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November 2023 Weather in the PNW


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1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

It concerns me that the Canadian also had the low make landfall farther north though

The GFS and GEM Op just haven’t caught up yet to the pattern change so I’m not surprised what they are showing. Once they catch on, it will be a big sudden shift to what the the EURO showed earlier. The 12z JMA is also on our side and from my previous experiences that model if it agrees with the EURO on cold weather, is a great signal that it will happen.

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The GEFS is such a piece of crap, no ensemble system should have this big of a run-to-run swing. The Euro ensembles will probably either nudge a bit toward the warmer solutions or stay put with 35-40 out of the 50 members showing cold. 
 

Edit — maybe I’m too harsh, the warm trend is there but not that crazy of a warm swing perhaps…

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1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The GEFS is such a piece of crap, no ensemble system should have this big of a run-to-run swing. The Euro ensembles will probably either nudge a bit toward the warmer solutions or stay put with 35-40 out of the 50 members showing cold. 

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it really is, absolute trash.  

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14 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fun fact: A family friend of my wife works at NOAA, but on fish things. Back during the storm of 2019, I causally brought up how our forum was mentioned in The Stranger and how maybe with a little edgy notoriety, we’d might get a pro met or two from Sandpoint to post. The next day my wife got a Facebook message from this government fishery friend and told her to tell me that someone who worked mornings said “they’d rather forecast on the Naked News Than ever log in to see what those children have to say, much less post about it”

 

I stopped asking if I could get a tour right after that.

I would’ve done the tour just for the lols. Take it as a half-compliment we don’t have the bureaucratic culture.

If you really want mets to post here, you’ll have to completely separate the straight meteorological analysis from all banter/in-house drama, and actually enforce it.  The freewheeling tone of conversation isn’t for everyone.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I would’ve done the tour just for the lols. Take it as a half-compliment we don’t share the bureaucratic culture.

If you really want mets to post here, you’ll have to completely separate the straight meteorological analysis from all banter/in-house drama, and actually enforce it.  The freewheeling tone of conversation isn’t for everyone.

head over to American WX?

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32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

cliff diving tonight and peak summiting by morning

ride the train

RYDE TILL WE DYE B4B13333333

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 16

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

 

head over to American WX?

I’ve been on AmWx since it replaced EasternWx, and I still vastly prefer it here. But I can see why some wouldn’t.

AmWx puts a lot of effort into separating the professional/scientific analysis from the regular banter. And during major events they institute a “storm mode” with harsh consequences for those who violate the rules. Seems a bit heavy handed to me but apparently that’s what people like. 🤷‍♂️ 

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00z Euro just made a big shift over E-Siberia/Okhotsk Sea. Not sure what the downstream consequences will be, yet.

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15 minutes ago, iFred said:

Fun fact: A family friend of my wife works at NOAA, but on fish things. Back during the storm of 2019, I causally brought up how our forum was mentioned in The Stranger and how maybe with a little edgy notoriety, we’d might get a pro met or two from Sandpoint to post. The next day my wife got a Facebook message from this government fishery friend and told her to tell me that someone who worked mornings said “they’d rather forecast on the Naked News Than ever log in to see what those children have to say, much less post about it”

 

I stopped asking if I could get a tour right after that.

I toured Sandpoint back in 2018-19 for my senior project. I reached out to Reid Wolcott and he let me tour the campus and meet everyone there.

You have to understand that these people are not like you and I. They're postgrad former party students or ex-military. They're not greasy weather nerds who know the perfect look to a BC slider, they're degreed professionals, half of which barely enjoy the weather and just do what they do for the same reason most any adult does what they do for a living---a paycheck. They're basically your mom or your dad.

If you're looking for the type of autistic enthusiasm that comes with posting #LOCKITIN at 3am to an audience of no one you're probably going to need to find a different office.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 16

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So yes the operational 00z GFS was doodoo tonight, but the GFS Ensembles continue to look good, especially for Seattle.

Something I think the Ensemble mean and single point meteograms don't fully capture is just how "close" things are to being the pattern you want. But looking at the individual perturbations will give a sense of this. And the majority of these look either excellent, or very very close to excellent for the entire region. Only a few members now show 0 snow for any of the lowlands. Or just look at p30 if you need a dose of copium here.

