11/19 - 11/22 Arklatex Low - Great Lakes/OHV Cutter???

[jaster220]

Quote

I am interested in exactly where the models come into agreement on the SLP track. That ofc is always a make-or-break deal here in the Metro. 

This morning's 12z GFS and Euro take the SLP up to S Lk Huron. Meanwhile the R/GEM x-fer from WOH over to the EC. This is what I'm watching. IF the more northerly progression wins out, NMI could see a mix and/or coating perhaps before the moisture pulls eastward.

[jaster220]

On 11/18/2023 at 11:12 AM, Tom said:

These are subtle changes, but the 12z GFS is less flat and more amped on this run.  The last 4 runs illustrate what I was suggesting regarding the 0z Euro from last night.

 

Great call in noticing that jet streak movement. 

DTX:

Quote

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain will work into the area late Monday night and focus
on Tuesday as low pressure tracks through the area. Moisture
profiles for this system are around the 90th percentile for November
21. This gives increasing confidence for rainfall amounts of one
half an inch or more for many locations. Local probabilistic
guidance suggests that local rainfall totals could perhaps approach
one inch, especially for the metro Detroit region south to the Ohio
border. Rain will shift quickly east of the region Tuesday night.
This rainfall should not create any notable flooding issues with
only ponding of water on roadways and possible minor flooding issues
in the usual susceptible low lying and poor drained areas.
 

 

[gabel23]

Well just another disappointment in the drought stricken areas of eastern Nebraska. Unless wrap around brings more will end up well short of forecast. Drought breads drought. 

[Clinton]

The 21 day dry streak came to an end yesterday afternoon and so far .40 in of rain have fallen. I'm looking for an additional half inch today and tonight. The highest totals once again have been in eastern Kansas up through KC and NW Missouri where 1-2 inches have fallen. 

[Tom]

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

[CentralNebWeather]

12 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Well just another disappointment in the drought stricken areas of eastern Nebraska. Unless wrap around brings more will end up well short of forecast. Drought breads drought. 

Yep, very poorly forecasted in our areas. Looks like I ended with 0.25”, when over 1.0” was in the forecast over Sunday and Monday. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

Time will tell, but I do like (for future storms) how it manages to keep the SLP south of here. Not that running up over DTX in November would be rare but it keeps the theme going from last winter in that regard. 

[Niko]

In NYC for the Thanksgiving holiday week. Some rain is looking likely for here tomorrow, but nothing of significance. No big nor-easters, thankfully, as well. That will change though down the road, big-time for the i-95 corridor..

Note: Models are showing that Nino is at peak levels now, and will only decline from here on. As winter arrives, it goes  into a moderate nino, if not a weak nino.I think that we will get true, harsh winter conditions from mid January into mid March. That is just my thinking for now, if nino declines ,as predicted. Definitely not expected to be strong or very strong, so that is some good news.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

In NYC for the Thanksgiving holiday week. Some rain is looking likely for here tomorrow, but nothing of significance. No big nor-easters, thankfully, as well. That will change though down the road, big-time for the i-95 corridor..

Note: Models are showing that Nino is at peak levels now, and will only decline from here on. As winter arrives, it goes  into a moderate nino, if not a weak nino.I think that we will get true, harsh winter conditions from mid January into mid March. That is just my thinking for now, if nino declines, as predicted. Definitely not expected to be strong or very strong, so that is some good news.

I would agree that it is better than a continued warming into super/mega Nino threshold. But, sometimes there is an atmospheric lag-time though. So, while ENSO may have cooled, the effects aren't too quick to effect on our real wx. Anyways, looks like your wish for nice travel conditions has happened for ya. Later this winter, when the next HECS is imminent, you can play Jim Cantore in downtown Chicago for GHD-1, except you'll be in Central Park no doubt.   

[jaster220]

@Hoosier It looks like that slight bump in the jet will treat Chicago/your area much better than originally expected:

Quote

AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
604 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Through Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Spotty showers develop from the south this afternoon, with more
  widespread rainfall expected later tonight into early Tuesday. A
  soaking rainfall, with highest amounts of 0.75"-1.00"+,
  continues to be favored for areas east of the I-55 corridor.

* Rain ends from west to east late Tuesday morning and afternoon.

* Blustery east winds gusting up to 25 mph today, shift north-
  northwest with gusts around 30 mph by Tuesday afternoon. Temps
  steady/falling in the lower 40s with wind chills in the 30s
  Tuesday afternoon.

