November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phil]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Let me just say that I am also highly entertained despite the GFS managing to push the limits of the laws of physics yet again. 

To be fair, a few weeks ago the GFS scored its first coup in…ever?

Check out the verification scores. That blip where the GFS exceeded the ECMWF is not a common occurrence. But..who knows?

Red=GFS. Blue=ECMWF.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

No southeast ridge. Throw it out. 

Those will be in short supply this winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Ooooh, purple!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

Who specifically has emailed you? I’m curious.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

the 'ol Euro Ensemble Control

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Who specifically has emailed you? I’m curious.

Harry Wappler…From the beyond…

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Control members look good IMBY. Pepto!

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Do you just mean going forward? Because there has definitely been some cold around recently. 

What I’m more or less saying is the upcoming pattern is not great because it will strengthen the PV/+NAM with time and make it increasingly difficult to get arctic air into the middle latitudes. Note the equatorward EP flux developing over the next two weeks.

That **doesn’t** mean transient cold waves aren’t possible in the meantime. There is more to it than just the PV/NAM (especially earlier in the winter) but precedent is not very good for the West in the long run, looking back an analogous patterns.

Of course there is time for this to change as well. But it’s easier for the west to score early in years with niño/+IOD base states. And this year it is a particularly strong base state. So if I lived up there I’d want to see a perturbed NAM/PV, and strong MJO/augmented MC right out of the gate. But, anything is theoretically possible.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Blue Spaghetti chart time

 

Well at least the upward trend has finally stopped. Or at least decelerated.

[iFred]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Harry Wappler…From the beyond…

It was the President of the Rich Marriott fan club, a Mr. Clifford M.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

It was the President of the Rich Marriott fan club, a Mr. Clifford M.

I would have NEVER guessed….

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm glad most of the pro mets in this DMA seem to like snow. Dylan Robichaud especially enjoys winter weather and is very informative about it. John Mayer (not that one) seems to enjoy it as well. Cozart did a great job too and now he's in Portland and loves the winter weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Afternoon GFS fun

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EPS got some dogs in 'em

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The GFS ensemble is better than the morning run. Should be more colder members than it and hopefully some Magic -8 balls for people in the low elevations.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Afternoon GFS fun

6.2… not bad!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much stronger Alaska block signal on this one. Possibly some backdoor/mountain wave potential.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is intriguing. It seems like some members are picking up on some sort of backdoor cold signal.

Avg surface temp dropped 3F from the morning run too. Hopefully that downward trend continues.

[Gradient Keeper]

Might be some Night Shiftin' going on fairly soon.

31.1 low temp

00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is intriguing. It seems like some members are picking up on some sort of backdoor cold signal.

Time to check the ensembles specifically the surface temps for the Columbia Basin to see if either backdoor cold air is moving into eastern Washington, or a signal for cold pool development. One of my favorite things to look for.

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 41 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Now a 5F drop from the previous run at this time. Columbia Basin stations also...

[umadbro]

26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Afternoon GFS fun

Looks like a limp system if you ask me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Looks like a limp system if you ask me.

Ask your physician if Viagra™ is right for you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quite a bit cooler.

[Front Ranger]

Phil - I assume this is good?

[RentonHill]

it aint nothin

[HuskyMaestro]

47F and rainy, such perfect sweater weather with coffee. That favorite time of year again where I can get lost in looking at Hour 300+ maps and get no work done lol

[snow_wizard]

I pulled off a respectably cool 48-31 today.  The min was 6 degrees lower than OLM!

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil - I assume this is good?

More than a little bit surprising all things considered.

[snow_wizard]

Some really remarkable color on the trees right now.  We have a lot of bitter cherry around here and it's on fire.  One of the few native trees that turn red here.  For those who aren't familiar with those trees they turn red, orange, and yellow.  Unusually vivid this year.  There are some stands of cottonwood that are putting on quite a show as well.

[Kolk1604]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This is an insane solution, but at least it isn't just the Goofus that is out to lunch. 

