November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Inversion szn is here... Gonna be cold and cloudy and dry for the next couple weeks. Better than warm anomalies.

Don't agree with cloudy part.   ECMWF shows tomorrow and Tuesday being quite sunny and then again from Thursday afternoon through the weekend with decent northerly flow.

Definitely chilly... but not that cloudy.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks lik weree down to 45F. Pleasmt n cooll m. Gratefl for frends thnk u. 
 

Takng lng time 2 post cuz my brain decidd to actt up

[Winterdog]

I've had six freezing lows until this morning's low of 43.  After a high of 47 today it is now 35.  It's very likely that it will hit freezing before midnight making it my 7th freeze in a row.  How's that for a consecutive freezing days butt kicking?  12 freezes this season looking for 14 by tomorrow.  5.66" this month in the bucket.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is much more troughy in the day 9-12 period.   00Z GEM is unchanged and shows ridging continuing unabated through day 10.

[Meatyorologist]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Don't agree with cloudy part.   ECMWF shows tomorrow and Tuesday being quite sunny and then again from Thursday afternoon through the weekend with decent northerly flow.

Definitely chilly... but not that cloudy.

Maybe not for your area deep within the foothills, but for my area what will end up being the case will be overnight clouds and condensation, with haze lasting all day despite sunshine.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe not for your area deep within the foothills, but for my area what will end up being the case will be overnight clouds and condensation, with haze lasting all day despite sunshine.

Hope u can get some freezngw temps. I’ll be thinking g postibly for u

[Deweydog]

102 days until spring.

[FroYoBro]

Have not been getting any freezes here in the last week. Tonight could be the night though! The skies have really cleared out in the last hour or so. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Have not been getting any freezes here in the last week. Tonight could be the night though! The skies have really cleared out in the last hour or so. 

I’m really pleased with how quickly it’s cleared out after this front. Already down to 39 which is the low for the day so far. Hit a high of 52 earlier with partly to mostly cloudy and breezy conditions.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 11/17/2023 at 7:06 PM, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Some tweets from Maue.  I know some don't like him, and that's fine, but he is a wealth of information regardless of how you might feel about him

So Graphcast did real well in the 5 day range, but the EPS was far better in the 10 day range.  But note another AI system being developed that may be better than EPS

 

 

 

 

Here’s the link for the GraphCast model for North America. This one shows 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature. There are other parameters on the website.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202311191200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311191800

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GraphCast shows a decent push of cold air into the Columbia River Basin Thanksgiving night into Black Friday morning. The light green is 0C to -4C 850mb temps. Dark green is -4C to -8C.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39.0˚F.

[Gradient Keeper]

38.3

@TigerWoodsLibido, bro please go rest a bit take care of yourself my friend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

38.3

@TigerWoodsLibido, bro please go rest a bit take care of yourself my friend.

I’ll try. Layig in bed rt now. 43f

thx 4 being such a good friendd

[Mercurial]

Can't get an appointment at Les Schwab or Tire Rama for the next few weeks to have my studded tires mounted.  This sucks.  Not sure why the tire shops are so backed up given that we have almost zero snow in the 10-day. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Mercurial said:

Can't get an appointment at Les Schwab or Tire Rama for the next few weeks to have my studded tires mounted.  This sucks.  Not sure why the tire shops are so backed up given that we have almost zero snow in the 10-day. 

Discount Tire always gets me in within one day or same day! 

[Mercurial]

Just now, MossMan said:

Discount Tire always gets me in within one day or same day! 

Nice, I'll check them out.  I think it's the holidays + the usual labor shortage stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

Seasons are just one of the many blessings that our wise Lord has bestowed upon us.

 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

At least this run has an actual system right after Day 10. Probably not a widespread resort opener, but could be enough to get some ski lifts spinning if it were to happen.

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Can't get an appointment at Les Schwab or Tire Rama for the next few weeks to have my studded tires mounted.  This sucks.  Not sure why the tire shops are so backed up given that we have almost zero snow in the 10-day. 

Tire Rama? Nice.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 hours ago, Winterdog said:

I've had six freezing lows until this morning's low of 43.  After a high of 47 today it is now 35.  It's very likely that it will hit freezing before midnight making it my 7th freeze in a row.  How's that for a consecutive freezing days butt kicking?  12 freezes this season looking for 14 by tomorrow.  5.66" this month in the bucket.

I'm up to 33 days getting below freezing, this season, but only 5 days in a row currently, as soon as it hits midnight both of those numbers will go up though as it is currently 24.2 degrees as I'm writing this. Kinda surprising you're on a longer cold streak, considering your location.

 

 

Assuming we get to freezing on Wednesday morning, which is the only day we might not, we're in for quite a long streak of days below freezing, quite a chilly forecast!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GraphCast shows a decent push of cold air into the Columbia River Basin Thanksgiving night into Black Friday morning. The light green is 0C to -4C 850mb temps. Dark green is -4C to -8C.

 

Could you post the link for that?

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm up to 33 days getting below freezing, this season, but only 5 days in a row currently, as soon as it hits midnight both of those numbers will go up though as it is currently 24.2 degrees as I'm writing this. Kinda surprising you're on a longer cold streak, considering your location.

 

 

Assuming we get to freezing on Wednesday morning, which is the only day we might not, we're in for quite a long streak of days below freezing, quite a chilly forecast!

Arlington can do quite well with low temps compared to much of the Puget Sound region.

[Kolk1604]

Is this... Something? Cold air building in the west. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

Super exciting. At least we manage cold nights, low level cold, and east winds.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's embarrassing to read what I've written in a seizure state but it is what it is.

