November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

Models continue to look varied. No rudderless, stangnant weather patterns this Fall. I don't think we've seen a single weather regime last longer than a week since August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Operational GFS and CMC to some extent look nothing like their ensemble means. Alaska blocking much stronger on GEFS/GEPS.

Let’s see what Dr. Euro has to say.

Great point Phil. 

[Kayla]

It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed!

Thanks! We’re having fun with it. It’s not what we had planned even six months ago but the place will be pretty sweet. Backs up to a recently-closed golf course that’s been converted to a nature preserve. When it snows again in a couple years I should get some sweet snaps.

[Kayla]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Thanks! We’re having fun with it. It’s not what we had planned even six months ago but the place will be pretty sweet. Backs up to a recently-closed golf course that’s been converted to a nature preserve. When it snows again in a couple years I should get some sweet snaps.

Oh that is really cool! And yeah, I'm sure you won't see any outflow until 2025 but something to look forward to!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls!

Can't wait. 

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It doesn't get much better than this for an ensemble mean 10 days out boys and girls!

Need that drooling homer simpson gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lock it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well hello...

[Cascadia_Wx]

37 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Sorry to hear that. Building a home can be very exciting times so hopefully you guys can find some joy in it while not being too overwhelmed!

Looking at how the population at large is doing and housing costs right now, you could be a doing a heck of a lot worse than buying land next to a nature preserve in the Portland metro and building your own custom home on it. It’s all relative.

#prayers4matt

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking at how the population at large is doing and housing costs right now, you could be a doing a heck of a lot worse than buying land next to a nature preserve in the Portland metro and building your own custom home on it. It’s all relative.

#prayers4matt

He’s going to have a creaky a** house forever for building it during the winter 

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Models continue to look varied. No rudderless, stangnant weather patterns this Fall. I don't think we've seen a single weather regime last longer than a week since August.

That’ll wait until January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be getting KOLD.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Michael Snyder says to not bite on the hype,, can calls out the social media types.....I guess that's us huh?

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well hello...

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well hello...

I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño.

ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña.

And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño.

ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña.

And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime.

Will be interesting to watch how this develops. 

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

He’s going to have a creaky a** house forever for building it during the winter 

We had that concern going into it but we had it written into the contract that they can’t even stock drywall until the sticks test  to 15% or below. Might put us behind by a few weeks once it’s dried in around the end of the year but it’ll be worth it. Most builders will green light drywall at 20%.

[Doinko]

That storm on the 20th is still showing up

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

That storm on the 20th is still showing up

 

Even some mixed precip with it

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Even some mixed precip with it

 

Cold air pours in behind this system. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Even some mixed precip with it

 

Bye Eugene!

[Doinko]

Day 9

 

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We had that concern going into it but we had it written into the contract that they can’t even stock drywall until the sticks test  to 15% or below. Might put us behind by a few weeks once it’s dried in around the end of the year but it’ll be worth it. Most builders will green light drywall at 20%.

You so smart!!

[TT-SEA]

Significant lowland snow on the ECMWF within 10 days... time to start paying a little more attention.   

 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Day 9

 

Griswold-xmaslights-hallelujah-gif

[Deweydog]

Splendid Euro!

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro alert!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I seen worse.

[NorCal55]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I seen worse.

I hope it digs alittle more west to CA first!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I seen worse.

Gotta love that ridge for long-term prospects.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, NorCal55 said:

I hope it digs alittle more west to CA first!

It's not perfect, but it's a start. Several magic 8 ballz on the PDX ensemble chart.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow nice euro!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think next winter will be a niña. Fact is, no niña has occurred within 5 years of a 3+ year -ENSO in (at least) the last century. Sometimes the wait is much longer. The only exception is if that 3+ year niña was followed by a multi-year niño.

ENSO tendency emerges from intradecadal variability in the IPWP, and following a prolonged La Niña it takes awhile for the IPWP to return to a structure that favors the development of La Niña.

And the niñas that do eventually develop tend to be weak, east-based events imbedded within the intradecadal +ENSO regime.

The earth is a few billion years old. Saying something hasn’t happened in 100 years as fact that it won’t happen seems pretty pointless no?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS day 9 and 10

 

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

27 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Even some mixed precip with it

 

What normally happens when a strong storm goes South of the Portland area, it normally brings strong east winds through the Gorge which normally is cold temps. That's why there could be a mixed moisture. I saw this back in 95 (I think it was that year). I lived off 132nd and East Burnside and the forecast was just for a little snow but it snowed all day with strong east winds. We had snow drifts that went up to my waist. I think the NWS issued a blizzard warning for the Portland area (not positive about that tho). 

Well see if this storm keeps showing up in the next few days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The earth is a few billion years old. Saying something hasn’t happened in 100 years as fact that it won’t happen seems pretty pointless no?

We are also working with an extremely small sample size. This thing turning into a strong Nino seems to scream instant collapse. The only precedent for what Phil is arguing is something that last happened in the late 50s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Ken in Wood Village said:

What normally happens when a strong storm goes South of the Portland area, it normally brings strong east winds through the Gorge which normally is cold temps. That's why there could be a mixed moisture. I saw this back in 95 (I think it was that year). I lived off 132nd and East Burnside and the forecast was just for a little snow but it snowed all day with strong east winds. We had snow drifts that went up to my waist. I think the NWS issued a blizzard warning for the Portland area (not positive about that tho). 

Well see if this storm keeps showing up in the next few days. 

It's somewhat similar to the storm the week of Thanksgiving 2019. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS day 9 and 10

 

 

That's gorgeous. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Excellent EPS!

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's somewhat similar to the storm the week of Thanksgiving 2019. 

One of those about 150-200 miles farther north would be nice.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Sorry for adding so many pictures but I wanted to try and give you a 3D view of that storm. That's if this storm actually happens. As you can see by the wind flow, The East winds would be coming through the Gorge. The temperatures on the Eastside of Oregon and Washington isn't that good but I think the wet bulb would help drop the temperatures. 

[TacomaWx]

Will start hearing “WILL TREND NORTH” posts from a certain BC member soon

[lowlandsnow]

It's coming

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

It's coming

Oh dear.

[Cold Snap]

Some very nice ensemble runs this morning. That Euro control though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW - Phil, I am not saying your ENSO prognostication is wrong, just showing what some long range ENSO models are showing, which isn't shocking coming off what will likely be a STRONG Nino. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty dang serious ECMWF run today!  It's very interesting to point out the control runs on both the EPS and GEFS have been really cold the last few runs as well.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BTW - Phil, I am not saying your ENSO prognostication is wrong, just showing what some long range ENSO models are showing, which isn't shocking coming off what will likely be a STRONG Nino. 

This looks like it could easily be a quick hitting one year strong Nino followed by a significant Nina.  Kind of the same progression from 1971 through 1973.