November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6.7 inches of rain so far this month.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm no expert, but don't you think the PMM and PDO are related?

Personally, I've always felt the NPI is the best representation of long term phase changes and dominant atmospheric circulations in the North Pacific. Which in turn has a heavy influence on PDO numbers.

They are indeed, but much less so since the super niño in 2016.

I don’t know as much about the NPI so I’ll take your word for it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry no 00z GFS tonight. It has been a crap day. Dealing with a very bad water leak in the Jeep all day been trying to dry up the carpet and padding. Funny, after I get the wind shield new put in too. The leak went all the way under the drivers seat, to the back, and even UNDER the fold out back seat. The Jeep is in the garage now. I will post a re-cap though.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Sorry no 00z GFS tonight. It has been a crap day. Dealing with a very bad water leak in the Jeep all day been trying to dry up the carpet and padding. Funny, after I get the wind shield new put in too. The leak went all the way under the drivers seat, to the back, and even UNDER the fold out back seat. The Jeep is in the garage now. I will post a re-cap though.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

Sorry about that! 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sorry about that! 

Thanks. It is so much worse than I've tried to describe.

6z NAM in 2 hours 2 minutes

[Kolk1604]

16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Sorry no 00z GFS tonight. It has been a crap day. Dealing with a very bad water leak in the Jeep all day been trying to dry up the carpet and padding. Funny, after I get the wind shield new put in too. The leak went all the way under the drivers seat, to the back, and even UNDER the fold out back seat. The Jeep is in the garage now. I will post a re-cap though.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

I feel your pain. My heater core recently starting leaking and it's leaking coolant under the floor on the passanger side. 

The heater core is cheap to replace, but the estimated cost for the shop to do it is around $1000 cause it's a pain in the butt to get to 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice GFS run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel your pain. My heater core recently starting leaking and it's leaking coolant under the floor on the passanger side. 

The heater core is cheap to replace, but the estimated cost for the shop to do it is around $1000 cause it's a pain in the butt to get to 

That sucks. I hope you get it fixed soon. Mine has to be the windshield, or door seal. I'll get it sorted on Monday at the mechanic.

[crf450ish]

14 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel your pain. My heater core recently starting leaking and it's leaking coolant under the floor on the passanger side. 

The heater core is cheap to replace, but the estimated cost for the shop to do it is around $1000 cause it's a pain in the butt to get to 

So the fumes that the coolant gives off are not healthy in the slightest. If its green coolant, it's ethylene glycol, red coolant is propylene glycol. Both of which contain corrosion inhibitors as well as anti bubbling agents that aren't good for health. I'm a firm believer that if you can smell something that is otherwise bad to ingest, you probably shouldn't smell it. 

 

I would imagine you can smell it in your car. 

[Slushy Inch]

 

 

[Kolk1604]

11 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

So the fumes that the coolant gives off are not healthy in the slightest. If its green coolant, it's ethylene glycol, red coolant is propylene glycol. Both of which contain corrosion inhibitors as well as anti bubbling agents that aren't good for health. I'm a firm believer that if you can smell something that is otherwise bad to ingest, you probably shouldn't smell it. 

 

I would imagine you can smell it in your car. 

I think i'm starting to, but my smell isn't that great since I had covid. I'm also not in my truck that much (2003 Ford Ranger) as i'm only 10 minutes away from work. So pretty mucn around town until I can afford to do something lol 

[SouthHillFrosty]

My roof has a good leak right above my circuit breaker in the garage right now. Tried to fix and patch it myself to no avail. Time to call the professionals.

Edited November 7 by SouthHillFrosty

[SouthHillFrosty]

CALL YOUR PARENTS, CALL YOUR KIDS, HERE WE F*CKIN GO!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

 

 

I’ve seen worse!

[snow_wizard]

I want to thank everyone for the kind words last night and today concerning my recent loss of loved ones.  It's been almost two months since my mom passed and I still struggle to believe it at times.  It really hits you hard.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve seen worse!

