November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.37” of the wet stuff overnight. 4.73” on the month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

I understand Jim. For many reasons, 2023 has been one of the hardest years of my life so far. I‘m sorry it’s been such a tough one for you too. There are so many difficult things in this life that we can’t control. But there are others that we absolutely can. So at the very least, I would like to extend the olive branch to you and maybe we can work on being friends again.

[Cascadia_Wx]

So much heavy rain overnight, but now as day breaks, showers are moving to the north, out of the area, and the south winds have kicked in. It really has been a noticeable timing thing this month so far. At any rate picked up over an inch of rain overnight, closing in on 3.5” mtd.

PDX is now well above average for the water year to date, and quickly approaching average for year to date.

[Meatyorologist]

Beautiful gray Autumn morning. Radar looks nice to the south.

[GobBluth]

968mb low offshore Eureka at day 9.5.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

968mb low offshore Eureka at day 9.5.

Forgot about earlier starting runs... one nice advantage of falling back.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is not real wet over the next days... but also appears to be a generally warmer than normal pattern with troughing activity focused to the west and south overall.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year.

A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.  Also a number of other family members and a friend.  A really terrible year in that regard.  

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

I also want to bring up the fact that the deterioration of my relationship with Jesse on here was also really making me depressed earlier in the year.  I really want to avoid all of that this season.

Jim, my condolences on your losses. It will get better with time, just hang in there buddy. Once we get to track our first Arctic Blast of the winter I bet your mood will pick back up and you will get excited again. Just don’t get discouraged if it doesn’t happen until January but it will come eventually. I think mid to late January is going to be our best chance this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enjoyed the break the past couple weeks, but safe to say Tim has not lost a step!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Enjoyed the break the past couple weeks, but safe to say Tim has not lost a step!

No idea what this means.   I called out what was a pretty ruthless take down last spring that appears to still bother Jim.    It is what it is.  

[fubario]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is not real wet over the next days... but also appears to be a generally warmer than normal pattern with troughing activity focused to the west and south overall.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

Its just the GFS... the 00Z EPS was wetter than normal over the next 2 weeks.  

[Slushy Inch]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Forgot about earlier starting runs... one nice advantage of falling back.   

A very nice advantage 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its just the GFS... the 00Z EPS was wetter than normal over the next 2 weeks.  

What is absolute precip forecast? Wettest time of year even normal or slightly drier is probably pretty wet

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea what this means.   I called out what was a pretty ruthless take down last spring that appears to still bother Jim.    It is what it is.  

He learned the lesson on Jesse that every finds out at some point. No matter what kind of ally you believe you are he will turn on you without warning. You are just being opportunistic. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just bought weatherbell for the season. I don’t like the Euro monthlies. I hope a mega windstorm can salvage this winter. We are due, last big one be lasted like 2 hours.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He learned the lesson on Jesse that every finds out at some point. No matter what kind of ally you believe you are he will turn on you without warning. You are just being opportunistic. 

I’m sorry you feel that way, but that really isn’t an accurate representation of who I am. It’s actually sort of ironic since you are basically displaying the sort of behavior you’re describing with this post. As you have in the past as well. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sorry you feel that way, but that really isn’t an accurate representation of who I am. It’s actually sort of ironic since you are basically displaying the sort of behavior you’re describing with this post. As you have in the past as well. 

You downvote like every one of my posts. I don’t know why

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sorry you feel that way, but that really isn’t an accurate representation of who I am. It’s actually sort of ironic since you are basically displaying the sort of behavior you’re describing with this post. As you have in the past as well. 

Look at us. Tim’s back and we are immediately tearing each other apart after two weeks of detente. I was actually defending you in a back handed way. We all know Tim doesn’t actually care that you offended Jim. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

You downvote like every one of my posts. I don’t know why

I’ve never taken reacts all that seriously. I guess not everyone feels that way.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He learned the lesson on Jesse that every finds out at some point. No matter what kind of ally you believe you are he will turn on you without warning. You are just being opportunistic. 

I am not entirely clear on what you mean by opportunistic... but I am definitely relating it back to what I said yesterday about the mocking being done without quoting or having a conversation.   Its a frequent occurrence and what happened to Jim is a perfect example.    

