November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TT-SEA]

Nice November day...

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 59/46 day on Friday. Dense morning fog gave way to partly sunny conditions in the afternoon, with overcast and rain arriving late in the day.

Rained hard overnight into Saturday morning. Picked up close to another inch out here. Up to 2.5” on the month already. 

Yesterday was mild to warm with rain in the morning tapering off to partly to mostly cloudy skies and very mild conditions with breezy SW winds. Very similar to Thursday. 64/52 spread (midnight low).

Today has been partly to mostly sunny so far. Mild low of 50. Rain looks to be moving in in a few hours, but it looks like another 60 degree day is likely on the books for PDX. Sitting at 57 here. Looking forward to cooler, more seasonable temps going forward.

[Ken in Wood Village]

With the clearing and a little warmer, this could bring more instability to the showers to form into thunderstorms. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Would be nice if the timing were such where we’d get heavy rain during the day and clearing at night. It’s been the total opposite lately, perfect for maximizing warmth  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The fall foliage this year has been off the charts. Took a drive around the valley this morning and the colors are gorgeous. Last year was not great for fall colors, this year may have peaked a little late, but ended up hitting all the right notes. 

[RentonHill]

daily squid

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with over an inch of rain with that line of thunderstorms yesterday. Up to 3.36” on the month. Last November started extremely wet, and then was fairly dry the rest of the month. We ll see if we can score a truly wet November. 

[RentonHill]

yeeet

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

yeeet

 

Hope my flight out of PDX that day isn’t delayed. 

[Deweydog]

Looks backdoor.

Sounders will be peeved.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The fall foliage this year has been off the charts. Took a drive around the valley this morning and the colors are gorgeous. Last year was not great for fall colors, this year may have peaked a little late, but ended up hitting all the right notes. 

100%

The last few days have been gorgeous.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Wow, this storm is very active

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

daily squid

 

Trend not so good.  

But good chance initializing from the -WPO/+NPO/+EPO state is the reason for the stronger PV trends in the LR, and that will reverse once seasonality+MJO changes the pattern to +WPO/+PNA & building Scandinavian High (which many members won’t pick up at this range).

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

100%

The last few days have been gorgeous.

`Conflicting reports.   Our chief weenie Karen was just puking at the recent weather.  

[Phil]

Not to be downer, but the Scandinavia/Eurasia pattern is..not very inspiring. To put it lightly. At least for the next 3 weeks.

Way too early to draw conclusions, but that will have to change dramatically for arctic air to establish in western Canada under this base state.

Because the Niño/NPAC Jet will increasingly attempt to flood W-Canada with warmth as time goes on, and something needs to counteract that. The LP (IOD/ENSO) regime has an iron grip on the tropical forcing variability right now, and until IOD loses influence, that can’t change without external help from Strat/BDC against building static stability.

Worst case outcome (maybe 30% probability?) is TPV/SPV vertically stacks over Beaufort Sea/W-Arctic, secondary TPV establishes over Scandinavia/Nordic Seas/Greenland. In which case all of Canada, and at least the NW half of the lower-48, falls into an unmitigated blowtorch for the first 6-8 weeks of winter (until IOD loses influence).

Don’t think that is overly likely, but it is a distinct possibility that has become more distinct over the past week.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

`Conflicting reports.   Our chief weenie Karen was just puking at the recent weather.  

To each their own!

[Cascadia_Wx]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

To each their own!

Not ok!!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not ok!!

Definitely not according to you!!!    

[Phil]

Just saw 12z EPS. Hard to get worse than this over Eurasia. And keeps getting worse D10-15.

Scandinavia troughing, TPV stacking over Beaufort/W-Arctic, and a stable RWD pattern over the NPAC. Will completely shut down WAFz from both NPAC and Eurasia, allowing SPV/+NAM to strengthen uninhibited.

Terrible. Actually worse than 2015 and 2019 were at this point. Loading pattern for eventual Canadian megatorch.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not ok!!

We’re very aware, Jesseratops.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Interesting line of showers coming onshore now. It's really heavy rain. Wonder what it will look like when it gets to the Portland area 🌧

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just saw 12z EPS. Hard to get worse than this over Eurasia. And keeps getting worse D10-15.

