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November 2023 Weather in the PNW


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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wonder if KSEA will end Nov below average?

Pretty likely with dry weather for most of the rest of the month.    Warm anomalies usually require clouds and rain at this time of year.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For me... by far the most depressing aspect of weather around here is when we have a cold/wet/gloomy April and May.   Probably a common feeling for most non-weather people.   Only mentioning again because talking about depressing weather seems to be popular on here.   Persistent winter=like weather when the days are really long feels so wrong.   But the exact same weather doesn't bother me at all in the late fall and winter.   Seasonal lag can be a real b*tch in the northern states.  😀

By April or May I’m very ready for warm sunshine. But cold and wet in those months usually means dynamic weather so I don’t usually mind. 

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thursday through Sunday may find highs struggling to reach 40F under a strong inversion. Freezes each night too.

ECMWF is showing to mid to upper 40s for Thursday-Saturday when the upper levels are not really warm and there is good mixing.  I am pretty sure you are rushing the inversion set up.    Much warmer air moves in aloft on Sunday and Monday per 12Z ECMWF so that is when the inversion might strengthen but then it shows an incoming front which mixes things out quickly by Monday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

By April or May I’m very ready for warm sunshine. But cold and wet in those months usually means dynamic weather so I don’t usually mind. 

It can be interesting and less likely to be gloomy by the water in those months.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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High temp of 54.5 at 2:30PM, and we're already down to 29.6! Temperatures change quite quickly here in a setup like this, always love seeing that!

 

I noticed crown point got a 71 MPH gust today at 2PM, thats pretty breezy! Anyone know if this weekend could be just as windy as today, perhaps even more windy then today, up there? Although I know what type of setups cause wind there, I'm not very good at predicting how windy... Might be a good weekend to head up there to see the wind and do a hike in the gorge! 

Screenshot_20231120-174612_Chrome.jpg

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Coldest temp this winter: 3F November 27th

Current model I'm riding (biased and changes often): GFS

Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated 5PM December 2nd)

Snow depth at my home (updated December 2nd 5:30PM): 2.5"

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3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

High temp of 54.5 at 2:30PM, and we're already down to 29.6! Temperatures change quite quickly here in a setup like this, always love seeing that!

 

I noticed crown point got a 71 MPH gust today at 2PM, thats pretty breezy! Anyone know if this weekend could be just as windy as today, perhaps even more windy then today, up there? Although I know what type of setups cause wind there, I'm not very good at predicting how windy... Might be a good weekend to head up there to see the wind and do a hike in the gorge! 

Screenshot_20231120-174612_Chrome.jpg

ECMWF wind map shows Saturday night and Sunday being similar to today in the gorge.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Aleutian low showing up on some of the long range guidance now.  Would likely throw some body shots at the PV.  🥊 

Indeed, would help with the wave-1/displacement response starting towards the end of December. If we can get a Scandinavian high going at the same time, then I’d be excited about a bonafide SSW.

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Indeed, would help with the wave-1/displacement response starting towards the end of December. If we can get a Scandinavian high going at the same time, then I’d be excited about a bonafide SSW.

setting up a fun February, who would've thunk it? 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I am hoping that pendulum swings the other way in 2024... I like the chances.

Ahhh yes...just what we need. A super warm and sunny April/May to decimate the measly snowpack we do get this winter. Considering last May was more above normal than April was below normal (at least at SEA) maybe we'll get a really troughy and cool May!

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 0"

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8 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

I don't remember what elevation you are at. I also got snow (0.7 in) in Sherwood at 195 feet. Asking around before most said they didn't have snow if they were on the Valley floor.

Around 250 feet

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20 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Thank you!

I'm going to be interested to see if this Graph Cast is any good or not.  Won't take long to see for ourselves.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

setting up a fun February, who would've thunk it? 

Hard road to hoe with a Nino of this magnitude.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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This is one of those weird night where it's 38 here and 50 just 2 miles NE of here.  Ironically this is caused by the same east wind that would bring the areas that are warm tonight snow while I get just ZR or a sloppy mix here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

10 years ago RIGHT NOW things were about to turn quite ridgy.

It got cold a few weeks later! 2013-2014 has not been a discussed along. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.41”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 8.89”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

I decided not to pursue it. There aren’t enough puke emojis in the universe to adequately convey my disgust with academic culture. What little talent I have would be put to better use elsewhere.

Did you get an invite to sit in on a program? I figure you'd make the trip to State College.

