November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well that was fun!! Driving up to Burlington for the kids school function and we saw lots of lightning and what appeared to be a funnel cloud beginning to form but then began to sheer? I know nothing about those sorts of things. Then we got hit by big time hail that sounded like it was going to break my wife’s windshield. My wife and kids were not pleased but I was having fun! 

Funnel cloud in No. 2!

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

Welcome to the Weather Forums

[Cascadia_Wx]

Thursday ended up cool and mostly cloudy with rain late. 52/34 spread. As has been common lately, the bulk of the rain with the Thursday system came overnight. Yesterday was mostly cloudy and dry most of the daylight and evening hours, with a 54/47 spread.

Had some gusty south winds overnight last night and some decent rainfall this morning, and a few heavier afternoon showers. Mostly cloudy otherwise with a 53/49 spread so far today.

[Andie]

Take a minute, go outside, & look up.  

The aurora forecast from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center shows the southern extent of the Northern Lights stretching from northern Oregon to central Iowa to the southern tier of New York.

[HuskyMaestro]

37 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

Welcome to the most bipolar weather-themed rollercoaster you'll experience for the fall and winter! 

[the_convergence_zone]

26 minutes ago, Andie said:

Take a minute, go outside, & look up.  

The aurora forecast from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center shows the southern extent of the Northern Lights stretching from northern Oregon to central Iowa to the southern tier of New York.

??? The K-index is currently 1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Lol, I love the emotion shifts run to run

New here?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

??? The K-index is currently 1

It's 100% cloudy here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thursday ended up cool and mostly cloudy with rain late. 52/34 spread. As has been common lately, the bulk of the rain with the Thursday system came overnight. Yesterday was mostly cloudy and dry most of the daylight and evening hours, with a 54/47 spread.

Had some gusty south winds overnight last night and some decent rainfall this morning, and a few heavier afternoon showers. Mostly cloudy otherwise with a 53/49 spread so far today.

Nice ensemble improvement today. I have some hope we see a few days of dry coolish weather later in the month. We deserve it.

[RentonHill]

26 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

??? The K-index is currently 1

[Phishy Wx]

the only Northern Lights around tonight is in my bowl

[Gradient Keeper]

Rainfall totals

Daily total: 0.35" Month: 5.31" Year: 33.44"

How wet has it been at your location?

00z GFS in 26 minutes

[Andie]

48 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

??? The K-index is currently 1

11/11

[Cascadia_Wx]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice ensemble improvement today. I have some hope we see a few days of dry coolish weather later in the month. We deserve it.

Seems like late month is a good window for at least a chilly snap. Could do a little bit to offset the absolute blowtorch the first week of the month.

[Gradient Keeper]

Based on the obvious ensembles improvement we might see the operational runs tonight show some promise. I do think it is probably a bit too early though and I'd look more towards Thursday 00z.

The El Nada continues....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 hour ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

Welcome to your nightmare...lol. Just kidding. You'll find when you see a good solution on the model runs then they pull it right under your feet then brings it back. Yup, it's a roller-coaster of a ride sometimes. 

One piece of advice to you, it's nice looking out into LA LA land but when it comes to actually believing it will happen, it needs to be within 5 to 7 days out (and then that maybe to far out). 

Just have fun looking at the maps and always post something you see because some of us may not see it as you do 🌧

[Phil]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Well that was fun!! Driving up to Burlington for the kids school function and we saw lots of lightning and what appeared to be a funnel cloud beginning to form but then began to sheer? I know nothing about those sorts of things. Then we got hit by big time hail that sounded like it was going to break my wife’s windshield. My wife and kids were not pleased but I was having fun! 

Nice! Looks like a midsummer storm.  

That funnel-looking thing is scud inflow ahead of the rain shaft/downdraft.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(4-run trend)

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

Welcome!

[Skagit Weather]

43 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Rainfall totals

Daily total: 0.35" Month: 5.31" Year: 33.44"

How wet has it been at your location?

00z GFS in 26 minutes

0.47" on the day and 2.17" on the month! That's 38% of my average 5.75" for November and we're 37% of the way through the month so I'm right on target...Although for some reason I feel like it's going to be hard to keep up this pace based on the amount of precipitation other places have been getting.

Maybe eventually we'll get some more northerly focused systems or ones that don't lean into the rain shadow so hard.

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Well that was fun!! Driving up to Burlington for the kids school function and we saw lots of lightning and what appeared to be a funnel cloud beginning to form but then began to sheer? I know nothing about those sorts of things. Then we got hit by big time hail that sounded like it was going to break my wife’s windshield. My wife and kids were not pleased but I was having fun! 

I was out on a run when that thunderstorm rolled through. Had a couple bolts strike near me and got thoroughly soaked by the hail/rain. Ended up cutting my run short as the trail turned into a lake/river. Very cool to see and one of the few thunderstorms I've witnessed in the last couple years here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(4-run trend)

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3

(4-run trend)

must be an unstable boundary condition initialized somewhere. hence the windshield wiper effect on the W-Canada shortwave trough.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(4-run trend)

[Skagit Weather]

41 minutes ago, Andie said:

11/11

That is the best case scenario if the Kp actually hits 6 and the other conditions align. They recently changed how they display their forecast showing only the most extreme southern extent of the Aurora based on historical Kp indices. Even if we actually were in a Kp 6, the likelihood of seeing it throughout that whole range is not 100% (probably closer to 30-50%). But it could happen if we're lucky.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(4-run trend)

[SpaceRace22]

11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Snowfall on the extended ensemble should be taken about as seriously as the day 16 gfs operational

Hence why I said it was a "bonus" image.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, well that's already a big improvement.

[Phishy Wx]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice! Looks like a midsummer storm.  

That funnel-looking thing is scud inflow ahead of the rain shaft/downdraft.

looks like a Cold Air Funnel to me

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Patience…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, that's beautiful

[Gradient Keeper]

Waiting for good things with GEFS tonight.

[Christensen87]

Yeah, what a beautiful storm on the 21st. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6-10. Canadian is going somewhere with the strengthening ridge over western Alaska and cold trough over BC. Yep!

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the GFS. Day 10

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like a Cold Air Funnel to me

Right next to the downdraft and outflow? I’m not seeing it there, though I suppose we can’t know for sure without a video of the cloud motion.

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 6-10. Canadian is going somewhere with the strengthening ridge over western Alaska and cold trough over BC. Yep!

Looking down our checklist…next step is @TT-SEA the EPS whisperer to tell us if we can proceed or if it’s back to the pile 

[Cold Snap]

32 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er, that's beautiful

Probably that same storm that the Euro control was showing around that time.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Probably that same storm that the Euro control was showing around that time.

Indeed it is.

[RentonHill]

End of the GFS moves the whole PV into central Canada 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS long range is fun. Should we talk about the ice storm for the Gorge on Thanksgiving(and after)? 925s shows definite low level cold to support this.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8.5 (4-run trend)