November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Keep forgetting about these earlier model runs. OMG.

Some of these model runs are downright depressing. We may struggle to approach average rainfall values this month despite a wet start. Split flow hell.

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your confidence exceeds mine. Though, strong niño + warm November has a 100% success rate at predicting snowier than average winters here, so we’ll see.  

If so it’ll likely be 1-2 big snows sandwiched in an ocean of torch. That’s usually how these supercharged niños go.

I think you will get 2” of slop this entire season! 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

A very wet night, followed by some nice convergence zone action. 1.9" on the day, up to 7.5" on the month. WET.

[LowerGarfield]

I had .22 yesterday but fell asleep before posting. Breezy day in SE WA.

@RentonHill the bird has been grounded so you got your wish to see the turkey football inflatable tackled. Waiting a day or two when the winds die down for him to fly again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

A very wet night, followed by some nice convergence zone action. 1.9" on the day, up to 7.5" on the month. WET.

Congrats, you may be the big weiner today. 

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of these model runs are downright depressing. We may struggle to approach average rainfall values this month despite a wet start. Split flow hell.

Last year was similar for us here just in the respect that it started off with a mouth watering 3" downpour on the 4th and then struggled the rest of the way, winding up drier than average. Of course, it was a very chilly month whereas this one looks destined to torch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Last year was similar for us here just in the respect that it started off with a mouth watering 3" downpour on the 4th and then struggled the rest of the way, winding up drier than average. Of course, it was a very chilly month whereas this one looks destined to torch.

True, things kind of died down after the first week of the month, but when it is chilly and a Nina, one assumes more good stuff is on the way. I don't really consider us in our "window" yet, but once we get to Thanksgiving, Nino climo tells us we have about a 6-8 week window at best. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True, things kind of died down after the first week of the month, but when it is chilly and a Nina, one assumes more good stuff is on the way. I don't really consider us in our "window" yet, but once we get to Thanksgiving, Nino climo tells us we have about a 6-8 week window at best. 

A torchy Oct-Nov combo would make this one a little unique among Ninos. Puts it more firmly in the 1965/1987 camp as far as sensible weather analogs. Both of which similarly turned very chilly in mid December and then stayed there for awhile despite never getting seriously cold.

[Deweydog]

Current life in the 98683.

[snow_wizard]

I'm betting a lot of people don't want to see this, but the flip side is things are going to get pretty chilly for us it appears.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting a lot of people don't want to see this, but the flip side is things are going to get pretty chilly for us it appears.

Dry and cold typically go hand in hand.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A torchy Oct-Nov combo would make this one a little unique among Ninos. Puts it more firmly in the 1965/1987 camp as far as sensible weather analogs. Both of which similarly turned very chilly in mid December and then stayed there for awhile despite never getting seriously cold.

Then of course you have the really weird winter of 1929-30.  Torchy through most of December and then epic cold for weeks.  There are some gigantic outlier Nino winters out there.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dry and cold typically go hand in hand.

I kind of like the setup being hinted at.  Some Canadian flavor to it.  Not just fake cold.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I think you will get 2” of slop this entire season! 

I’m hoping for another one of these  

[crf450ish]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of these model runs are downright depressing. We may struggle to approach average rainfall values this month despite a wet start. Split flow hell.

Good. Hopefully this pattern sticks around through turkey day and then slowly starts to breakdown throughout the first week of December. After that, blocking is welcome to set up shop and give Alaska a nice warm, wet winter. Because we all know what would mean for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A torchy Oct-Nov combo would make this one a little unique among Ninos. Puts it more firmly in the 1965/1987 camp as far as sensible weather analogs. Both of which similarly turned very chilly in mid December and then stayed there for awhile despite never getting seriously cold.

The December 1987 cold snap actually stands out in my mind as being pretty decent.  It was long enough that it froze over some large ponds / very small lakes around here.

Not a lot of people realize we also nearly got a major event in early Feb that winter.  I'll never forget the rug pull on that one.  The NWS was totally fooled.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of these model runs are downright depressing. We may struggle to approach average rainfall values this month despite a wet start. Split flow hell.

I think we might be in a long term dry period.  Most months keep finding ways to be dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Then of course you have the really weird winter of 1929-30.  Torchy through most of December and then epic cold for weeks.  There are some gigantic outlier Nino winters out there.

