November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

On the other hand... the deficit for the year at BLI is an unbelievable 10.60 inches and at HQM its 20.06 inches.

[Meatyorologist]

8 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Sorry no 00z GFS tonight. It has been a crap day. Dealing with a very bad water leak in the Jeep all day been trying to dry up the carpet and padding. Funny, after I get the wind shield new put in too. The leak went all the way under the drivers seat, to the back, and even UNDER the fold out back seat. The Jeep is in the garage now. I will post a re-cap though.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

Had some water leak into my bedroom last week too. Water is one of the worst spills, especially on carpet

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of these model runs are bonkers for Northern California. 

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Normally I would be stoked to see 60" of snow for my house being shown on the models. After last winter though, and it only being Nov, I am getting a sense of dread for this El Nino. Looks like it could be another battle this winter. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Normally I would be stoked to see 60" of snow for my house being shown on the models. After last winter though, and it only being Nov, I am getting a sense of dread for this El Nino. Looks like it could be another battle this winter. 

White Thanksgiving 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Normally I would be stoked to see 60" of snow for my house being shown on the models. After last winter though, and it only being Nov, I am getting a sense of dread for this El Nino. Looks like it could be another battle this winter. 

How long will it take Californians to forget about drought? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.40” overnight. 5.58” on the month, just over halfway to average. 

[ShawniganLake]

EPS looks pretty El Niño like later this month.  With increasing heights over western Canada resulting in mild and dry weather.  And an active and suppressed jet aimed at California.  

[MossMan]

Currently light rain, breezy, and 47 degrees.

.35” so far on the day, 2.62” for the month. 
The maple leaves have really turned over the last few days!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

EPS looks pretty El Niño like later this month.  With increasing heights over western Canada resulting in mild and dry weather.  And an active and suppressed jet aimed at California.  

Hoping we are far enough south this winter to have a winter.

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

EPS looks pretty El Niño like later this month.  With increasing heights over western Canada resulting in mild and dry weather.  And an active and suppressed jet aimed at California.  

Conflicting reports!

Winter is upon us!!!!

[MossMan]

I’m Dreaming Of A White Birthday, Just Like The Ones I Used To Know! (1985 among a few others) 

[iFred]

43 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

EPS looks pretty El Niño like later this month.  With increasing heights over western Canada resulting in mild and dry weather.  And an active and suppressed jet aimed at California.  

Nice, I can spend some time working on my lawn.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nice, I can spend some time working on my lawn.

 

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

0.40” overnight. 5.58” on the month, just over halfway to average. 

It has been wetter to the south so far this month.  Just a little over 3” here.  Average is 9” for November 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It has been wetter to the south so far this month.  Just a little over 3” here.  Average is 9” for November 

2.45" IMBY.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel your pain. My heater core recently starting leaking and it's leaking coolant under the floor on the passanger side. 

The heater core is cheap to replace, but the estimated cost for the shop to do it is around $1000 cause it's a pain in the butt to get to 

Yep and depending on the vehicle sometimes you have to evac the A/C system to get the heater core out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

Hey Thats My gig!! lol

[Skagit Weather]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is at 4.59 inches of rain for November already which is close to 75% of normal for the entire month.    Definitely turning the tide on what had been a very dry calendar year... the deficit for the year is now down to about 3 inches.

That's one of the more impressive precipitation differences I've seen between here and SEA. I'm at 1.62" so far for Nov which is 28% of normal and my deficit on the year is about 9".

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

That's one of the more impressive precipitation differences I've seen between here and SEA. I'm at 1.62" so far for Nov which is 28% of normal and my deficit on the year is about 9".

And I'm close to 7 already for the month.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep and depending on the vehicle sometimes you have to evac the A/C system to get the heater core out.

My first car was easy to do the heater core... And basically anything else. No way I would ever attempt it in my 2020 Sierra lol! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The 00z EPS wasn’t terrible, even in the long range. Not sure how it looks for areas further north though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Another partly sunny morning after pouring rain most of the night. Ended up with a fairly mild 56/50 spread for the day, but at least we managed to stay sub-60.

Picked up another 3/4” rain starting in the late afternoon hours through overnight last night. Well over 4” to the month now, pretty good considering it’s only the 7th. Although things look a bit drier going forward.

Currently partly to mostly sunny and 52 after a low of 48.

[Phil]

Ensemble means are ever so slightly improving with the pattern in Eurasia after D10. Still bad, but not the-worst-I’ve-ever-seen bad. Somewhere between 2015 and 2019 levels of bad.

[Skagit Weather]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And I'm close to 7 already for the month.

Yeah, definitely a healthy amount of precipitation for much of the state. The Skagit River was running higher than I expected when I saw it yesterday. Looks like Olympics and Cascades have large areas that have picked up 10-15"+ in the last week.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ensemble means are ever so slightly improving with the pattern in Eurasia after D10. Still bad, but not the-worst-I’ve-ever-seen bad. Somewhere between 2015 and 2019 levels of bad.

It snowed here both those winters.  Prime time Nino window, late December through mid January 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It snowed here both those winters.  Prime time Nino window, late December through mid January 

We actually had a pretty chilly February/March with some decent snow in 2019-20. 

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We actually had a pretty chilly February/March with some decent snow in 2019-20. 