Scandinavia troughing, TPV stacking over Beaufort/W-Arctic, and a stable RWD pattern over the NPAC. Will completely shut down WAFz from both NPAC and Eurasia, allowing SPV/+NAM to strengthen uninhibited.

Terrible. Actually worse than 2015 and 2019 were at this point. Loading pattern for eventual Canadian megatorch.

Feels like we are probably cruising towards a pretty mild first third of winter. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Mesoanalysis

11/5/23 1:30 PM

UPDATED.

The atmosphere has become increasingly unstable over the past 2-3 hours. The sunshine ahead of the system now moving inland has helped to destabilize the atmosphere. We have ample wind shear, low level shear and spin, cold air aloft, and modestly steep lapse rates in place. Thunder is definitely possible with the activity this afternoon and evening.

 

(Observed over PDX)

- THERMODYNAMICS
SBCAPE: 400J/kg. Surface Cap: NONE
MLCAPE: 150J/kg. Mid-Level Cap: NONE
MUCAPE: 400J/kg. EL TEMP: -20c (cooling)
LIFTED INDEX: +1
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 6.7C/km (Max 2-6km: 7.0C/km)
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.4C/km

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- KINEMATICS
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR: 40 KTS
0-6 KM SHEAR: 25-30 KTS
0-1 KM SHEAR: 20 KTS
EFFECTIVE HELICITY: 25 M2/S2
0-3 KM HELICITY: 150-200 M2/S2
0-1 KM HELICITY: 100 M2/S2

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- MOISTURE
PWAT: .64"
DEWPOINT: 51 F

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- UPPER AIR TEMPS/WIND
925MB: +9.9c / Wind: SSW 20 KTS
850MB: +4.0c / Wind: SW 25 KTS
700MB: -5.7c / Wind: SW 35 KTS
500MB: -22.0c / Wind: WSW 30 KTS

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
-12z SLE SOUNDING
Freezing Level: 7289'
Convective Temp: 62 F

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re very aware, Jesseratops.

I haven’t bashed anyone’s preferences or called names for quite some time. Same can’t be said for some…

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t bashed anyone’s preferences or called names for quite some time. Same can’t be said for some…

You literally do this all the time.   Snarky mocking without quoting the people your are mocking.  Your reputation is well earned.   Show me one post where I said anything bad about anyone's preferences.   Find one.   Good luck. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t bashed anyone’s preferences or called names for quite some time. Same can’t be said for some…

You’ve been a very good boy. And…

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The fall foliage this year has been off the charts. Took a drive around the valley this morning and the colors are gorgeous. Last year was not great for fall colors, this year may have peaked a little late, but ended up hitting all the right notes. 

ours seem about the same over here.  but most deciduous trees here (maples, oaks, fruit trees) are human planted except a few birch, aspen and cottonwood

[Cascadia_Wx]

As has been mentioned, the fall colors have been quite gorgeous this week. One of the later peaks I can ever remember, but beautiful nonetheless. Some shots from the eastern Gorge near Rowena and Mosier a few days back.

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

most leaves are now gone other than the apples

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

ours seem about the same over here.  but most deciduous trees here (maples, oaks, fruit trees) are human planted except a few birch, aspen and cottonwood

Not sure about that side of the mountains... but I think over here getting lots of rain in September really helped the fall colors.

[the_convergence_zone]

In the hills around Issaquah… 

[Phishy Wx]

headed to Calgary for work on Tuesday, looks like weather isn't much different than here,  high in the 40s lows in the 30s.  a little cooler, that's about it.  no parka needed this time.  

[Ken in Wood Village]

14 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Mesoanalysis

11/5/23 1:30 PM

UPDATED.

The atmosphere has become increasingly unstable over the past 2-3 hours. The sunshine ahead of the system now moving inland has helped to destabilize the atmosphere. We have ample wind shear, low level shear and spin, cold air aloft, and modestly steep lapse rates in place. Thunder is definitely possible with the activity this afternoon and evening.