Hard to imagine a January 1930 happening in todays climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we might be in a long term dry period.  Most months keep finding ways to be dry.

Maybe up there. Last winter was pretty average here, the previous water year was wet due to the insane spring, and 20-21’ was about average too. Here August and September were above average and October was about average. We are well on our way to at least average rainfall this month. It’s not like we have a REX block setting up. We ll be heading into the last week of the month needing a couple inches of rain to hit normal. Not super tough in November. Now 2019 is a year we had a DRY November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm.... 1987-88 wasn't bad up here. -2.1 departure at Silver Falls in December with a bit of snow and 17.30" of precip. January was wet too with temps a bit below average and some snow. They went on a pretty impressive streak of sub-40 highs from December 10th to January 8th. 

I've mentioned before. 1965-66 was pretty good up here. Those might be more aspirational for us this year than pipe dreams like 1972-73. 

Edited November 8 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls ended October with a 1.3F departure. Closed the month with 5 straight freezes including a 25 on the 28th. Record min/max's of 44 on the 25th and 43 on the 26th. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently in Renton at top golf. Some decent rain coming down in this area of showers.

[Skagit Weather]

56 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe up there. Last winter was pretty average here, the previous water year was wet due to the insane spring, and 20-21’ was about average too. Here August and September were above average and October was about average. We are well on our way to at least average rainfall this month. It’s not like we have a REX block setting up. We ll be heading into the last week of the month needing a couple inches of rain to hit normal. Not super tough in November. Now 2019 is a year we had a DRY November. 

Driest 18 month period on record for BLI (just over 30" followed by 1958, 2003, and 1952). That does follow the insanely wet November 2021 up there where they had their wettest month on record.

Nowhere close to top 10 for SEA though. This is the 8th driest 18 months for Diablo Dam (excluding duplicates) in the North Cascades with its close to 100 years of record.

The last year has definitely been below average almost everywhere west of the crest, but the last week is improving the situation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Driest 18 month period on record for BLI (just over 30" followed by 1958, 2003, and 1952). That does follow the insanely wet November 2021 up there where they had their wettest month on record.

Nowhere close to top 10 for SEA though. This is the 8th driest 18 months for Diablo Dam (excluding duplicates) in the North Cascades with its close to 100 years of record.

The last year has definitely been below average almost everywhere west of the crest, but the last week is improving the situation.

Good graphic, makes sense, we did dry out pretty early in the spring, so I can see us being in about the 85% of average range. Still hardly drought territory up here. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm.... 1987-88 wasn't bad up here. -2.1 departure at Silver Falls in December with a bit of snow and 17.30" of precip. January was wet too with temps a bit below average and some snow. They went on a pretty impressive streak of sub-40 highs from December 10th to January 8th. 

I've mentioned before. 1965-66 was pretty good up here. Those might be more aspirational for us this year than pipe dreams like 1972-73. 

1968-69 or bust!!

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The December 1987 cold snap actually stands out in my mind as being pretty decent.  It was long enough that it froze over some large ponds / very small lakes around here.

Not a lot of people realize we also nearly got a major event in early Feb that winter.  I'll never forget the rug pull on that one.  The NWS was totally fooled.

I would definitely take 1987-88 here...

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Current life in the 98683.

Talk about perfectly sequenced colors. Niceee.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I would definitely take 1987-88 here...

Let's be real. 1987-88 is a really solid winter in our current climate state. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's be real. 1987-88 is a really solid winter in our current climate state. 

What about 2018-19, 2021-22, and 2022-23?

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Current life in the 98683.

Purdy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little past peak, but it was beautiful coming up past Silverton Reservoir this evening. I wish there was a spot to pull over and take a picture of the canyon. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm betting a lot of people don't want to see this, but the flip side is things are going to get pretty chilly for us it appears.

Will probably see a lot of that this winter. CA about to pick up where they left off last season.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

What about 2018-19, 2021-22, and 2022-23?