Doesn't really feel like a night shift is gonna be a game-changer kinda night.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's embarrassing to read what I've written in a seizure state but it is what it is.

Doesn't really feel like a night shift is gonna be a game-changer kinda night.

Not your fault with all of that. No worries. Yeah night shift won't be too exciting.

6z GFS in 2 hours 27 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Could you post the link for that?

Here you go. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202311200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311200600

[Jbolin]

Hey guys, 

I thought I'd drop in and express how much this forum means to me, especially after my rapid departure back in August. A very close loved one passed and it hit me a lot harder than I ever thought it would despite years and years of animosity and directed personal hatred. 

Needless to say I'm still coping and mourning despite what I felt would be a welcome "departure" and yet I find myself questioning why I even felt that way to begin with. All I'll say is that if you have any sort of animosity or disdain for someone based purely on emotions, DON'T. Rethink it before you can't mend that "fence" or say "I'm sorry". 

Aside from my remaining family, you bastards are the next closest thing a guy could have to friends. Thank you. 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Hey guys, 

I thought I'd drop in and express how much this forum means to me especially after my rapid departure back in August. A very close loved one passed and it hit me a lot harder than I ever thought it would despite years and years of animosity and directed personal hatred. 

Needless to say I'm still coping and mourning despite what I felt would be a welcome "departure" and yet I find myself questioning why I even felt that way to begin with. All I'll say is that if you have any sort of animosity or disdain for someone based purely on emotions, DON'T. Rethink it before you can't mend that "fence" or say "I'm sorry". 

Aside from my remaining family, you bastards are the next closest thing a guy could have to friends. Thank you. 

Hey buddy. I'm sorry to hear of your loss, and that is good, sound advice for anyone. Enduring loss really put things in a clearer perspective. I know that much. We find out what truly matters, and maybe we approach things differently with friends or family. Anyhow. Good to see you around.

12z NAM in 5 hours 33 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

34.0

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Hey guys, 

I thought I'd drop in and express how much this forum means to me especially after my rapid departure back in August. A very close loved one passed and it hit me a lot harder than I ever thought it would despite years and years of animosity and directed personal hatred. 

Needless to say I'm still coping and mourning despite what I felt would be a welcome "departure" and yet I find myself questioning why I even felt that way to begin with. All I'll say is that if you have any sort of animosity or disdain for someone based purely on emotions, DON'T. Rethink it before you can't mend that "fence" or say "I'm sorry". 

Aside from my remaining family, you bastards are the next closest thing a guy could have to friends. Thank you. 

Grateful that we all share a common friendship that can be there for one another when we need it. I'm so sorry about what you've been going through. You're in my thoughts. Thank you for being such a good friend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 36F

Stars were out earlier.

[Gradient Keeper]

33.1 with very dense fog. Down in southern CA it's a different story.

Big time winds in southern CA above 1000' roughly. These are all wind gusts 50mph or higher.

 

[Tyler Mode]

East wind keeping things a touch warmer in the foothills.  3rd freeze of the month finally here.  30.

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe not for your area deep within the foothills, but for my area what will end up being the case will be overnight clouds and condensation, with haze lasting all day despite sunshine.

Not trying to split hairs here but sunny and hazy is not really cloudy.    Otherwise Phil would never see the sun all summer and he says its always sunny in the summer.  

Here is an example from Saturday... this is definitely sunny and also hazy.    The forecast for Seattle shows plenty of sun but quite chilly.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's embarrassing to read what I've written in a seizure state but it is what it is.

Doesn't really feel like a night shift is gonna be a game-changer kinda night.

You should see my drunk rants from 10yrs ago. Much worse. Honestly you have nothing to be embarrassed about. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not trying to split hairs here but sunny and hazy is not really cloudy.    Otherwise Phil would never see the sun all summer and he says its always sunny in the summer.  

Here is an example from Saturday... this is definitely sunny and also hazy.    The forecast for Seattle shows plenty of sun but definitely chilly.

That just looks like a sunny day lol. Though I’ve probably forgotten what a true “clear” day is since the air has been gunky 90% of the time since April. Worst I can recall in my lifetime to date.

My guess is your “clear” boundary layer days are simply clearer than here since you have the Pacific Ocean upstream. Less aerosols to advect in vs having 1000+ miles of land upstream.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That just looks like a sunny day lol. Though my perspective might be warped because of how gunky the air has been here since spring. 

But I do think your “clear” boundary layer days are simply clearer than here since you have the Pacific Ocean upstream. Less aerosols to advect in vs having 1000+ miles of land upstream.

Definitely in the warm season.   At this time of year the low level gunk around here is all home grown due to trapped moisture and pollution under the inversion.   We can still have spectacularly clear days though usually with northerly flow through the Sound.    We had a few days like that last week... like Thursday shown below. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely in the warm season.   At this time of year the low level gunk around here is all home grown due to trapped moisture and pollution under the inversion.   We can still have spectacularly clear days though usually with northerly flow through the Sound.    We had a few days like that last week... like Thursday shown below. 

Yeah I took this when visiting in July. Basically unlimited visibility. I legitimately felt healthier after just 2 days sleeping with open windows.

[TT-SEA]

Sunrise alert... some high clouds over patchy fog in Seattle with a clear view of the Cascades.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

This was my morning commute. Really foggy

[T-Town]

Sunrise through the window. 

[TT-SEA]

[Tyler Mode]

Fogged in at ground level, but just above...

[Tyler Mode]

Beautiful colors around this morning!

[SnowWillarrive]

Currently 31 here. Another nice freeze