November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Dude. If you’ve had trouble with substance abuse or any kind in the past….I strongly encourage you to give that bottle of oxy to a loved one and allow them to administer it to you if you really need it.   Sounds like you’re setting yourself up to fail. 

Agree on this one, my uncle struggled with addiction his whole adult life, he got clean for a decade or so and had a family, hobbies, etc. Then in his late 40s back pain ended up doing him in (he died of an overdose). Entirely avoidable if he had gotten help through proper channels. So good on you @Phil for being open with this community about what you're going through and I hope your back gets better. 

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t plan on taking them at all. I’d give the bottle to my gf but she’s also struggled with substance abuse in the past. I’m not going to put my burdens on anyone but me. Period.

Also I don’t have the same hookup for opioids. Not sure why. I’ve been on Ox in the past without issues. Am being careful now because my mental health isn’t the best it could be, so I’m probably more vulnerable to addiction if I slip.

Rough stuff... genuinely concerned about you buddy.   You can message me any time.   Not just a weather forum... we are real people.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF pivots a moisture band over western WA and SW BC for a very wet weekend ahead.

Great. Warm and humid down here. 

[Phil]

Guidance in pretty good agreement the PV (in terms of 10mb zonal wind) will approach if not exceed the record maximum for mid/late November. Going to be an absolute beast. Which also suggests MJO amplitude will be diminished thanks to increased stability under a compromised MC (tropical tropopause warm+shallow).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A year ago today. Leaves never even turned… 

[Slushy Inch]

Always nice to see negative 500mb anomalies.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rough stuff... genuinely concerned about you buddy.   You can message me any time.   Not just a weather forum... we are real people.  

Thank you. Have been in worse shape before, so I’m better able to identify when things are about to get bad. I’m definitely not to that point yet.

[Slushy Inch]

Funny how unhinged the control can be. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Guidance in pretty good agreement the PV (in terms of 10mb zonal wind) will approach if not exceed the record maximum for mid/late November. Going to be an absolute beast. Which also suggests MJO amplitude will be diminished thanks to increased stability under a compromised MC (tropical tropopause warm+shallow).

FYI this isn’t a death sentence for winter. But it suggests (IMO) that a cold/blocky start is unlikely, and that the next 6 weeks will trend warmer w/ time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

FYI this isn’t a death sentence for winter. But it suggests (IMO) that a cold/blocky start is unlikely, and that the next 6 weeks will trend warmer w/ time.

Locally it can’t really get much warmer relative to average than it has been this past week.

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t plan on taking them at all. I’d give the bottle to my gf but she’s also struggled with substance abuse in the past. I’m not going to put my burdens on anyone but me. Period.

Also I don’t have the same hookup for opioids. Not sure why. I’ve been on Ox in the past without issues. Am being careful now because my mental health isn’t the best it could be, so I’m probably more vulnerable to addiction if I slip.

Lock them in your disaster prep bin and forget about them. If S hits the fan and there are major injuries in your household from a major natural or man made disaster they could come in quite handy if a hospital is not an option. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Funny how unhinged the control can be. 

Funny how 850mb temps are barely below average w/ that beast. And even above average up in BC. Need to get some cold air onto our side of the pole.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Locally it can’t really get much warmer relative to average than it has been this past week.

That is how you rapidly make up rainfall deficits at this time of year.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is how you rapidly make up rainfall deficits at this time of year.   

First week of November was wetter and MUCH colder last year. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Locally it can’t really get much warmer relative to average than it has been this past week.

Fair point. Though I’ve told myself precisely that in the past, and Mother Nature always throws it back in my face. Lol

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First week of November was wetter and MUCH colder last year. 

Pretty rare... generally the best way to get copious rain in November is with torching.  

[NWbyNW]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I had 5 consecutive lows below 30 late last month.

We had temps in the 30s but nothing below freezing yet.  This occurring during that stretch of dry weather maybe two weeks ago.  Otherwise it has been overcast or showers. Yesterday it was overcast with some rain and 66.  So very mild to warm temps. Currently 54 and light showers.

[icyasf]

1 year ago today it was snowing 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54 with some rain. Occasionally heavier amounts then back to sprinkles.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS hints at slightly cooler than normal temps in mid/late NOV out west. Extended is decent for DEC too, but that is far out. The latest monthlies weren’t good. But weeklies are much better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty rare... generally the best way to get copious rain in November is with torching.  

Looking at the top 10 wet November's at SLE there is not a strong signal either way. The wettest November by far was in 1896 which was also one of the coldest November's of all-time. 1973 was wet and cold, similar to the beginning of last November. Here is the top 10 for SLE and the monthly temp departures. Yes, some of the wet periods of the month were warm, but overall a wet November is just as likely to end up below normal. All that being said this month is unlikely to be in the top 10, IMO. 

