November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking forward to the EURO today, the GFS was a total trainwreck! 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The EPS has remarkable run to run consistency even in instances with high uncertainty like next week. It's better dispersed than the GEFS, has more members, higher resolution, etc. It's the perfect antidote to the wild swings of +240h deterministic runs. 

I thought I read somewhere, or maybe heard from someone here or on twitter, that the Euro (and I cant remember if it was specific to the Deterministic, or the EPS, or both or whatever) is basically a blend or average of its previous run(s) and current one, or that only changes vs previous runs that are over some threshold of significance are incorporated into the latest runs. Have you heard anything like that? I wish I knew who said something to that extent...maybe it was Snyder. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just now, RentonHill said:

I thought I read somewhere, or maybe heard from someone here or on twitter, that the Euro (and I cant remember if it was specific to the Deterministic, or the EPS, or both or whatever) is basically a blend or average of its previous run(s) and current one, or that only changes vs previous runs that are over some threshold of significance are incorporated into the latest runs. Have you heard anything like that? I wish I knew who said something to that extent...maybe it was Snyder. 

Hmm...that could be a reference to their data assimilation method which does incorporate previous forecasts. I feel like that is pretty standard practice but I'm not enough of an expert to know what is different relative to the GEFS. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last nights 00z CFS shows Arctic air arriving days 9/10. Even colder air by day 12.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z CFS was not good in the long range though.

Edited November 13 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

What is going on?! lol

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

I empathize with you. I’m lying awake in agony here at 3AM myself. Back hurts so bad I’m dripping with sweat. honestly don’t know what I’m doing to do, can’t sustain this much longer. Will probably end up needing surgery.

just know you’re not alone. And you’re as appreciated by everyone as you are of them.  

Hows the numbness?  Have they Said what kind if surgery?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

By the way, don't bother to look at the GEFS.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

By the way, don't bother to look at the GEFS.  

What a dumpster fire. The world's premier model is NOT on board. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What a dumpster fire. The world's premier model is NOT on board. 

It has the alaska ridge, just nudged a little East. Honestly not that bad. 

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z CFS was not good in the long range though.

Would gladly sacrifice Thanksgiving for Christmas.

I hope it snows.

[Gradient Keeper]

If this goes completely off the rails it's not surprising as the potential pattern change and cold pattern was 8 days out. So we look for trends. We had them in our favor for 24 hours or so. Now that may be backing off. The Canadian solution would be okay with me. The CFS is kind of similar with a big backdoor shot. The EPS held serve pretty much. At least the GFS gives us a decent Columbia Basin cold pool. This isn't over yet we could easily go back to cold solutions. Let's see what the 12z Euro and EPS show today. Ya gotta believe!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If this goes completely off the rails it's not surprising as the potential pattern change and cold pattern was 8 days out. So we look for trends. We had them in our favor for 24 hours or so. Now that may be backing off. The Canadian solution would be okay with me. The CFS is kind of similar with a big backdoor shot. The EPS held serve pretty much. At least the GFS gives us a decent Columbia Basin cold pool. This isn't over yet we could easily go back to cold solutions. Let's see what the 12z Euro and EPS show today. Ya gotta believe!

Most solutions have the alaska ridge which we need for a cold shot. The placement of that will waffle, but as long as that keeps showing up I'd bet on some period of cold air for us. Now will we have precip? Who knows. 

[Snownerd3000]

https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20

Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. 

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Most solutions have the alaska ridge which we need for a cold shot. The placement of that will waffle, but as long as that keeps showing up I'd bet on some period of cold air for us. Now will we have precip? Who knows. 

The problem is that ridge is expected to be centered way north, it looks like it's going to get undercut by weak storms from the west. 

Central/eastern US snow weenies are licking their chops right now at our expense. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20

Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. 

I’m good with global cooling. Though I think neutral years have the craziest snows even though La Niña average is higher.

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20

Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. 

Also the Icelandic volcano will probably blow

[Kolk1604]

Too quiet this morning...

Day 4 

[the_convergence_zone]

These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away…

[Snownerd3000]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Also the Icelandic volcano will probably blow

Yep and that one looks juicy.

https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1724076210311791005?s=20

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away…

If I recall, there was cooling from the last Iceland eruption a few years back.  All I'm looking for is something to hopefully mitigate the warming induced by all the water vapor ejected into the atmosphere by Tonga.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Yep and that one looks juicy.

https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1724076210311791005?s=20

Holy !