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3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Having joined last spring, the passion for winter weather on here is something to behold. You all have transcended snow weenie level and reached a level of desperation that is somewhat concerning if I’m honest. I don’t even care that much for winter if I’m honest but y’all have me cheering for snow so I can experience what will surely be pure jubilation from this group. 

Morel like addicts. Even when we do get snow, everyone is looking at the next set of maps to see when we might get more. Gotta have another fix of that (cold) white powder! 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve been on AmWx since it replaced EasternWx, and I still vastly prefer it here. But I can see why some wouldn’t.

AmWx puts a lot of effort into separating the professional/scientific analysis from the regular banter. And during major events they institute a “storm mode” with harsh consequences for those who violate the rules. Seems a bit heavy handed to me but apparently that’s what people like. 🤷‍♂️ 

The only problem I have with American Weather is that they don't focus much attention on the West Coast, including the PNW and California, unless that has changed recently.

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2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Morel like addicts. Even when we do get snow, everyone is looking at the next set of maps to see when we might get more. Gotta have another fix of that (cold) white powder! 

Not knowing what to do after a cold snap genuinely used to give me whiplash as a kid. It's gotten better with age, but it will always be a very sudden transition going from paying attention to the weather all the time, then back to your actual life. It feels similar to returning from vacation, maybe a little milder.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 16

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6 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

The only problem I have with American Weather is that they don't focus much attention on the West Coast, including the PNW and California, unless that has changed recently.

There’s a western subforum there, but it’s comparatively bland.

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Well the ECMWF did trend towards the other guidance, but not all the way. But definitely pushing that HI/Kona low farther east along w/ the ST ridge.

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1 hour ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Anyone with experience with Amtrak Bellingham to Seattle? 

 

Our oldest is at WWU this year and we have a train ticket for them on the 21st. Pretty sure they will be able to make it, but trying to make reservations for the trip back up on Sunday the 26th. Should we put them back on the train or drive them back up? 🤔 

 

Assuming that the train should be fine if it snows. Not sure about transport between the train station and school, but figure WTA will have some buses running and it would be better than us trying to make the round trip even with 4WD. Any advice? 

Work confirming its actually a train and not a bus.  Amtrak does augment their services with buses a lot.  We thought we were putting our daughter on the train to go to Montana, and it turned out to be a bus for the Bellingham to Seattle leg.

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Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

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3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

If I knew an epic storm was coming weeks/months out I wouldn’t mind it.

I remember tracking hurricane Sandy and something like 3.5 days out the ECMWF had 850mb winds over 115kts here while the GFS was a total whiff. I couldn’t sleep at night until that model battle resolved itself. 😂 (Of course the ECMWF won).

In the end we were spared by an inversion and “only” got 70mph gusts instead of 100+mph. That’s how I learned that the slightest difference in the in-situ boundary conditions can radically alter local outcomes.

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4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Work confirming its actually a train and not a bus.  Amtrak does augment their services with buses a lot.  We thought we were putting our daughter on the train to go to Montana, and it turned out to be a bus for the Bellingham to Seattle leg.

It should be a train. Looks like first and last of the day are trains and then they have 2 routes in between that are bus service. Unless we get a ton of rain and mudslides on the track around Everett that is always closing the Sounder. Not looking like that in the next week or so, but if it happens, they'll do the bus. 

 

Went ahead and did the train ticket but got the refundable fare. Mostly because I'd rather do a short drive to Seattle than a round trip to Bellingham and deal with traffic. 

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Just now, Phil said:

If I knew an epic storm was coming weeks/months out I wouldn’t mind it.

I remember tracking hurricane Sandy and something like 3.5 days out the ECMWF had 850mb winds over 115kts here while the GFS was a total whiff. I couldn’t sleep at night until that model battle resolved itself. 😂 (Of course the ECMWF won).

I can see that for hurricanes or tornados, especially for storm chasers and it would be great for evacuating people! 

If I knew I could see thundersnow, I would try to make a trip to see it. But for those edge cases, I wonder if I would like that uncertainty and hope more. Hard to day because we will probably never get that degree of certainty in our models--the atmosphere is just SOO complex and has patterns we probably haven't even seen yet. Fun to think of those being discovered too.

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9 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

You'd also have complaining about totals ten days sooner if they were exact. You're right. No fun in that.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Stats:

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Last Sub freezing Day: 11/29/23 (2nd)

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