Ya think?

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My roof has a good leak right above my circuit breaker in the garage right now. Tried to fix and patch it myself to no avail. Time to call the professionals.

Sounds like you need trailer tape lol 

[Front Ranger]

It's not a super strong signal yet, but the ensemble mean is hinting at blocking in the general area you want it around Thanksgiving.

[snow_wizard]

Really interesting.  The last cold snap was in association with a significant WWB west of the Date Line and now we have another WWB coming up that may also be accompanied by a cold shot.  Maybe this will one of those Ninos that yields some decent weather for the NW.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I want to thank everyone for the kind words last night and today concerning my recent loss of loved ones.  It's been almost two months since my mom passed and I still struggle to believe it at times.  It really hits you hard.

So sorry for your loss, Jim. Very glad to see you back and hopefully you can at least find some small measure of relief in posting here and tracking things as winter gets going.

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's not a super strong signal yet, but the ensemble mean is hinting at blocking in the general area you want it around Thanksgiving.

Noticed it earlier today on EPS weeklies as well.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My roof has a good leak right above my circuit breaker in the garage right now. Tried to fix and patch it myself to no avail. Time to call the professionals.

If you know about where the leak is you can tuck some tar paper in under the shingles above, at, and just below where you think the leak is.  I usually use a strip about 12 inches long and 4 inches wide or so.  Works every time.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

So sorry for your loss, Jim. Very glad to see you back and hopefully you can at least find some small measure of relief in posting here and tracking things as winter gets going.

Thank you so much!

BTW...I think your call for a chilly / dry period around New Years has a very good shot at working out.  Pretty common with a Nino.  Something like 1970 or 1995.

[Gradient Keeper]

Been in the garage, but the Euro is looking pretty dang good. Here is Day 7-8. I'll post the usual re-cap later.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank you so much!

BTW...I think your call for a chilly / dry period around New Years has a very good shot at working out.  Pretty common with a Nino.  Something like 1970 or 1995.

2015/16 had a small one too, that wasn't terrible after the active December

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Been in the garage, but the Euro is looking pretty dang good. Here is Day 7-8. I'll post the usual re-cap later.

It's really trying to get somewhere good.

[Front Ranger]

A lot more amplified than a day or two ago.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

2015/16 had a small one too, that wasn't terrible after the active December

So it did!  I forgot about that one.  About a week of pretty chilly weather according to my records.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

A lot more amplified than a day or two ago.

The trends have been really solid on this.  Snow in a Nino November is far from unheard of.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank you so much!

BTW...I think your call for a chilly / dry period around New Years has a very good shot at working out.  Pretty common with a Nino.  Something like 1970 or 1995.

Yep. 2015-16 and 1987-88 are a couple of other examples. Just enough upper level support to keep us locked in the low level cooler for awhile with some snow opportunities. Even a major dud like 1982-83 had the same signature, with the only semi-cold stretch of that winter coming in the same timeframe in that fashion.

I think a significant arctic airmass focused over the PNW is pretty significantly unlikely this winter, unfortunately. But we can still easily salvage a week or two of interesting stuff and I feel like that period is the best bet.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip. Pretty decent run and no sign of any Nino. Ridge is definitely much more amplified.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

Hmm  

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hmm  

Decent signal with the positive anomaly in the sweet spot.

[Cold Snap]

Here is the Euro ensemble mean. It would be nice to see the ridging move a bit west on this.

[Cold Snap]

Got 0.38” of rain today. Up to 2.60” for the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift GFS day 1

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Day 2

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Day 3

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Day 4

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Day 5

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Day 6

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Day 7

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Day 8

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Day 9

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Day 10

[Tyler Mode]

Just hit 5" for the month.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 4.59 inches of rain for November already which is close to 75% of normal for the entire month.    Definitely turning the tide on what had been a very dry calendar year... the deficit for the year is now down to about 3 inches.