Yeah... too bad the control has these extreme solutions and then takes them away next run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some really remarkable color on the trees right now.  We have a lot of bitter cherry around here and it's on fire.  One of the few native trees that turn red here.  For those who aren't familiar with those trees they turn red, orange, and yellow.  Unusually vivid this year.  There are some stands of cottonwood that are putting on quite a show as well.

I agree. It’s been beautiful this year. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A few small dawgs in there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let's see how the evening runs treat us and then a night shift, Rob?

You gonna play QB for the GFS and EC this evening? I can do the overnight GFS.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. It’s been beautiful this year. 

This just doesn't feel like a Nino year to me.  The observed weather just hasn't fit.  Maybe we'll get lucky...at least early in the season.

[HuskyMaestro]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some really remarkable color on the trees right now.  We have a lot of bitter cherry around here and it's on fire.  One of the few native trees that turn red here.  For those who aren't familiar with those trees they turn red, orange, and yellow.  Unusually vivid this year.  There are some stands of cottonwood that are putting on quite a show as well.

The red maples that line my street looked phenomenal too before the leaves just fell off after the last couple breezy days. Wish I got pictures if anything, last fall was really bad on them and the leaves looked pretty bland. 

[snow_wizard]

I see there has been some discussion of the EPS control and other models hinting at something interesting down the road.  No doubt the EPS control had a really nice look to it with tanked PNA and EPO later in the run.  Some support from EPS ensemble mean as well.

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil - I assume this is good?

All else being equal, yes. Would help augment the Siberian High.

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This just doesn't feel like a Nino year to me.  The observed weather just hasn't fit.  Maybe we'll get lucky...at least early in the season.

It’s a niño year. Ocean/atmosphere coupling is very strong too.

[MossMan]

Just finished another round of blowing before the rain started about 15min ago! Just beat the darkness as well! 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

All else being equal, yes. Would help augment the Siberian High.

It’s a niño year. Ocean/atmosphere coupling is very strong too.

No doubt it is a Nino.  Just doesn't seem like it.

[Tanis Leach]

4 hours ago, iFred said:

@Rubus Leucodermis what are the odds that I get another email from a professional meteorologist expressing their frustrations that I run a community where weather weenies are once again damaging the reputation of trained and studied professionals and that I should limit contributions to only those who are both educated and trained in the atmospheric sciences?

If you want me to send a reply, I can because even though I don't have a meteorology job yet, I do have the degree. 

 

In that reply; I would like to know where these people live, what/where/when their degree is in, where they work; and how long they've been there, and why they feel that way about us discussing the weather. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

45 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah... too bad the control has these extreme solutions and then takes them away next run. 

Given it is a million hours away I am not holding my breath

[TigerWoodsLibido]

25 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just finished another round of blowing before the rain started about 15min ago! Just beat the darkness as well! 

[Slushy Inch]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

All else being equal, yes. Would help augment the Siberian High.

It’s a niño year. Ocean/atmosphere coupling is very strong too.

Nino year with -PDO still

[Gradient Keeper]

57 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Let's see how the evening runs treat us and then a night shift, Rob?

You gonna play QB for the GFS and EC this evening? I can do the overnight GFS.

Sound doable to me.

00z NAM running now
00z GFS in 1 hour 40 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Surface Temps - Moses Lake. Not the coldest we've ever seen for mid-late November, but a definite signal of colder air into the Columbia Basin.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nino year with -PDO still

Yes, but the PDO is only a low frequency echo, and doesn’t affect the sensible weather to any measurable degree. That is also why its amplitude is now waning. 

However the -PMM (if it continues) is more interesting, but its effects may be difficult to project in this climate era. I couldn’t tell you what it means.

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, umadbro said:

Looks like a limp system if you ask me.

Looks more like a vibration.....

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt it is a Nino.  Just doesn't seem like it.

Interesting. Been a textbook niño summer/fall out this way.

[Phil]

The PMM is still negative, which is atypical for an El Niño of this amplitude. Could end up being irrelevant, but this is more interesting to me than the PDO.

Still waiting for the October data, but September was the 2nd most negative on record, in the same camp as 1976, 1998, 2012, and just behind 2008.