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve never taken reacts all that seriously. I guess not everyone feels that way.

I’m not really that bothered by it. Thought it was odd.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at us. Tim’s back and we are immediately tearing each other apart after two weeks of detente. I was actually defending you in a back handed way. We all know Tim doesn’t actually care that you offended Jim. 

This is so wrong.   I do feel bad for Jim.   Such a cynical view.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not entirely clear on what you mean opportunistic... but I am definitely relating it back to what I said yesterday about the mocking being done without quoting or having a conversation.   Its a frequent occurrence and what happened to Jim is a perfect example.    

Jim references a spat with Jesse, you weaponize this reference to grind your own ax with Jesse. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

A lot of people have had a rough 2023, and of course we turned our clocks back last weekend adding one hour to this already crappy year.

 

this seemed appropriate…

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim references a spat with Jesse, you weaponize this reference to grind your own ax with Jesse. 

I don't want any axes.    I try to make conversation with everyone including Jesse.  That is the best way for people to get along.  It diffuses any disagreements.    I know exactly what Jim is referring to because Jesse does it all the time.   And not just to me and him.    Just recently our Port Angeles friend mentioned not wanting early frost and that set off another run of mocking posts about gardening.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

A lot of people have had a rough 2023, and of course we turned our clocks back last weekend adding one hour to this already crappy year.

 

this seemed appropriate…

Just getting back the hour we lost last spring.  

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

You downvote like every one of my posts. I don’t know why

He’s basically just a bully.  He’ll claim he is just playing around or it’s not meant to be taken seriously so he doesn’t have to own up to the character that he chooses to be on the forum. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

He’s basically just a bully.  He’ll claim he is just playing around or it’s not meant to be taken seriously so he doesn’t have to own up to the character that he chooses to be on the forum. 

Well said.

[Cascadia_Wx]

I don’t know what to tell everyone. I’ve been making a conscious effort to post better content lately and not participate in the flame wars like the ones being started today. And I will keep trying to improve going forward. Really all I can do.

Edited November 6 by Cascadia_Wx

[ShawniganLake]

It’s been relatively dry up here since yesterday morning. Only 0.11” of rain since then.  It has sure looked incredibly active to the south the past couple days  

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t know what to tell everyone. I’ve been making a conscious effort to post better content lately and not participate in the flame wars like the ones being started today. And I will keep trying to improve going forward. Really all I can do.

The reality is that you do fully participate without quoting people or actually making conversation... which allows you to say you aren't participating. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just getting back the hour we lost last spring.  

Granted, but its still adding an hour to a year that cannot get over soon enough for a lot of people (myself included).  And yes, I  realize that at 12:01am on January 1, 2024  everyone's life/situation is not going to magically get better.....

 

oh, and it's a funny meme.....at least I thought so....

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Granted, but its still adding an hour to a year that cannot get over soon enough for a lot of people (myself included).  And yes, I  realize that at 12:01am on January 1, 2024  everyone's life/situation is not going to magically get better.....

 

oh, and it's a funny meme.....at least I thought so....

Definitely seemed appropriate given what has apparently been a rough year for many here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m over it. How bout that EPS!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m over it. How bout that EPS!

Not much else to say.

And the 12Z EPS starts running at 11 a.m. now! 

[umadbro]

Sometimes I can’t tell the difference between a weather forum and days of our lives here. Good grief.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet morning in the Albany/Corvallis metroplex. Doesn’t seem overly heavy though. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a band with some areas of heavy precip is rotating in from the SW this morning. Could be a wet late morning and early afternoon in the Portland metro.

[Phil]

8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Plenty of good ballgames happening if you like that. Plus college basketball starts later today!

Unfortunately I’ll be busy trying to rehabilitate my herniated disc(s). Am only allowed to sit for 1hr/day which is making life..challenging. Lmao.

The only sport I follow these days is baseball so I’m out of luck there. Oh, and I’m still rehabbing myself from alcohol and tbh that is possibly more difficult for me than back injury. My fault I let it creep back into my life.

Ohh, and to top it off, I’m finishing my last semester at college and doing it remotely is a pain, I have to lie down to write/type and present over zoom. Sucks.