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

For those expectations a huge, climate changing eruption from Iceland, think again.  Wont happen.  I've been following Iceland volcanic activity for years, and this activity won't end up with  a massive explosion.

First, it's the wrong kind of magma.  This is the kind of magma that produces effusive, fissure eruptions like the last 3 eruptions have since 2021 in the same region.

There is a decreasing chance that the eruption could start offshore, where the sudden heating of water from magma interaction could produce some (relatively) small explosions.  It could be devastating for that area, but nothing that would produce a massive eruption.  At the very most a VEI 2, and even that is very unlikely.

For official information from actual vulcanologists that know this area, here is the official web site with the latest information.

https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night

Though there is some good info on X and YouTube, there is also a lot of crap from doomsday people who know nothing about volcanoes and just like to get a lot of clicks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Holy !

Just posted how this certainly wont be a climate changing massive explosion.  

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away…

I agree, we need another Pinatubo.

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. 

[Christensen87]

GFS for the win. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. 

 Not sure how. EPS hasn't started yet. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. 

Big shift from the EURO for next Tuesday. I was not expecting that. Just gotta wait for the EPS now.

 

[Kolk1604]

Day 8. We're just going to call this a bad run. Server issues or something 

 

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just posted how this certainly wont be a climate changing massive explosion.  

Said that because the ground is cracking 

[Cold Snap]

Hoping that this is just an outlier for the Euro.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Said that because the ground is cracking 

It is certainly an interesting and dangerous situation, thanks for posting the picture. And I'm following it closely too.   But I just wanted to remind people that a massive climate changing eruption isn't in the cards.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize.  We should know better.  We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football.

Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen.  Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations.

But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised.

We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Tiger, hang in there and never give up fighting for hope. You’ve made it this far and you will continue to get better. With advances in medical technology you are in good hands. Hoping you don’t have to move to Indiana since you have lots of friends here but always do what’s best for you. 

The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly.

[HuskyMaestro]

13 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I agree, we need another Pinatubo.

Pinatubo was crazy for my family back home. I wasn't born until 6 years later but both my parents had to deal with the wet raining ash when a typhoon decided to join a big VEI-6 eruption for a double slice of hell. So the ash that was dispersed to the ocean got collected and brought all back to rain on Luzon. The pyroclastic flows from that eruption were scary textbook material. I wonder if I could ever head home and buy Pinatubo ashes for my garden lol 

[Phil]

10 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hows the numbness?  Have they Saud what kind if surgery?

Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient.

Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize.  We should know better.  We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football.

Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen.  Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations.

But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised.

We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out.

It felt flukey to me from the start. Almost bought into the hype, but the 00z runs saved me.

[Deweydog]

Euro suggests the trip to grandmother’s house might be safe and expeditious. Blessing.

#familyfirst

#livelaughlove

[Phil]

3 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

An interesting statistic year by year would be the number of winter cancel posts.  Which one do you think had the most?  2020-2021?

I couldn't even begin to remember which "storm" had the most number of winter cancel moments?  Gotta be one that trended north at the end.

I remember this forum had a major meltdown in January 2011, I think models snatched away 3-4 feet of lowland snow inside 3-4 days.

40 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I agree, we need another Pinatubo.

We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it.

@TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient.

Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that.

The newer artificial disc's are the next generation ones and are much longer lasting than the first generation ones.  They often didn't last more than 10 years and would have to be taken out and a fusion procedure would be done.

My fusion was minimally invasive, 4 small incisions that healed quickly. And I spent only 1 night in the hospital. It's going through the muscles that causes a lot of discomfort and stiffness.

If I had the option of an artificial disc, I would have done that.  And probably I could have had that done if I had more time to ask other surgeons, but due to my dropfoot, I didn't have time to waste.

Not an easy choice, and I guess if the simpler surgery doesn't work, the artificial disc would be an alternative.  My concern with your first option would be that, even if you didn't feel pain, that you would still have numbness because the nerve is still being compressed.   That's the question I would ask of my surgeon.  And of course 2nd opinions are important too.

[Slushy Inch]

Oof.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it.

@TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth.

Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public.

[the_convergence_zone]

The 12Z EPS is likely to be the final nail in the coffin. 

[Slushy Inch]

Oof.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

The 12Z EPS is likely to be the final nail in the coffin. 

Until it flips tonight.