wasn't that great either, hi-res models were late to the game.  The NAM, ICON and UKMET did the best job yesterday with the amounts and where the precip would fall.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Streets were very slick on my drive to church. Temp only 23 degrees. Light snow has started up again. Seems very much like Christmas. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

I hate to see it turn dry up there. With the LRC there are anchor troughs and ridges that develop in the pattern.  I hope you guys in the Mitt don't have a dirty ridge developing, that's what happened here last winter causing storm systems to weaken and fall apart as they moved into eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. 

I was in WMI yesterday and surprised to see some ponds very low (barely any) on water levels. Not everywhere but noticeable more than once. Here in DTW-land, October coming in as the 2nd consecutive month with a rainfall shortfall. Sep/Oct deficit will be about 1.5" Yearly we remain AN thanks to JJA surplus of approximately 5". 

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, I can see this starting to show up as a pattern that will produce "Banana HP's" hanging around the GL's.  It Will be good for LES but could also suppress storms farther south at times.

That HP up near Ottawa is just a little too East for comfort (looks like a classic 2009-10 snowstorm map for the EC). As such, DTW can catch glancing blows on the northern periphery of OHV systems like back in the cold 02-03 winter, but not a set-up to deliver the sweet spot across SMI. 

And what was a strong system to our west, is just a batch of frontal waves that wave at us as they pass on by to my south. I'm prepared for my 1-4" snowstorms during the cold phase of the upcoming winter. As for LES during a Nino. The classic warm and dry pattern votes against that. Instead of serious blasts south, the cold oozes down and keeps right on going to the moisture track down in SOHV and TN valley regions. At least that's the general pattern during stronger Nino's of the past. 

[Bryan1117]

This latest dud of a series of storm systems (for my area at least) left us in East Central Nebraska with just a few flurries and more cold and annoying wind… wash, rinse and repeat.

[jaster220]

Just realized this thread title runs thru Tuesday lol, so..

A compact, but very vigorous shortwave will sweep through the area
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening bringing even colder air into the central
Great Lakes. This system will produce scattered to numerous snow or
rain/snow showers especially from late morning hours into the early
evening as main forcing shifts through the region. As mentioned in
the previous forecast, it appears that this wave will be enhanced as
it encounters the relatively mild waters of Lake Michigan Tuesday.
Both forcing and moisture flux will be influenced as some degree of
a mesoscale surface low develops. For SE Lower MI, the best chance
for notable snow showers will occur as the remnants of this smaller
scale feature sweep southeast through/just southwest of the area
around 00z.

All said, at most expect some potential for several tenths of an
inch of wet accumulation on grassy surfaces where the most vigorous
snow showers set up. It is hard to ascertain the most favorable
location for this to occur, but with a trend to focus the mesoscale
enhancement over southern Lake Michigan, perhaps the best potential
for minor accumulations will be in the M-59 to I-94 corridor area
where some enhanced forcing will extend eastward from the actual
vorticity center, particularly over the higher terrain of northwest
Metro area on southwest into the Irish Hills.

Most exciting part of this entire event so I am tracking it. 

[BDT]

20 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

This latest dud of a series of storm systems (for my area at least) left us in East Central Nebraska with just a few flurries and more cold and annoying wind… wash, rinse and repeat.

Just when we think things will change, it continues to get worse...Starting to doubt all of this "above average snowfall season" talk

[tStacsh]

Snowfall probability for tomorrow.  1 in 10 chance of 3".  Woot.  But likely .5" at most on the grass.  

[Bryan1117]

6 hours ago, BDT said:

Just when we think things will change, it continues to get worse...Starting to doubt all of this "above average snowfall season" talk

At this point I don’t really even care if it’s rain, sleet, or snow… we just need to get some consistent moisture here - too many periods of dry weather mixed with big storm systems that either cut north or miss to the south (seems like we are always in the dry slot).

Another dry winter for Nebraska/ Iowa could spell even bigger issues next spring and summer.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Snowfall probability for tomorrow.  1 in 10 chance of 3".  Woot.  But likely .5" at most on the grass.  

IF DTW got that 0.1" on Halloween it would be historic, tying the all-time record amount for the date. LOL, early snow climo here is almost non-existent. Nice to see snow maps again tho.

[jaster220]

Last night's rainfall performed a little better than it was looking like it would. 3-day "event total" coming in a bit shy of 1/2" here in Canton Twnshp. 

[james1976]

Getting my first flakes of the season! Forecast for 1-2" and its getting windy. Nice potent early season clipper.

[Madtown]

Ground turning white here

[Tom]

10 hours ago, james1976 said:

Getting my first flakes of the season! Forecast for 1-2" and its getting windy. Nice potent early season clipper.

My friend who lives on the west side of MSP sent me a video of it ripping fatties right when that initial band went through the city.  Nice 1st taste of Winter!

[Tom]

Here’s the vid…  

 

[james1976]

Eyeballed 3" when I left for work this morning. Definitely more than forecasted. Less accumulation on roads. Nice first taste of winter on Halloween!

[Tom]

My old neighbor just sent this…

 

 

[Tom]

LOT issued a rare Winter Weather Advisory for LES in NE IL.  1-3” expected…interesting…

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

LOT issued a rare Winter Weather Advisory for LES in NE IL.  1-3” expected…interesting…

Most certainly a "rare" map, and not just for Halloween! Left work at 4:45, hit first flakes 1/4 mile down the road.