This would be a nice system in mid-winter form. Iirc, last winter the S Stream systems just brushed your area and focused more favorably for DTW than ORD. The one on 1/25 for example:

 

 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep, very poorly forecasted in our areas. Looks like I ended with 0.25”, when over 1.0” was in the forecast over Sunday and Monday. 

Picked up 0.25” here as well, which was about what I expected (we might pick a bit more with the deformation band as it rotates back west today)… just frustrating to watch these systems dry out as they move into the central plains states. I am glad that we got some type of moisture this week, especially since the upcoming Black Friday weekend now looks cold and dry here.

There just isn’t any type of signal we are going to bust out of this drought worsening pattern, I continue to wait for things to change (whenever that is)!

[jaster220]

I was out on an errand and the winds have increased gusting near 30 mph. Many leaves blowing around. With WC's in the mid-30s and now overcast grey skies, its easy to see what this would look like in a future cycle. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm seeing some encouraging signs that this system continues strengthening as it cuts up into S IL/IN and pulls copious moisture northward into a healthy looking defo band....

I know I mentioned having cold air to work with in future cycles. But tbh, in keeping with last winter's theme the S Stream systems never had true fresh arctic air to work with. The 12/23-24 storm came into warm conditions with a rain->snow scenario with the bitter air after the fact. Both other storms were very marginal temps as I suspect this one would be, even 4 or 6 weeks from now. Nino's are known to bring us a lot of split flow and here we see it again. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I know I mentioned having cold air to work with in future cycles. But tbh, in keeping with last winter's theme the S Stream systems never had true fresh arctic air to work with. The 12/23-24 storm came into warm conditions with a rain->snow scenario with the bitter air after the fact. Both other storms were very marginal temps as I suspect this one would be, even 4 or 6 weeks from now. Nino's are known to bring us a lot of split flow and here we see it again. 

It was almost every single storm last year where "timing" was messed up and what "coulda" been.  I was soooo frustrated and maybe that was my last straw and gave up on winters in the Midwest and why it was time for me to head out west!  I'm with ya though, this winter I think the S Stream is dominant and I will add that I am relying on the Euro and JMA seasonal to nail the JAN-MAR forecast of it being much colder so we will see plenty of cold air around to tap.  This storm next cycle...Look out!

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

It was almost every single storm last year where "timing" was messed up and what "coulda" been.  I was soooo frustrated and maybe that was my last straw and gave up on winters in the Midwest and why it was time for me to head out west!  I'm with ya though, this winter I think the S Stream is dominant and I will add that I am relying on the Euro and JMA seasonal to nail the JAN-MAR forecast of it being much colder so we will see plenty of cold air around to tap.  This storm next cycle...Look out!

Yeah, this system coming into legit cold would be impressive. Let's hope that comes to fruition as they are showing. 

[mlgamer]

This is a nice looking system on radar. I'm getting into the dry slot a bit, but this is a system to keep an eye on during future cycles. I have picked up almost 1" of rain so far which was much needed and much welcomed.

[tStacsh]

37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, this system coming into legit cold would be impressive. Let's hope that comes to fruition as they are showing. 

This looks like a perfect track for my area.  Would've could've should've been a nice 6" incher plus.   Hope it repeats.  

[jaster220]

57 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

This looks like a perfect track for my area.  Would've could've should've been a nice 6" incher plus.   Hope it repeats.  

Unless we spike towards midnight, this will be the coldest day at DTW since the 1st. Currently 39F/31F WC

Temps are currently in the 20s just north of Toronto. Seems that region will be our cold source for future version(s) of this set-up.

[Timmy Supercell]

These are gnarly. The one by Natches, MS might have some big hail in it. 

[jaster220]

I liked this from the TAF for DTW:

Quote

After a brief lull in gustiness, renewed mixing affords an increase in gust potential from
the east early Tuesday.

 

[jaster220]

 

Lotta moisture with this. A nice SLP presentation. DTX mentioning that this will come right over top of us, while elsewhere in their pm write-up (multiple contributors ofc) they mention it staying just to our south basically going across Erie into Lk Ontario. Hoping to see qpf on the higher end of forecast for a change. Not to mention we could use the moisture. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Unless we spike towards midnight, this will be the coldest day at DTW since the 1st. Currently 39F/31F WC

Temps are currently in the 20s just north of Toronto. Seems that region will be our cold source for future version(s) of this set-up.

