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November 2023 Weather in the PNW

Tyler Mode

By Tyler Mode
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by MossMan,

Anything that will screw the east coast weenies out of cold/snow and favors us Pacific Northwesterners instead I am ALL FOR!!!!!! 
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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Waking up to the operational 06z I thought things had fallen apart. Instead ensembles across the board are closing in on something interesting, very nice to see. Starting to get a little excited again. Glad we're getting at least one go-around this winter, with model riding before the 15th of Nov! That 20th storm looks interesting too, though the details are fickle and it may very well disappear on the next run.

My personal gut instinct tells me models are overdoing both blocking and cold air, but the potential is there for real Arctic air and snow. I think it was Andrew who brought up the 1896 redux? I think that's around what our potential is.

If we can score a BLAST, then I am fine with split flow hell the rest of the way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard
snow_wizard

Probably time for me to go into why I was away for so long earlier this year. A big part of it was major health problems and the deaths of close family members including my mom and father in law.

TigerWoodsLibido
TigerWoodsLibido

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride o

snow_wizard
snow_wizard

For some reason our run of misfortune just continues unabated.  About an hour ago our son had his first seizure in years, and last week our dentist, who we have been going to for years just up and die

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really wet first half of November but might quiet down for the second half.    Both the 00Z EPS and 06Z GFS were quite dry for the next couple weeks.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1043200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-1151200.png

Yeah we average around 6” of rain for November, we will probably get there or just a little above that. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.33”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 14.22”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Waking up to the operational 06z I thought things had fallen apart. Instead ensembles across the board are closing in on something interesting, very nice to see. Starting to get a little excited again. Glad we're getting at least one go-around this winter, with model riding before the 15th of Nov! That 20th storm looks interesting too, though the details are fickle and it may very well disappear on the next run.

My personal gut instinct tells me models are overdoing both blocking and cold air, but the potential is there for real Arctic air and snow. I think it was Andrew who brought up the 1896 redux? I think that's around what our potential is.

Yeah I don't think the Op runs are going to zero in on the dramatic changes the Ensembles are trending towards until Wednesday or Thursday 00z. That's when the fun begins. Whether that's just a chilly air mass dry and cold, or a legit early season blast is unknown.

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 35 minutes

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
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Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

gfs-sunriver-us-44n-1215 (1).png

Welcome to the forum! An Arctic Blast is coming, just a matter of time now. Sunriver is so beautiful.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

You’re alive!!! Everyone missing has finally come back home to the forum!! 
Welcome back, this winter is going to be awesome now! 2006/07 incoming! 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Welcome back!!   Are you back in Montana?

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking😂

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kayla said:

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking😂

When someone completely disappears with no warning we get worried!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Kayla said:

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking😂

We were worried and were about to send out a search party until Tim did some investigating. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
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My last flight(s) in the "ditch" before heading back up to the Great White North!

Screenshot 2023-11-12 at 9.25.17 AM.pngScreenshot 2023-11-12 at 9.26.37 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When someone completely disappears with no warning we get worried!  

It's nice to take a break from everything weather at times!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Heyyyyyyyyy! There she is! Now we can see those super Christmassy snowy scenes again this Winter!

You know it! Decorating today before the snow arrives!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really wet first half of November but might quiet down for the second half.    Both the 00Z EPS and 06Z GFS were quite dry for the next couple weeks.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-1043200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-1151200.png

I don't know if "really wet" will be particularly accurate. Definitely really wet for the first week, but the first half of the month will end up being pretty close to average in most places. SEA will end up around (or slightly above) 5" of precip for the first half which will put it in the top 10 of years, and that's about the most extreme example. OLM will barely be in the top 20 of wettest first halves of November also with just over 5" and BLI will be somewhere in the top 15 with about 3.5". Many of the other stations will end up less abnormal than that and quite a few of the mountain stations will end up drier than average.

With little rain in this next couple of days, this map will continue to get less abnormal and even now it only shows slightly above average conditions throughout much of the Puget Sound and Cascades area of Western WA. And considering how dry it has been for the past year, two weeks of slightly above average precipitation is not that impressive (obviously it's been more above normal the further south you go towards PDX).

