November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

Yeah, I was hoping to get off to an early start for once. Guess not.

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Yeah the Black Friday system basically just dried up completely east of the Rockies. Looks like a non event here in Iowa. 

Yep. Really not seeing any true arctic intrusion into the CONUS besides a very brief period (1 day?) and it only comes far enough south to cover MI/WI really. 

In a way, I think this may bode well for the winter. Besides the Halloween blast, we are not getting the cold autumn that strong Nino's are known for around here. Typically, resident air masses that can support snow fall don't happen for SEMI until closer to Christmas, so we're about a month away at least around here. 

[GDR]

Wait a couple of weeks then things might turn

[jaster220]

One year ago this evening  visiblity was bliz-level at DTW:

It ripped hard and dropped about an inch in 30 minutes or maybe less. It was a brief wall of white as a LES streamer from the ongoing storm in WMI held together like a fire hose all the way across the state. Nothing remotely close going on so far this November.

[jaster220]

These cold pools just east/NE in ONT have been a recurring theme. After a slight over-achievement in the high temperature department, the mercury dropped like a rock after sunset. Was already readings in the 20s inside the UHI of the burbs an hour ago. 

[Clinton]

Light snow is showing up on the Euro for black Friday once again as a chunk of energy might hold together just long enough to give KC and mby our first inch of snow this season.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a sunny and mild late November day with a H/L of 52/32. There was no rain or snow fall and the sun was out 97% of the possible time. After several windy days it was a much calmer day with a the highest wind of just 13MPH. For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 71 was set in 1930 and the record low of 13 was set in 1969. The wettest day was in 1981 with 1.27” of that 4.4” fell as snow. The most snow fall of 11.5” fell in 2000. Last year the H/L was 27/18 there was 0.7” of snow fall and the 10” on the ground is the most for this date. Once again the overnight low was colder here in MBY then the official reading at GRR. Th low looks to have been 31 at the airport while here in MBY it fell to 26. At the current time it is cloudy and 33 both here and at the airport.

[westMJim]

Michigan weather history for November 20

Southwest Michigan 

1869: More than a foot of snow fell at Lansing, setting a record for the most ever recorded during the month of November.

2000: An intense lake effect snow squall dropped almost a foot of snow on Grand Rapids, setting a record for the most snow on a November day there

Southeast Michigan

1957, an F3 tornado hit Wayne County at 6:50 pm resulting in 12 injuries and 1 death and costing $250,000 in damages.

Other part of the US

1900: An unusual tornado outbreak in the Lower Mississippi Valley resulted in 73 deaths and extensive damage across Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

1985: Kate intensified to a major Category 3 Hurricane as she moved west of Key West, Florida with top winds of 115 mph and a minimum central pressure of 954 millibars or 28.17 inches of mercury. The next day Kate made landfall between Panama City and Apalachicola, Florida. Tides ran 8 to 10 feet above normal. Many power poles and lines were downed. Several roads were washed out.

2014: From the NWS Office in Buffalo, New York, “The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo’s snowy history.  Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north.   There were 13 fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses and structural failures, 1000s of stranded motorists, and scattered food and gas shortages due to impassable roads.  Numerous trees also gave way due to the weight of the snow, causing isolated power outages.  While this storm was impressive on its own, a second lake effect event on Nov-19-20 dropped another 1-4 feet of snow over nearly the same area and compounded rescue and recovery efforts.  Storm totals from the two storms peaked at almost 7 feet, with many areas buried under 3-4 feet of dense snowpack by the end of the event.”

2015: The season’s first snow is Chicago’s largest November snowfall in 120 years starting on November 20 and ending on the 21st. The season’s first snowfall dropped as much as 17 inches across Chicago’s northern suburbs, and the total of 11.2 inches at O’Hare International Airport made it the largest November snowfall in 120 years

 

[gimmesnow]

I am conflicted. This time last year I was snowboarding, but the rest of the winter sucked. Yesterday I went out on my stand up jet ski for one last ride before it gets too cold. Hope the rest of the winter can make up for this, losing a few weeks at the start of the season is huge, especially if it doesn't start until holidays, because those times are so busy and ridiculous it's not worth going.