Though 19/20 kind of lost the +ENSO LP signal as time passed. Where as the current El Niño is likely to peak in January (pretty late) thanks to the new DOKW reinforced by +2SD WWB focused over eastern IPWP.

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

That's one of the more impressive precipitation differences I've seen between here and SEA. I'm at 1.62" so far for Nov which is 28% of normal and my deficit on the year is about 9".

Big-time local differences in precip the past couple months.

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ensemble means are ever so slightly improving with the pattern in Eurasia after D10. Still bad, but not the-worst-I’ve-ever-seen bad. Somewhere between 2015 and 2019 levels of bad.

2015 early 2016 was pretty darn blocky after the December firehose.

[TT-SEA]

New Years Day 2016 was pretty snowy here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

New Years Day 2016 was pretty snowy here.

Nice. We had 8" on the ground Christmas Day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Though 19/20 kind of lost the +ENSO LP signal as time passed. Where as the current El Niño is likely to peak in January (pretty late) thanks to the new DOKW reinforced by +2SD WWB focused over eastern IPWP.

I wouldn't use it as an analog... Just mentioned it because you did.  

In Solidarity.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New Years Day 2016 was pretty snowy here.

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2015 early 2016 was pretty darn blocky after the December firehose.

I mean, kind of? There was the typical El Niño midwinter blocking pattern, but it didn’t persist, and the PV remained strong due to unlucky timing of wave attacks, such that they destructively interfered w/ the W1–> W2 response.

Result was sub-polar blocking that, while prominent, still culminated in one of the warmest winters in US history (warmest on record here until 2022/23).

Only reason we got the blizzard was a favorable El Niño storm track and an airmass that wasn’t on fire. Lucky timing. The rest of that winter sucked ass.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean, kind of? There was the typical El Niño midwinter blocking pattern, but it didn’t persist, and the PV remained strong due to unlucky timing of wave attacks, such that they destructively interfered w/ the W1–> W2 response.

Result was sub-polar blocking that, while prominent, still culminated in one of the warmest winters in US history (warmest on record here until 2022/23).

Only reason we got the blizzard was a favorable El Niño storm track and an airmass that wasn’t on fire. Lucky timing. The rest of that winter sucked a**.

Oh no, it certainly wasn’t a Rembrandt. But given the potential that winter it was kind of a case of something out of nothing. This winter has a similar feel as there’s a pretty decent chance it may turn out to be a real pallet cleanser.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oh no, it certainly wasn’t a Rembrandt. But given the potential that winter it was kind of a case of something out of nothing. This winter has a similar feel as there’s a pretty decent chance it may turn out to be a real pallet cleanser.

If we can snap back with something like 2016-17 I'll be good with it. Historically speaking we usually do alright coming off a big regional dud. I guess our last true regional dud was 14-15, but it was more or less a double dud followed by one of the top two winters of the 21st Century. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

My first car was easy to do the heater core... And basically anything else. No way I would ever attempt it in my 2020 Sierra lol! 

I did a 2018 few months ago, the entire dash comes out and is on the floor to do service, probably over 100 bolts and screws. Ultimate puzzle!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks wet on the EURO.

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we can snap back with something like 2016-17 I'll be good with it. Historically speaking we usually do alright coming off a big regional dud. I guess our last true regional dud was 14-15, but it was more or less a double dud followed by one of the top two winters of the 21st Century. 

Interesting if that is a statistically significant pattern. Down here the “dud” winters tend to come in bunches, or cluster within sub-decadal windows. Can have several “duds” in a row. But the big winters usually follow duds.

Also lol @ 22/23. A feat in failure unlike any other.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Interesting if that is a statistically significant pattern. Down here the “dud” winters tend to come in bunches, or cluster within sub-decadal windows. Can have several “duds” in a row. But the big winters usually follow duds.

Also lol @ 22/23. A feat in failure unlike any other.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Last winter was really really good along the Best Coast.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks Nino-ish.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Last winter was really really good along the Best Coast.

Best coast if you exclude lowland CA. I’d rather live in Miami than LA, and that’s saying something.

Could definitely live in Tahoe or Truckee, though. Possible retirement destination assuming I make it that far.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Big-time local differences in precip the past couple months.

Still way under average up here

[Front Ranger]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting if that is a statistically significant pattern. Down here the “dud” winters tend to come in bunches, or cluster within sub-decadal windows. Can have several “duds” in a row. But the big winters usually follow duds.

Also lol @ 22/23. A feat in failure unlike any other.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Have I mentioned you're gonna have a big winter, Phil?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F with the occasional heavy shower, then back to dry for a bit.

[Tyler Mode]

Colors are moving quickly past peak here but it's still beautiful!  These are from the gorge today.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Have I mentioned you're gonna have a big winter, Phil?

Your confidence exceeds mine. Though, strong niño + warm November has a 100% success rate at predicting snowier than average winters here, so we’ll see.  

If so it’ll likely be 1-2 big snows sandwiched in an ocean of torch. That’s usually how these supercharged niños go.

[Deweydog]

37 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Colors are moving quickly past peak here but it's still beautiful!  These are from the gorge today.

Snappy pix!

[BLI snowman]

Keep forgetting about these earlier model runs. OMG.