2023_11_12_14dPNormDEWS_PACNW.thumb.png.8db2d16e31d0859391610f6787446651.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 0"

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Crappy 12z runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
Just now, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know if "really wet" will be particularly accurate. Definitely really wet for the first week, but the first half of the month will end up being pretty close to average in most places. SEA will end up around (or slightly above) 5" of precip for the first half which will put it in the top 10 of years, and that's about the most extreme example. OLM will barely be in the top 20 of wettest first halves of November also with just over 5" and BLI will be somewhere in the top 15 with about 3.5". Many of the other stations will end up less abnormal than that and quite a few of the mountain stations will end up drier than average.

With little rain in this next couple of days, this map will continue to get less abnormal and even now it only shows slightly above average conditions throughout much of the Puget Sound and Cascades area of Western WA. And considering how dry it has been for the past year, two weeks of slightly above average precipitation is not that impressive (obviously it's been more above normal the further south you go towards PDX).

2023_11_12_14dPNormDEWS_PACNW.thumb.png.8db2d16e31d0859391610f6787446651.png

Yeah... I was thinking about SEA which is running over 200% of normal for the month so far and western OR which has been pretty wet.    Definitely different in the rain shadowed areas to the north.    November probably won't end up being really wet anywhere.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GFS Day 9'er, not there yet as expected. GEFS running....

image.png

tommy-boy-chris-farley.gif

The trend does seem to be that the first shot slides east but the NPAC high repositions into the sweet spot by day 10-11. Then the arctic air hammer drops Thanksgiving weekend.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Get out your extrapolating tools!!

Screenshot 2023-11-12 at 9.40.44 AM.png

 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The first 10 days of November were significantly wetter here last year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I might have seen you in mid April on Bright Angel rescuing a hiker at 3 mile resthouse! 

PXL_20230414_233718186.jpg

 

PXL_20230414_233555156.jpg

Wasn't me! I was based in Vegas so we operated solely in the West Rim area of the canyon.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

The forum's most envied poster is back! Can't wait for -20F blizzard vids

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.00"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 17

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The forum's most envied poster is back! Can't wait for -20F blizzard vids

I just missed the typical October blast of snow/cold here and even though this winter looks like a dud overall I'm sure they'll still be a few more fun surprises! Nice to be back!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Kayla’s back! 🍾

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

KNIGHTS WIN THE CUP!!!

And Jesse officially declared the forum unreadable☹️

Meh, tell me something I don't know!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Feet pics became popular again a few weeks ago. 🫢

Oh, now that's fun!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Eh, tell me something I don't know!

Our foundation is in and framing starts this week! Hopefully we’ll get to test the lumber’s cold weather tolerance in the next 8-14 days!

It’s not coming.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our foundation is in and framing starts this week! Hopefully we’ll get to test the lumber’s cold weather tolerance in the next 8-14 days!

It’s not coming.

That's exciting! Where did you end up buying land?

  • Popcorn 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Hey stranger!  Welcome back!!!!!!!

Thank you, great to be back!!

  • bongocat-test 2

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Kayla said:

That's exciting! Where did you end up buying land?

As the crow flies we’re only about three miles from our old residence.😂

The whole thing is pretty sordid and kind of the result of what’s been a pretty weird and crappy year. It’s been a 2023 thing on the forum.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I just missed the typical October blast of snow/cold here and even though this winter looks like a dud overall I'm sure they'll still be a few more fun surprises! Nice to be back!

Even the dud years are insane up there in Bozeman.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.00"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 17

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As the crow flies we’re only about three miles from our old residence.😂

The whole thing is pretty sordid and kind of the result of what’s been a pretty weird and crappy year. It’s been a 2023 thing on the forum.

Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed!

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 8"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 7"

Coldest daily high: 15ºF

Coldest daily low: 0ºF

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Operational GFS and CMC to some extent look nothing like their ensemble means. Alaska blocking much stronger on GEFS/GEPS.

Let’s see what Dr. Euro has to say.

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