[chescowxman]

Today will be almost 10 degrees colder in spots compared to yesterday. A nice sunny fall day before rain moves in tomorrow morning. There is a chance some higher spots in NW Chesco could see a few flakes of snow or some ice pellets if the precipitation moves in fast enough in the AM. Either way it looks like between 1.5" to 2.0" of rain are possible tomorrow with chilly temps remaining in the low to mid 40's across the county. Below normal temps and dry weather look likely for the rest of the holiday week.

Records for today: High 75 (1985) / Low 16 (1951) / Rain 1.80 (1952) / Snow 0.8" (1937)

[Jayhawker85]

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

[Tom]

Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

I’m going to sometime this week as I’m still trying to figure out the cycle length.  That’s not to say we have pretty much seen where this years pattern anchor troughs and ridges have developed.  

[jaster220]

Clouds have pushed into lower MI a bit earlier than forecasted keeping temps from taking off like they did under sunny skies yesterday morning. Outside the UHI effects, mostly have 30s with the winds at some airports already frisky. A rather brisk day before the storm in progress.

[Andie]

A cold front arrives today with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest coverage of storms will be east of I-35, where there is a severe weather threat. The primary concerns will be damaging winds and hail. All east of DFW  

Cooler air will filter in for the middle of the week with highs only in the 50s. Typical Texas Thanksgiving week. They’re either a bit too warm or you’re freezing your face off.
Highs this week 50’s/60’s.  

[bud2380]

What's all this talk about an Oma-dome over Omaha??  LOL.  You can't make this up.  Total troll job by the GFS.  Really boring start to winter though.  Ideally we'd see the northern plains and northern MI, WI starting to see snow lay down, but even they aren't seeing anything.  

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Yeah, not real impressed with what the models are showing over the next ten or more days. It seems like more of the same, with the vast majority of the central US receiving less than a half inch of precip over that time period. 

Outside of some potential light flurries this coming weekend, pretty much hitting the snooze button again. Such a boring pattern we've been stuck in for so long. Just can't get any storm systems to get their act together in the slightest. 

[Black Hole]

What was looking like a promising stretch is down to just one storm that might do something, that'll be the 25-26th. For this storm we will have the closed low west of the area moving east as a deep trough digs down to the north. Previously it looked really cold, now it will only marginally be cold enough for snow. The storm track isn't ideal either with the core of the upper low passing well north of the area. So this will probably just end up being some cold rain if it does anything at all.

Then, as others noted, it looks pretty boring into early December. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

[bud2380]

19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

Frustrating map.  Just completely dies out as it heads east.  I'd be happy for you and those in the western half of NE.  Would be a nice start to the snow season out there.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro is back with a snowstorm this weekend for especially Central and Western Nebraska. We’ll have to see. 
 

The model trends have been good with this today. The 18z GFS has brought it back as well.  I have a feeling the trends will continue to be good as the AO and NAO or going negative and that could help the trough be less positively tilted.

[james1976]

GFS keeps the trough going into next week with a potential clipper early next week. Nice to see the system showing back up for this weekend too.

[gimmesnow]

8 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Is anyone going to take a stab at making their winter predictions since we are firmly entrenched in the new LRC and pretty seen how this winter will will/may play out 

I'm not very good at these things but my random guess is a sputtering of winter until new years, january thaw, then brutal last 3 weeks of January and first 2 weeks of february with an early spring with some stat padding storms at the very end, like late march early april. I think it's going to be one of those winters where there's like two weeks of absolute winter paradise and the rest is really hit or miss. But I hope it's cold enough the snow can stay around and the ski hills can not go through too much freeze thaw.

[CentralNebWeather]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The model trends have been good with this today. The 18z GFS has brought it back as well.  I have a feeling the trends will continue to be good as the AO and NAO or going negative and that could help the trough be less positively tilted.

Looks very similar indeed. Will be fun to see how it evolves this week. We are home for Thanksgiving, so don’t have to worry about any travel concerns. Turkey, family, football, and snow. Sounds great. 