1) 1896 -6.7F

2) 1973 -2.3

3) 2006 +0.6

4) 1942 -0.5

5) 1984 -1.9

6) 1998 +1.4

7) 1897 -0.5

8  1937 +2.5

9) 1945 -0.5

10) 1909 +0.4

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

FYI this isn’t a death sentence for winter. But it suggests (IMO) that a cold/blocky start is unlikely, and that the next 6 weeks will trend warmer w/ time.

I’m not putting much faith in December but I hope I’m wrong. I believe things will turn blocky in January. Last half of January for an Arctic Blast is going to be our best chance IMHO.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the top 10 wet November's at SLE there is not a strong signal either way. The wettest November by far was in 1896 which was also one of the coldest November's of all-time. 1973 was wet and cold, similar to the beginning of last November. Here is the top 10 for SLE and the monthly temp departures. Yes, some of the wet periods of the month were warm, but overall a wet November is just as likely to end up below normal. All that being said this month is unlikely to be in the top 10, IMO. 

1) 1896 -6.7F

2) 1973 -2.3

3) 2006 +0.6

4) 1942 -0.5

5) 1984 -1.9

6) 1998 +1.4

7) 1897 -0.5

8  1937 +2.5

9) 1945 -0.5

10) 1909 +0.4

Obviously we don’t want this year to be a standard El Niño year. So a November that is wet and stormy more like a La Niña Nov is a good sign.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, RentonHill said:

I REALLY want to tackle that sob for some reason

Head shot? Wrapping the ankles? or shoulder into ribs? Clearly a defenseless Turkey.

00z GFS in 6 hours 45 minutes

[Chewbacca Defense]

I don’t think we got more than a dusting up here, this is my puppy’s (not a puppy any more) first time seeing snow on November 7th of last year.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

For most of us here we just post our observations, reports, various frames from specific model runs, and that's about it. Some post detailed analysis, and historical information or statistics. Others just lurk and rarely comment. For others there are greater complexities present due to past dust-ups, maybe someone was condescending, or snarky one too many times, maybe someone was obviously trolling another, or an argument broke out which for some has turned into long running feuds at times. That much is obvious too.

I will just say everyone should put forth an effort to not troll others, and not be condescending, or snarky. That often leads to issues which also can and does end up involving others who may have good intentions, but nonetheless that can lead to pitting members against each other. Never a good thing. Even if that doesn't occur it tends to ruin the overall vibe and atmosphere with members not having as good of a time as they normally would, and for some is turns them off completely either not posting, or leaving the forum altogether. That doesn't diminish or say we can't partake in some harmless ribbing, sarcasm, or banter. I enjoy it and many do. There is a line though and everyone has their limit or tolerance level for certain things. Try to keep that in mind. Peace out.

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 30 minutes

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just bought weatherbell for the season. I don’t like the Euro monthlies. I hope a mega windstorm can salvage this winter. We are due, last big one be lasted like 2 hours.

do you enjoy power outages?

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you enjoy power outages?

I do! Because the longer the outage the more epic that force of nature was! Just that roar through the trees is a sound that never gets old. Love it! Though I am prepared for outages and the disruption is fairly minimal as our generator powers the essentials. Outages are just a way of life in my area. 

[Phishy Wx]

been calling a winter dud this year since late spring.  gunna stick to it, given latest PV trends.  December may be toast if that's true.  maybe a window of fun around New Years

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do you enjoy power outages?

We seem to avoid them so far at my apartment. I cant stop windstorms, but I can enjoy them. I actually thought the power going out was fun when I was a kid.

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

EPS hints at slightly cooler than normal temps in mid/late NOV out west. Extended is decent for DEC too, but that is far out. The latest monthlies weren’t good. But weeklies are much better.

The EPS weeklies are actually pretty ridgy/dry in W-Canada/PNW after this +NPO pattern terminates, though there’s one shot of continental air in the middle of that.

Progression looks exactly like the monthlies to me.

[TT-SEA]

50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the top 10 wet November's at SLE there is not a strong signal either way. The wettest November by far was in 1896 which was also one of the coldest November's of all-time. 1973 was wet and cold, similar to the beginning of last November. Here is the top 10 for SLE and the monthly temp departures. Yes, some of the wet periods of the month were warm, but overall a wet November is just as likely to end up below normal. All that being said this month is unlikely to be in the top 10, IMO. 

1) 1896 -6.7F

2) 1973 -2.3

3) 2006 +0.6

4) 1942 -0.5

5) 1984 -1.9

6) 1998 +1.4

7) 1897 -0.5

8  1937 +2.5

9) 1945 -0.5

10) 1909 +0.4

Interesting.  Maybe the wet periods are mostly in the warm periods but it doesn't always show up in the monthly stats.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The EPS weeklies are actually pretty ridgy/dry in W-Canada/PNW after this +NPO pattern terminates. One shot of continental air into the intermountain west thereafter.

