November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Waking up to the operational 06z I thought things had fallen apart. Instead ensembles across the board are closing in on something interesting, very nice to see. Starting to get a little excited again. Glad we're getting at least one go-around this winter, with model riding before the 15th of Nov! That 20th storm looks interesting too, though the details are fickle and it may very well disappear on the next run.

My personal gut instinct tells me models are overdoing both blocking and cold air, but the potential is there for real Arctic air and snow. I think it was Andrew who brought up the 1896 redux? I think that's around what our potential is.

If we can score a BLAST, then I am fine with split flow hell the rest of the way. 

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really wet first half of November but might quiet down for the second half.    Both the 00Z EPS and 06Z GFS were quite dry for the next couple weeks.

Yeah we average around 6” of rain for November, we will probably get there or just a little above that. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice sub-freezing Gorge on the 6z GEFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Waking up to the operational 06z I thought things had fallen apart. Instead ensembles across the board are closing in on something interesting, very nice to see. Starting to get a little excited again. Glad we're getting at least one go-around this winter, with model riding before the 15th of Nov! That 20th storm looks interesting too, though the details are fickle and it may very well disappear on the next run.

My personal gut instinct tells me models are overdoing both blocking and cold air, but the potential is there for real Arctic air and snow. I think it was Andrew who brought up the 1896 redux? I think that's around what our potential is.

Yeah I don't think the Op runs are going to zero in on the dramatic changes the Ensembles are trending towards until Wednesday or Thursday 00z. That's when the fun begins. Whether that's just a chilly air mass dry and cold, or a legit early season blast is unknown.

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 35 minutes

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Nice sub-freezing Gorge on the 6z GEFS.

Probably a sign of a ridge and the associated Columbia Basin temperature inversion.

[Snownerd3000]

You guys are my spirit animals 

[Kayla]

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Tim and Jim got gay married this past summer. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Hey, first post here but I've been lurking for years. Loving the ensembles today, can't wait to finalllyyy get some good winter weather here, we'll see though. Perhaps this time the cold ensembles will actually be right, feels like that never happens. 

 

Welcome to the forum! An Arctic Blast is coming, just a matter of time now. Sunriver is so beautiful.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Welcome back!!   Are you back in Montana?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

You’re alive!!! Everyone missing has finally come back home to the forum!! 
Welcome back, this winter is going to be awesome now! 2006/07 incoming! 

Edited November 12 by MossMan

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Welcome back, we all missed you!  

You missed our late October Arctic Blast!

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Welcome back!!   Are you back in Montana?

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kayla said:

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking

When someone completely disappears with no warning we get worried!  

[MossMan]

Just now, Kayla said:

Thanks! And I am!  Nice little break in the Canyon but back in Helicopter EMS. I saw that you did some cyber stalking

We were worried and were about to send out a search party until Tim did some investigating. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

11 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS long range is fun. Should we talk about the ice storm for the Gorge on Thanksgiving(and after)? 925s shows definite low level cold to support this.

Rod Hill was on to something after all when he said freezing rain chances were elevated this winter!

[Kayla]

My last flight(s) in the "ditch" before heading back up to the Great White North!

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Heyyyyyyyyy! There she is! Now we can see those super Christmassy snowy scenes again this Winter!

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When someone completely disappears with no warning we get worried!  

It's nice to take a break from everything weather at times!

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Heyyyyyyyyy! There she is! Now we can see those super Christmassy snowy scenes again this Winter!

You know it! Decorating today before the snow arrives!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 9'er, not there yet as expected. GEFS running....

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

You know it! Decorating today before the snow arrives!

I wanna help!

[Skagit Weather]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really wet first half of November but might quiet down for the second half.    Both the 00Z EPS and 06Z GFS were quite dry for the next couple weeks.

I don't know if "really wet" will be particularly accurate. Definitely really wet for the first week, but the first half of the month will end up being pretty close to average in most places. SEA will end up around (or slightly above) 5" of precip for the first half which will put it in the top 10 of years, and that's about the most extreme example. OLM will barely be in the top 20 of wettest first halves of November also with just over 5" and BLI will be somewhere in the top 15 with about 3.5". Many of the other stations will end up less abnormal than that and quite a few of the mountain stations will end up drier than average.