[jaster220]

@tStacsh

GEM hinting at a little action this coming Sunday night wrt LES

[Andie]

We had a gorgeous day today with a High of 72, sunny, picture perfect.  It will repeat tomorrow. 57 High 35 Low 

Wed, Thurs, Fri  will change up with Highs of 58-60 and Lows of 38-42.  

Rain free, but cloudy.  
Could be a lot worse.  We’ll take it!!

Happy Thanksgiving !

[Northland09]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

I'm not very good at these things but my random guess is a sputtering of winter until new years, january thaw, then brutal last 3 weeks of January and first 2 weeks of february with an early spring with some stat padding storms at the very end, like late march early april. I think it's going to be one of those winters where there's like two weeks of absolute winter paradise and the rest is really hit or miss. But I hope it's cold enough the snow can stay around and the ski hills can not go through too much freeze thaw.

I'm not very good at predicting what could happen either, but I'm going to compare this winter (at least for MN) to that of the 2012-2013 winter season. Everything is mimicking the same as that fall/winter so far. So with that being said, we're going to have a snowstorm or two in December, barely anything in January, and we'll get slammed in February and March. Temps those years were above average as well. As long as we have a white Christmas, I'll be happy. Anything after that is a bonus!

[Clinton]

0z models continuing the trend for a wintery storm this weekend, the Euro was the first to get back on the bandwagon and hopefully it's 0z run will continue that. The ICON, GFS, CMC and UKMET with the GFS is running a little warmer than the other models.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/30. There was a trace of rain/snow fall. There was 0% of sun. The highest wind of 31MPH was out of the E.  For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1913 and the record low of 10 was set in 2014. The wettest was 1.31” in 1979 the most snow fall was 4” in 1896 the most snow on the ground was 13” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 40/22 and there was 7” of snow on the ground. At the current time there is a cold rain falling with a temperature of 35. To the NE of the Grand Rapids metro area there is some light snow and freezing rain falling.

Weather history for SW lower Michigan for November 21

1880: Bitterly cold conditions prevail across Lower Michigan. It’s the coldest November day on record at Lansing with a high of only 12 degrees. The low of four below zero is the earliest subzero temperature on record there.

1913: Record warmth prevails across Lower Michigan with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The 70-degree reading at Grand Rapids is a late-season record.

Weather history for SE lower Michigan for November 21

2015, a record-setting snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan. Snow began early in the day and gradually increased in intensity with widespread snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. A particularly intense band brought rates upwards of 3 inches per hour to Howell, where a storm total of 16.8 inches was reported. In fact, numerous locations reported snowfall amounts between 10 and 16.8 inches in Livingston and Oakland Counties. The NWS office in White Lake measured 15.5″ making it the largest snowstorm the office has seen since it was built in 1994.

1913, Detroit experienced record highs for two days with 67 degrees on the 21st and 69 degrees on the 22nd.

US weather history for November 21

November 21st – 23rd tornado outbreak was the 3rd largest outbreak in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks ever recorded. There was no break in tornado activity from 1:30 pm on the 21st when the tornadoes started in Texas until 7:30 am on the 23rd when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina. On this date, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston metro area in Texas. At one time, there were three on the ground in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, tracked 20 miles through the eastern suburbs of Houston destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 more. In total, 23 tornadoes struck Mississippi and Alabama. An F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile track through 7 Mississippi counties. The deadliest tornado of 1992, an F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile path through 7 counties in Mississippi, one of the bodies was blown a quarter mile into a tree. 

 

[chescowxman]

Some of our neighbors to the west in Lancaster County have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.

Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Euro. 

[tStacsh]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@tStacsh

GEM hinting at a little action this coming Sunday night wrt LES

It keeps flashing that signal, but the local mets aren't confident yet.   

"ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR   THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS PERIOD SO   CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN   TRAVEL SO THAT PERIOD WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS."

[Tom]

The 2nd storm for this Holiday week is finally back on the models and likely will be our next Storm Thread.  Glad to see moisture being shown out here in the 4 corners as the trough really digs into the SW.  Slowly but surely we are starting to see a better overall pattern for storms to track into my region, esp as we flip into DEC...how about a little bit of #SWFlow anyone???

