November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not bad.

 

Edited November 11 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Slushy Inch]

Getting real windy in Bothell.

[Gradient Keeper]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not bad.

 

Much improved, but does it stand on its heels setting up at ~160-155 W, or ?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Much improved, but does it stand on its heels setting up at ~160-155 W, or ?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Day 8-16

[snow_wizard]

Interesting article about how this Nino hasn't had the typical effects on the mid latitude atmosphere as of yet.  I would love to see this be one of the outlier Ninos that treats us well!

El Niño is now ‘strong’ but acting strangely. What that means. (msn.com)

[snow_wizard]

Major flip on the CFS for December on tonight's run.  This is the first good run in a while, and it's both the control and ensemble mean.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major flip on the CFS for December on tonight's run.  This is the first good run in a while, and it's both the control and ensemble mean.

It's coming. We just have to be patient as we wade through the wishy-washy, flippy-floppy operational runs. Just wait until 00z runs Thursday. The El Nada continues.

6z GFS in 1 hour 6 minutes

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting article about how this Nino hasn't had the typical effects on the mid latitude atmosphere as of yet.  I would love to see this be one of the outlier Ninos that treats us well!

El Niño is now ‘strong’ but acting strangely. What that means. (msn.com)

That article is nonsense. There’s been plenty of rising air over the EPAC (RMMs are amplified in p8/1 as we speak), and the IPWP is relatively cold (not warm) w/ respect to global tropical mean SSTA.

If anything, this niño is coupled more strongly than would otherwise be expected given ONI/MEI.

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Major flip on the CFS for December on tonight's run.  This is the first good run in a while, and it's both the control and ensemble mean.

Dec. 1919 repeat?

 

Plz?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Moses Lake - 850s, Surface Temps. Still a nice chunk of cold members and temps cool significantly for the Columbia Basin. Not bad.

[GoldenEars]

Lots of outages in BC right now. I have gusts around 30mph and flickering lights.

[Gradient Keeper]

Radar Update

11/11/23 2:08 am

Now that's an impressive looking squall with the frontal boundary!

[Gradient Keeper]

Over 32,000 without power in Washington now.

[Gradient Keeper]

32 minutes ago, GoldenEars said:

Lots of outages in BC right now. I have gusts around 30mph and flickering lights.

Over 130,000 is a big number.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F calm and partly cloudy. Nice night.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

3:11 AM

[SpaceRace22]

Checking back in to this place since I'll be visiting PDX for Thanksgiving and then moving there full time in December, lol.

Don't know why anyone is looking at the operational runs this far out, but the Euro Ensembles are starting to look pretty tasty. Has Portland ever even had a white Thanksgiving before?

 

Also as a bonus, how bout those Extended Ensembles, eh? Anyone know if this is maybe a terrain bleed issue, or could this actually be for real? I see it says the grid average for PDX on this is 319ft... but some of these members are pretty wacky for anywhere below 500' up there, no?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Checking back in to this place since I'll be visiting PDX for Thanksgiving and then moving there full time in December, lol.

Don't know why anyone is looking at the operational runs this far out, but the Euro Ensembles are starting to look pretty tasty. Has Portland ever even had a white Thanksgiving before?

 

Also as a bonus, how bout those Extended Ensembles, eh? Anyone know if this is maybe a terrain bleed issue, or could this actually be for real? I see it says the grid average for PDX on this is 319ft... but some of these members are pretty wacky for anywhere below 500' up there, no?

I would say terrain bleed for sure. I would also be okay with that much snow. lol

[crf450ish]

Either I haven't payed attention or this is one of the more vigorous wind events in recent years. The squall line is incredible. Wish I was at the ocean right now. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm going to post this really quick. I have a mandatory OT work today. Looks like the PNW will see some good wind today. 

[Ellsworb]

Made it back in from the morning walk with the dogs just in time.  Plenty of wind still out there and radar indicates we are about to be pummeled on the east shore of Lake Tapps.

[The Winter Warlock]

Hold onto your butts.

[Meatyorologist]

The captain my plane home just informed us we'll be going into Canada for a brief moment to avoid the turbulence over the NW.

[Ray]

Lost power at about 1:30am.  Drug the generator out after sitting for months.  Started first pull.  Have to love Honda reliability.  I don't know exactly what time the power came back.  When I woke up at 4:30am I could see the street light down the road back on.  I think this is going to be a fun and active fall/winter season.

[Ray]

I no sooner finished typing and the rain and wind hit.  Very strong burst.  Exciting way to start the day. 