Progression looks exactly like the monthlies to me.

There are two periods on the weeklies that look interesting to me. Nov 22nd and Dec 9. The amount of ridging in the Gulf of Alaska may at least give some frosty nights. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Given how long it's been since we had a decent windstorm and what the recent run of hot summers has done to our trees, a strong windstorm could cause some serious carnage. 

I think they are one of our most interesting local weather phenomena, possibly the most interesting of all. Even the term "windstorm" is largely unique to this part of the world. 

 

[Phil]

Can see how wet/zonal pattern reverses just before Thanksgiving and into December as driest anomalies are over the high terrain indicating less orographic lifting due to less westerly flow.

Probably colder at the surface vs the current pattern though.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

There are two periods on the weeklies that look interesting to me. Nov 22nd and Dec 9. The amount of ridging in the Gulf of Alaska may at least give some frosty nights. 

Oh yeah I’d assume the more meridional pattern would verify colder at the surface up there even with the higher 500mb heights.

[Deweydog]

MODERATE RAIN

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I think they are one of our most interesting local weather phenomena, possibly the most interesting of all. Even the term "windstorm" is largely unique to this part of the world. 

 

We call them windstorms or nor’easters. About a 50/50 split, since most nor’easters don’t develop quickly enough to deliver precipitation here so it’s just a fückton of wind.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

been calling a winter dud this year since late spring.  gunna stick to it, given latest PV trends.  December may be toast if that's true.  maybe a window of fun around New Years

It’s not impossible that a gargantuan SSW overwhelms the niño base state like 2018/19. But that’s a challenge to pull off.

But I do recall 2018/19 was well on its way to being a “dud” until that huge shakeup in late January.

[ShawniganLake]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

The EPS weeklies are actually pretty ridgy/dry in W-Canada/PNW after this +NPO pattern terminates, though there’s one shot of continental air in the middle of that.

Progression looks exactly like the monthlies to me.

Any way you could speed that animation up a bit.   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

The EPS weeklies are actually pretty ridgy/dry in W-Canada/PNW after this +NPO pattern terminates, though there’s one shot of continental air in the middle of that.

Progression looks exactly like the monthlies to me.

Are you able to see the daily weeklies?  They run a 46 day forecast every day now instead of 2x weekly.  There are also I think 99 individual members now and a lagged super ensemble.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/extended-range-forecasts-be-recast-next-model-upgrade

[Phil]

Also interesting how every SSW since 2016 has favored the west over the east. A lot of folks over on AmWx were getting salty about that after it happened again last Feb/Mar.

There’s a case to be made that the 2018/19 event screwed up what would’ve otherwise been a great niño snowfall pattern out here. That one I remember like it was yesterday because of how insanely opposite it played out vs niño climo.

Unprecedented, even. Because 1968/69 happened in January, which has more precedent in +ENSO. Absolutely bonkers to see that kind of evolution in a +ENSO February.

[Phil]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Are you able to see the daily weeklies?  They run a 46 day forecast every day now instead of 2x weekly.  There are also I think 99 individual members now and a lagged super ensemble.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/extended-range-forecasts-be-recast-next-model-upgrade

Yeah they run everyday on WxBell now. Definitely lessens the anticipation.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not impossible that a gargantuan SSW overwhelms the niño base state like 2018/19. But that’s a challenge to pull off.

But I do recall 2018/19 was well on its way to being a “dud” until that huge shakeup in late January.

18/19 was looking like a top tier turd until the big shake up in late January 

[RentonHill]

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I see blue spaghetti. What does it mean?

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I see blue spaghetti. What does it mean?

Mold usually. Yuck. Maybe blueberries in the spaghetti, which also sounds yucky.

00z NAM in 4 hours 23 minutes

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I see blue spaghetti. What does it mean?

its a temporal loom. we want it to crash

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also interesting how every SSW since 2016 has favored the west over the east. A lot of folks over on AmWx were getting salty about that after it happened again last Feb/Mar.

There’s a case to be made that the 2018/19 event screwed up what would’ve otherwise been a great niño snowfall pattern out here. That one I remember like it was yesterday because of how insanely opposite it played out vs niño climo. Unprecedented, even.

Anything that will screw the east coast weenies out of cold/snow and favors us Pacific Northwesterners instead I am ALL FOR!!!!!! 

[Phil]

This is actually true. Easterlies associated with the +IOD have become so strong they broke the index by advecting cool water into the W-IO.  

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1721557469388747138?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