 

(Observed over PDX)

- THERMODYNAMICS
SBCAPE: 400J/kg. Surface Cap: NONE
MLCAPE: 150J/kg. Mid-Level Cap: NONE
MUCAPE: 400J/kg. EL TEMP: -20c (cooling)
LIFTED INDEX: +1
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 6.7C/km (Max 2-6km: 7.0C/km)
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES: 7.4C/km

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- KINEMATICS
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR: 40 KTS
0-6 KM SHEAR: 25-30 KTS
0-1 KM SHEAR: 20 KTS
EFFECTIVE HELICITY: 25 M2/S2
0-3 KM HELICITY: 150-200 M2/S2
0-1 KM HELICITY: 100 M2/S2

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- MOISTURE
PWAT: .64"
DEWPOINT: 51 F

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- UPPER AIR TEMPS/WIND
925MB: +9.9c / Wind: SSW 20 KTS
850MB: +4.0c / Wind: SW 25 KTS
700MB: -5.7c / Wind: SW 35 KTS
500MB: -22.0c / Wind: WSW 30 KTS

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
-12z SLE SOUNDING
Freezing Level: 7289'
Convective Temp: 62 F

I hope you are able to keep us updated on this. It will give us a better understanding on what's going on in the atmosphere. 

I went out shopping for groceries and it felt very warm and muggy. Those showers are getting closer and heavier. It will be interesting to see what happens when they hit warmer temperatures. 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about that side of the mountains... but I think over here getting lots of rain in September really helped the fall colors.

we're still technically in a drought.  I'm guessing we getting close to eradicating it though.  I haven't really looked into it

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

most leaves are now gone other than the apples

Oddly attenuated here this year. A lot of maples turned rather early while enough held on to make the last 5-7 days turn into a stunner. Might be the best we’ve done since 2008, which was absolute top tier, albeit 2-3 weeks earlier.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Feels like we are probably cruising towards a pretty mild first third of winter. 

I don't have a good sense of what this winter will bring... but think December is the best chance for cold/snow.  

Much easier to predict next spring and summer.   

[Phishy Wx]

feels like an all or nothing, if you don't do it in December it ain't happening kinda winter.  maybe some late fun in the second half of Feb.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

feels like an all or nothing, if you don't do it in December it ain't happening kinda winter.  maybe some late fun in the second half of Feb.

If the current analogs have anything to say about it, December has a great shot this time around.  A huge percentage of the top 10 analogs from the various model runs had nice December cold snaps regardless of ENSO.

Hard to expect anything from the second half of the winter as of now though.

[The Winter Warlock]

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't have a good sense of what this winter will bring... but think December is the best chance for cold/snow.  

Much easier to predict next spring and summer.   

Right now summer is about as easy as it gets.  Above normal temps and probably drier than normal until further notice.

IMO the summers are responsible for 90% plus of the current shrinking glacier problem we are having.  Just an incredible run of warm ones.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, The Winter Warlock said:

Where is this from?

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oddly attenuated here this year. A lot of maples turned rather early while enough held on to make the last 5-7 days turn into a stunner. Might be the best we’ve done since 2008, which was absolute top tier, albeit 2-3 weeks earlier.

We had that early shot of chilly nights in late September / early October.  That got things started and then it torched which kind of stopped the turning process IMO.  The recent cold snap was perfect for brining on fast blazing color.

[Gradient Keeper]

45 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As has been mentioned, the fall colors have been quite gorgeous this week. One of the later peaks I can ever remember, but beautiful nonetheless. Some shots from the eastern Gorge near Rowena and Mosier a few days back.

 

 

Very nice.

00z GFS in 5 hours 7 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Radar Update

*Western Oregon

11/5/23 2:29 PM

Here she comes! A nasty rest of the afternoon and evening is on tap. You can also see some embedded squalls in the moderate to heavy rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

19 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Great pics. Which lake is that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The big rain the last day of August was huge. That got everything greening up, and we got enough rain in September to keep it going. 

[The Winter Warlock]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Where is this from?

 

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Great pics. Which lake is that?

Lake Morton - I have a DJI Mini 2 drone that does pretty well.