[MossMan]

What a wild night! Somehow the power stayed on (I’m so proud of you my little weak power grid) but it rocked and rolled all night. Then the super heavy rain came around 4am along with the wind pounding the house. I always do a fence line check after a storm…Glad I did this morning, otherwise the dogs would have enjoyed a free run on the neighbors 40 acres. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

The captain my plane home just informed us we'll be going into Canada for a brief moment to avoid the turbulence over the NW.

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What a wild night! Somehow the power stayed on (I’m so proud of you my little weak power grid) but it rocked and rolled all night. Then the super heavy rain came around 4am along with the wind pounding the house. I always do a fence line check after a storm…Glad I did this morning, otherwise the dogs would have enjoyed a free run on the neighbors 40 acres. 

Did that come from Phil?  

[Skagit Weather]

Wind peaked at 37 mph here which is pretty typical fare for November. Looks like the 10m stations in my area were also around that speed, with one that's a bit more exposed getting up to 44 mph. Still kind of unimpressed by the lack of rain up here. Just passed 2" on the month with the 0.3" I picked up this morning. Last night's Euro run suggested 3" in the next ten days, but this fall it seems to be consistently overdoing precipitation by almost 2x so I have little faith in that.

The Mount Baker Ski Area picked up 2.73" of water equivalent in the last day with temperatures near or below freezing. Freezing level popped up just above the 4,200' measuring station this morning, but 5,000' may have gotten 30"+ of snow.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Did that come from Phil?  

No Phil held strong…Unfortunately. 

[Blizzard777]

Leaves be blowing in PDX!! 

 

[MossMan]

Still dumping and 45 degrees.

.73” so far on the day, 3.49” for the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet morning. Sorry about your tree damage Randy. 

[Blizzard777]

Upon returning from the SW I hightailed it over to the islands for one last taste of summer! It felt so good.  
Fun to return to this storm blessing us with lots of of action.  I do have to say that the NW nails it with the right feel for fall.  Mexico , SW and Hawaii are beautiful in their way but the NW does it right!!! I’m not sure but I do believe I’m home for a bit …lol. We shall see. Ok, almost home.  
seriously , Christmas  music  on the radio already
 

[Blizzard777]

My view this morning !   

[the_convergence_zone]

Decent storm, blustery but not enough to cause damage. 4.12” on the month now, 7.09” since Oct 1.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Well, that was a wild night. 150,000 in BC lost power (I was not one of them). That figure has by now dropped to 130,000.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wet morning. Sorry about your tree damage Randy. 

All fixed…Well functional again anyway. Had to twist and yank the gate back to somewhat straight so it would close again and not leave a gap. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Don’t look at the 12Z

First significant rain for me this fall. 0.7” and counting 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Lots of power outages up here, we didn't lose power at my house but did lose internet for several hours due to a power outage somewhere along the line with the Comcast service infrastructure.

 

Peak wind gust at BLI airport was 64mph, and peaked at my house around 30mph, which is impressive given how sheltered my station is.  I think the highest I have recorded is 40mph in the 10 years I have lived here.

[Slushy Inch]

Solid! 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

What a wild night! Somehow the power stayed on (I’m so proud of you my little weak power grid) but it rocked and rolled all night. Then the super heavy rain came around 4am along with the wind pounding the house. I always do a fence line check after a storm…Glad I did this morning, otherwise the dogs would have enjoyed a free run on the neighbors 40 acres. 

Did Phil get a buzzcut??

Edit: nevermind, apparently not yet. Still only a matter of time.  

[ShawniganLake]

6 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Checking back in to this place since I'll be visiting PDX for Thanksgiving and then moving there full time in December, lol.

Don't know why anyone is looking at the operational runs this far out, but the Euro Ensembles are starting to look pretty tasty. Has Portland ever even had a white Thanksgiving before?

 

Also as a bonus, how bout those Extended Ensembles, eh? Anyone know if this is maybe a terrain bleed issue, or could this actually be for real? I see it says the grid average for PDX on this is 319ft... but some of these members are pretty wacky for anywhere below 500' up there, no?

Snowfall on the extended ensemble should be taken about as seriously as the day 16 gfs operational

[GHweatherChris]

Holy hail squall just rolled through here, that was intense!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 6.32” on the month. This weekend ended up a lot wetter than the models were suggesting a couple days ago. Down here at least. 

[RentonHill]

I don’t ask god for much. But for the love of all that is holy I need a miracle from you now. 

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I don’t ask god for much. But for the love of all that is holy I need a miracle from you now. 

I get back late at night on Thanksgiving. Hope the typical pushback delays anything we get.

[ShawniganLake]

1.35” of rain here last night.  It was windy but nothing extreme.  Power stayed on which probably means a lot of the weak trees have already been thinned out this fall