I said solid, and 2 of those 3 are probably top 4 for the 21st Century. But if you look at SLE, 1987-88 was not significantly worse than any of those winters, the December/January period was definitely better than all of them. 87-88 would be in the top half of 21st Century winters. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our winters have evolved in a very strange way over the past 10-15 years. We have done really well in February, and some years into March which salvage winters that have featured dreadful Dec/January combos. I would love to see something big hit in that late December/early January window. The glancing blow late last January was actually pretty decent, though the continental and quick hitting nature of it ensured it would be largely forgotten. 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I said solid, and 2 of those 3 are probably top 4 for the 21st Century. But if you look at SLE, 1987-88 was not significantly worse than any of those winters, the December/January period was definitely better than all of them. 87-88 would be in the top half of 21st Century winters. 

Guess it depends on how much you value snowfall.

Regionally, I'd rank 2003-04, 2006-7, 2008-9, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22, and 2022-23 over 1987-88. Couple others are basically even...

So it's pretty close, I guess, but 87-88 couldn't come close to half of those listed.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Guess it depends on how much you value snowfall.

Regionally, I'd rank 2003-04, 2006-7, 2008-9, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22, and 2022-23 over 1987-88. Couple others are basically even...

So it's pretty close, I guess, but 87-88 couldn't come close to half of those listed.

 

I weight cold and snow about equally all things considered. I'd also mention for SLE specifically 1987-88 had more snow than all but a couple of the ones you listed. Down here I would have a really hard time ranking 2021-22 over 87-88 given the overall mildness of 21-22. 

I'd probably rank 87-88 at about the level of 2017-18. 

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1968-69 or bust!!

There have been enough good Nino winters that you have to always consider it possible to happen again.  1929-30, 1968-69, and 1972-73.  All were great.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I weight cold and snow about equally all things considered. I'd also mention for SLE specifically 1987-88 had more snow than all but a couple of the ones you listed. Down here I would have a really hard time ranking 2021-22 over 87-88 given the overall mildness of 21-22. 

I'd probably rank 87-88 at about the level of 2017-18. 

Your post brings up the interesting fact that Nino winter cold waves are usually snowier in NW OR than they are in the Puget Sound region.  Dec 1987 only had a dusting up here.  Another of many great examples would be the Jan 1998 cold wave.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to imagine a January 1930 happening in todays climate. 

All it takes is a persistent block in the right spot.  I can't think of a reason that it couldn't happen again.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our winters have evolved in a very strange way over the past 10-15 years. We have done really well in February, and some years into March which salvage winters that have featured dreadful Dec/January combos. I would love to see something big hit in that late December/early January window. The glancing blow late last January was actually pretty decent, though the continental and quick hitting nature of it ensured it would be largely forgotten. 

We've had a lot of solid Decembers up here.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There have been enough good Nino winters that you have to always consider it possible to happen again.  1929-30, 1968-69, and 1972-73.  All were great.

You forgot 2018/19!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

You forgot 2018/19!

True.  That Feb was definite top tier.

[SnowWillarrive]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There have been enough good Nino winters that you have to always consider it possible to happen again.  1929-30, 1968-69, and 1972-73.  All were great.

I won’t be truly happy until I experience a winter like 68/69 or 1950. I believe it can happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Your post brings up the interesting fact that Nino winter cold waves are usually snowier in NW OR than they are in the Puget Sound region.  Dec 1987 only had a dusting up here.  Another of many great examples would be the Jan 1998 cold wave.

Salem had about 6" with the December 1987 event. 

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Current life in the 98683.

This is what I think of when it comes to fall. Spectacular! My brother in law and his family used to live near Fisher's Landing and this road looks just like the ones there.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dry and cold typically go hand in hand.

Great for California though!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a lot of solid Decembers up here.

Since 2010 I would say 2013, 2016 were very good down here. 

2021, 2017, and 2022 were decent. 2021 had an incredible week, but was pretty torchy the first 3 weeks of the month. 

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

True.  That Feb was definite top tier.

It sure was! 

[Cold Snap]

One reason that makes me think this will be a dud El Niño is because the last El Niño was very good. Though there has probably been two El Niños in a row in the past that have been pretty good. Not talking about back to back El Niños I’m just talking like the next El Niño after the last one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

One reason that makes me think this will be a dud El Niño is because the last El Niño was very good. Though there has probably been two El Niños in a row in the past that have been pretty good. Not talking about back to back El Niños I’m just talking like the next El Niño after the last one.

The last nino was 2019-20 right? I don't remember that one being all that regionally notable. Maybe this one will be better.