I keep looking at that bottle of oxy my doc prescribed me sitting on my windowsill, and it takes every fiber of my being not to take it.  

I need some weather to keep me distracted. But autumn is always boring here, especially during El Niño (2015 was so awful I basically stopped following the weather until January, can’t do that again).

I’m in twaable. Lol.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Sometimes I can’t tell the difference between a weather forum and days of our lives here. Good grief.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF pivots a moisture band over western WA and SW BC for a very wet weekend ahead.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

In the midst of all of this the weather has become slightly less of an obsession for me, and I feel I might have more clarity on the subject than I have in a long due to it being a less emotional thing for me at this point.  We shall see how that plays out.

Your recent assessments for this winter are right in line with what can reasonably be expected, IMO.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Time change sucks... I normally get up between 5-5:30 so here I am wide awake at 4:30 now.   

That’s when I’ve been getting to bed. Would gladly trade since I’m tired af in the morning.

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He learned the lesson on Jesse that every finds out at some point. No matter what kind of ally you believe you are he will turn on you without warning. You are just being opportunistic. 

I don’t see that in Jesse. Online communication is easy to misconstrue (I’m guilty of it all the time) and Jesse has a very straightforward communication style, that may seem abrasive to some, but it really isn’t. At least not to me.

He and I disagree and exchange downvotes every now and then but there are more important things in life than an emoticon button on a weather forum. Just my opinion, of course.

[TT-SEA]

@DareDuck check your inbox.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s when I’ve been getting to bed. Would gladly trade since I’m tired af in the morning.

I don’t see that in Jesse. Online communication is easy to misconstrue (I’m guilty of it all the time) and Jesse has a very straightforward communication style, that may seem abrasive to some, but it really isn’t. At least not to me.

He and I disagree and exchange downvotes every now and then but there are more important things in life than an emoticon button on a weather forum. Just my opinion, of course.

Easy to miss unless you are on the receiving end.   As others can attest to.  

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unfortunately I’ll be busy trying to rehabilitate my herniated disc(s). Am only allowed to sit for 1hr/day which is making life..challenging. Lmao.

The only sport I follow these days is baseball so I’m out of luck there. Oh, and I’m still rehabbing myself from alcohol and tbh that is possibly more difficult for me than back injury. My fault I let it creep back into my life.

Ohh, and to top it off, I’m finishing my last semester at college and doing it remotely is a pain, I have to lie down to write/type and present over zoom. Sucks.

I keep looking at that bottle of oxy my doc prescribed me sitting on my windowsill, and it takes every fiber of my being not to take it.  

I need some weather to keep me distracted. But autumn is always boring here, especially during El Niño (2015 was so awful I basically stopped following the weather until January, can’t do that again).

I’m in twaable. Lol.

Dude. If you’ve had trouble with substance abuse or any kind in the past….I strongly encourage you to give that bottle of oxy to a loved one and allow them to administer it to you if you really need it.   Sounds like you’re setting yourself up to fail. 

[MossMan]

It was a wild start to November last year! 

[the_convergence_zone]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF pivots a moisture band over western WA and SW BC for a very wet weekend ahead.

Looks like a weakening frontal boundary stalls out over the area on Saturday and then a wave kicks it into high gear on Sunday into Monday. It will be interesting to see if the ensembles go along with that one, I have a feeling they will be all over the place on location and timing. 

And then there's a 970s low approaching the coast behind that mid-next week. 

Certainly a juicy run that gives us something to potentially low forward to. Today's system is a total dud. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Dude. If you’ve had trouble with substance abuse or any kind in the past….I strongly encourage you to give that bottle of oxy to a loved one and allow them to administer it to you if you really need it.   Sounds like you’re setting yourself up to fail. 

I don’t plan on taking them at all. I’d give the bottle to my gf but she’s also struggled with substance abuse in the past. I’m not going to put my burdens on anyone but me. Period.

Also I don’t have the same hookup for opioids. Not sure why. I’ve been on Ox in the past without issues. Am being careful now because my mental health isn’t the best it could be, so I’m probably more vulnerable to addiction if I slip.