[gimmesnow]

This transition stage when models can't figure anything out is the most exciting weather forecasting time of the season.

[sumweatherdude]

Forecast for the coming week from November 6 compared to what's actually going to happen.

[bud2380]

GFS for the weekend system.  Increasing totals in Iowa a bit with each run.  We may have a shovelable event.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS for the weekend system.  Increasing totals in Iowa a bit with each run.  We may have a shovelable event.

 

Euro and GFS are fairly similar in amounts. 

[bud2380]

UK

 

[bud2380]

For those further west.  Here is the UK again.  Really nice event shaping up for the NW half of KS and south central and SW NE.  

 

[Clinton]

Canadian on board also.

[bud2380]

Euro is pretty weak this way, but the general idea is there.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS has fallen off a cliff in recent 500mb pattern skill scores. Ouch. 

[Clinton]

Started a thread for the weekend system.

[jaster220]

I see my sister out in far SWSD is under a Winter Storm Watch now. They thought that the earlier storm would hit them, but it ended up a bit too far N. Maybe this will work out for them.

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It keeps flashing that signal, but the local mets aren't confident yet.   

"ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR   THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS PERIOD SO   CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN   TRAVEL SO THAT PERIOD WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS."

Hmm. I just read their AFD written by Duke and he sounded quite convinced there will be something happening. 

[Tom]

Happy Hump Day!  Do you guys feel the Holiday spirit?  The days are getting cooler and especially the mornings out here as winter is settling in out here in AZ.  My sister and her Family flew in late on Saturday so we have been pretty occupied.  I'm so looking forward to some good ol' family time for Thanksgiving tomorrow.  Temps today should be about avg in the mid 70's and about the same tomorrow.  Make it a great day!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/34 there was cold rain with 0.74” falling. There was no sunshine the highest wind speed was 27 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the high highest for the day is 66 in 1913 the record low of 13 was set in 1929 the record rain fall of 1.38” fell in 2010. The record snow fall of 7” fell in 1898 the most snow on the ground was 11” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 42/18 and there was 4” of snow on the ground.

SW Michigan weather history for November 22

1866: Seven inches of snow piles up in Lansing as temperatures plunge to the single digits.

1963: President John Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas. The weather in Lower Michigan is unusually warm with morning lows around 50 degrees and afternoon highs in the 60s. The month ends up being one of the warmest November on record.

SE Michigan weather history for November 22

 1880, there was an exceptionally early cold wave in Detroit which commenced on the 18th and lasted 6 days all with record lows with the bottom hitting zero on the 22nd. This resulted from an arctic high pressure measuring near 31.00″ over Ohio.

1909, 2.59″ of precipitation fell in Detroit. This is the record maximum precipitation for the month of November in Detroit.

US weather history for November 22

1992: 45 tornadoes touched down in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Georgia was hard hit with two F4, one F3, and three F2 tornadoes that killed six people and injured 144. Indiana had a total of 15 tornadoes on this day to set a record for an outbreak in November and for the month of November. One, an F4 multiple-vortex type, cut a 22-mile path through extreme southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This tornado debunked the myth that twisters don’t cross rivers, as this devastating tornado crossed the Ohio River twice. Indiana had a total of 15 tornadoes on this day to set two state records, the largest November tornado outbreak, and the most tornadoes in November. This tornado outbreak made a significant contribution to what was to become the biggest November ever for the U.S. concerning the number of tornadoes.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not much to talk about system-wise, at least for up here, so let's take a look at temperatures instead: today marks our last day of an average temperature at freezing or above. Tomorrow, our average temperature drops to 31 and won't hit freezing again until March 10. Hello winter! 

[Tom]

My LR call for 2 storms this week is manifesting as we speak, but my attn is now focused on the development of a -NAO as we flip the Calendar into MET Winter.  Where is that Greenland Block?  It appears its a knockin' on the door step at the tail end of this month.  This will have a big influence in the storm track during the 1st part of DEC.  

0z EPS...