With little rain in this next couple of days, this map will continue to get less abnormal and even now it only shows slightly above average conditions throughout much of the Puget Sound and Cascades area of Western WA. And considering how dry it has been for the past year, two weeks of slightly above average precipitation is not that impressive (obviously it's been more above normal the further south you go towards PDX).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crappy 12z runs. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

I don't know if "really wet" will be particularly accurate. Definitely really wet for the first week, but the first half of the month will end up being pretty close to average in most places. SEA will end up around (or slightly above) 5" of precip for the first half which will put it in the top 10 of years, and that's about the most extreme example. OLM will barely be in the top 20 of wettest first halves of November also with just over 5" and BLI will be somewhere in the top 15 with about 3.5". Many of the other stations will end up less abnormal than that and quite a few of the mountain stations will end up drier than average.

With little rain in this next couple of days, this map will continue to get less abnormal and even now it only shows slightly above average conditions throughout much of the Puget Sound and Cascades area of Western WA. And considering how dry it has been for the past year, two weeks of slightly above average precipitation is not that impressive (obviously it's been more above normal the further south you go towards PDX).

Yeah... I was thinking about SEA which is running over 200% of normal for the month so far and western OR which has been pretty wet.    Definitely different in the rain shadowed areas to the north.    November probably won't end up being really wet anywhere.  

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GFS Day 9'er, not there yet as expected. GEFS running....

The trend does seem to be that the first shot slides east but the NPAC high repositions into the sweet spot by day 10-11. Then the arctic air hammer drops Thanksgiving weekend.

[Kayla]

Get out your extrapolating tools!!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first 10 days of November were significantly wetter here last year. 

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Kayla said:

My last flight(s) in the "ditch" before heading back up to the Great White North!

I might have seen you in mid April on Bright Angel rescuing a hiker at 3 mile resthouse! 

 

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I might have seen you in mid April on Bright Angel rescuing a hiker at 3 mile resthouse! 

 

Wasn't me! I was based in Vegas so we operated solely in the West Rim area of the canyon.

[Meatyorologist]

33 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

The forum's most envied poster is back! Can't wait for -20F blizzard vids

[Randyc321]

7 hours ago, The Winter Warlock said:

 

Happy birthday!

Todays also my B-day.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The forum's most envied poster is back! Can't wait for -20F blizzard vids

I just missed the typical October blast of snow/cold here and even though this winter looks like a dud overall I'm sure they'll still be a few more fun surprises! Nice to be back!

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

KNIGHTS WIN THE CUP!!!

And Jesse officially declared the forum unreadable

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Happy birthday!

Todays also my B-day.

Happy Birthday!

[Cascadia_Wx]

42 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Welcome back!

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Wasn't me! I was based in Vegas so we operated solely in the West Rim area of the canyon.

Oh nice. Amazing region!

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Kayla’s back!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 7 (4-run trend)

[Kayla]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

KNIGHTS WIN THE CUP!!!

And Jesse officially declared the forum unreadable

Meh, tell me something I don't know!

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Eh, tell me something I don't know!

Feet pics became popular again a few weeks ago.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Feet pics became popular again a few weeks ago.

Oh, now that's fun!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Eh, tell me something I don't know!

Our foundation is in and framing starts this week! Hopefully we’ll get to test the lumber’s cold weather tolerance in the next 8-14 days!

It’s not coming.

[Chewbacca Defense]

52 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hey soooo....what'd I miss?!?

Hey stranger!  Welcome back!!!!!!!

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Our foundation is in and framing starts this week! Hopefully we’ll get to test the lumber’s cold weather tolerance in the next 8-14 days!

It’s not coming.

That's exciting! Where did you end up buying land?

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Hey stranger!  Welcome back!!!!!!!

Thank you, great to be back!!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

That's exciting! Where did you end up buying land?

As the crow flies we’re only about three miles from our old residence.

The whole thing is pretty sordid and kind of the result of what’s been a pretty weird and crappy year. It’s been a 2023 thing on the forum.

[Meatyorologist]

27 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I just missed the typical October blast of snow/cold here and even though this winter looks like a dud overall I'm sure they'll still be a few more fun surprises! Nice to be back!

Even the dud years are insane up there in Bozeman.

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As the crow flies we’re only about three miles from our old residence.

The whole thing is pretty sordid and kind of the result of what’s been a pretty weird and crappy year. It’s been a 2023 thing on the forum.

Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed!

[Phil]

Operational GFS and CMC to some extent look nothing like their ensemble means. Alaska blocking much stronger on GEFS/GEPS.

Let’s see what Dr. Euro has to say.