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57 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ahhh yes...just what we need. A super warm and sunny April/May to decimate the measly snowpack we do get this winter. Considering last May was more above normal than April was below normal (at least at SEA) maybe we'll get a really troughy and cool May!

Even normal is fine... just don't want winter in April and May.    I doubt that is an unusual opinion.  ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Around 250 feet

You were probably just high enough then (quotes taken out of context was not intended). Snow level seemed to be around 300 feet. With me I got snow because the setup was the correct one where the Chehalem Mountains would see cold air damming but the Coast Range won't (NNE winds). I think your location got a little help from the west hills raise the precip rates just enough. 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Retro-style retrogression.

Hopefully we don’t end up that dry this winter. Only thing that doesn’t add up with that analog is it was a neutral winter :( 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.41”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 8.89”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hopefully we don’t end up that dry this winter. Only thing that doesn’t add up with that analog is it was a neutral winter :( 

Feels like a pretty awful analog. But some winters are better for looking back rather than looking forward.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

10 years ago RIGHT NOW things were about to turn quite ridgy.

I washed vehicles in late November (I miss two of those 4 vehicles) a nice overrunner before Christmas, and a frosty Christmas at the lake! 

IMG_0444.jpeg

IMG_0445.jpeg

IMG_0446.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 hours ago, Winterdog said:

Wow!  That’s incredible.  You are at 4200 feet and must be in somewhat of a valley giving you some great radiational cooling on top of having the advantage of your central Oregon location.  

We average 223 days with lows below 32F. Our course we are at 6200' in a valley. This year I think we only went like 60 days without a freeze. 

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GFS really wants to go zonal in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS really wants to go zonal in the long range. 

The GraphCast looked pretty zonal on the 12z FWIW.  It was showing a deep trough digging over the NW Pacific as well which could cause the jet to buckle somewhere over the North Pacific a bit down the road.

Looks like a total crap shoot going forward.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Temp is skyrocketing…Up to 42 now. 

It's going to be weird patch work of temps tonight.  A southerly component to the surface gradient is causing some places to scour out besides the typical east wind warm spots.  I'm holding onto to cold air by my fingernails here so far tonight.  Currently 36.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

I think of it like sports. Like if the Jets lose, I’m used to it. But once in a great while, they have a nice season. And Joe Namath was winning the Super Bowl in…January 1969.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think of it like sports. Like if the Jets lose, I’m used to it. But once in a great while, they have a nice season. And Joe Namath was winning the Super Bowl in…January 1969.

I am very passive when it comes to weather, unless you need to mow the yard anything else in life can still be accomplished no matter what the weather is doing.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Temp is skyrocketing…Up to 42 now. 

Sitting at 31.9 here with no wind at all.  Had a high of 44.  I'm still expecting the temp to go up before midnight but I might get lucky and keep my streak going.

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Dream run on the ECMWF....if you like fake cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Sitting at 31.9 here with no wind at all.  Had a high of 44.  I'm still expecting the temp to go up before midnight but I might get lucky and keep my streak going.

Still holding on here.  The pressure gradients begin to relax late tonight so some places will stay cold.

I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail a night like this to perfection.  The ECMWF is on the right track, but is still off on many locations.  It showed no freezing low temps for the Puget Sound region tonight and a few places are already there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Dream run on the ECMWF....if you like fake cold.

I like any cold. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Most impressive run yet with the upcoming inversion.

1700524800-d4gidWFEX3Q.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like any cold. 

Same.

We're actually doing fairly good here lately.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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"Fake cold" haha my brother in Christ, inversions are a real weather phenomenon. In fact they are the most primitive and common weather phenomenon we end up experiencing during the winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 16

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Managed a fairly cool day here, with the milder east wind holding off this evening and mercifully leaving our inversion intact.

Ended up with a 49/34 spread. Morning fog and frost, then sunny skies and light winds. Clouding up a bit now.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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7 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have never really understood the whole weather depression thing, probably never will.  If I wake up tomorrow, it's a good day whether it is sunny or wet. 

"Depressing" is very different than depression.   Depression is a medical condition and not something that can be fixed by saying just be happy.   People say certain weather patterns are depressing on here all the time.  What they really mean is that they find it annoying.  That does not mean they are suffering from depression.   Unfortunately, real depression is fairly common and its not something to dismiss.

For me... the thing that I find most annoying is when April and May are really cold and wet.   That is all.   Everyone has preferences and things they like and don't like.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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52 and breezy here this morning.   

Looks like the rain holds off until well after dark and is done by morning.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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