Currently, the freezing line is not more than a county or two ENE of here across S ONT. Even some stations reporting 32F in SEMI. Makes me think that there is more potential for mixy p-type than the offices have been willing to accept. Just then I noticed the NCEP map and sure enough, they have the mixed p-type line just about splitting Detroit. Stubborn cold HP in ONT.

[jaster220]

How often do you see returns over KOMA and KTOL from the same storm whose SLP is several states away? Returns trying to show SN over parts of WMI. Kind of surprising how close this is to a winter event considering there was no adverting it as such and no dump of arctic air beforehand. 

[jaster220]

DTW hourly calling for 0.82" and blustery conditions late morning/midday:

[jaster220]

From an APX update

Quote

Precip will develop northward, pushing into southern portions of our area after 2am.
The leading edge of the precip shield will be capable of producing snow, especially over
the higher elevations.

 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Returns trying to show SN over parts of WMI

No snow here but a cold rain with a temperature of 34 here in MBY

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

No snow here but a cold rain with a temperature of 34 here in MBY

APX mentioning it was on their radar too but just virga. 

Single digit temps in Canada feeding cold air into this system's leading edge making it a close call.  

[Clinton]

.75 is the final rainfall tally for mby. Nice storm and one I hope repeats a couple times this winter.

[Tom]

Forgot to post this over the weekend as we had a rare mountain TOR up near Payson, AZ on Sun morning as the cold core anbd Upper Level energy moved through the northern part of the state.

 

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/national-weather-service-to-survey-wind-damage-from-possible-arizona-tornado

[mlgamer]

Storm total of 1.10" in MBY. That was the first REAL measurable rain here in November (officially 0.01" before this storm).

[Bryan1117]

Ended up with 0.40” total from this system… not going to lie, I expected much less than that. We will take it!

[Grizzcoat]

.07" at KDSM.  18 days with not even a trace of precip broken with .07".  Last stretch longer than this 18 day stretch was 20 days from Sept 30 - Oct 19th 2015.  ( crappy winter)

There have been only 18 stretches of 18 or more consecutive days of no precip in the Des Moines climo record.

The longest on record is 25 days. NWS didn't say the year.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

.07" at KDSM.  18 days with not even a trace of precip broken with .07".  Last stretch longer than this 18 day stretch was 20 days from Sept 30 - Oct 19th 2015.  ( crappy winter)

There have been only 18 stretches of 18 or more consecutive days of no precip in the Des Moines climo record.

The longest on record is 25 days. NWS didn't say the year.

 

I recorded .35 for this system.    I had 24 consecutive  days without  1 drop.  I have 8 straight  months with below avg precip.

OTM  has 18.08" for the year 2023.

OTM yearly deficit  now sits at 16.81" and sad to say climbing. 

While I keep hear that Iowa and the midwest  is becoming  wetter with climate  change. I see just the opposite  in my area. 8 of the past 12 years have been below  avg precip. And the 4 wet years WERE NOT MUCH WETTER THAN THE AVERAGES.  I have no clue what is going on. I have no clue why one of the farthest  south  and east parts of Iowa  can be the driest?  My company  has literally  lost millions  in revenue.  And theres no insurance  as with Ag crops.  In 2017 wapello  and davis counties  were declared federal  disasters and after 60 pages of paperwork we didn't  get 1 cent. But in 2020  bankers begged us to tap into the Covid relief by the 10s of thousands.   Twisted place!

If someone  knows of a higher rainfall deficit  in the plains/midwest than the OTM 16.81 please let me know.  OTM WILL PROBABLY  RUN A 31 OR 32 INCH DEFICIT  FOR 2022/2023. UNREAL!

[jaster220]

Not too far off the forecasted 0.5-1" issued by DTX for this event, but at 0.47" here it certainly was opposite of what I was hoping for. As per usual/typical with these larger S Streamers, the best forcing & duration bisected SMI in a strip from the bottom of Lake Michigan NE towards Saginaw Bay. Along that axis you can find the 1"+ totals I was hoping for here. It also appears that some of the larger numbers put up were in those two regions and likely the lake waters with a NE wind made some contribution. 

@Tom Looks like the slight "bump" N in the jet stream would've been winter magic for a good portion of Chicago. The SW side put up some of the highest numbers. This reminds me a bit of the 2/24-25 2016 storm that @Hoosier was referring to from the strong Nino analogs. 

[jaster220]

LES bands streaming across NMI, where I hope to living soon.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not too far off the forecasted 0.5-1" issued by DTX for this event, but at 0.47" here it certainly was opposite of what I was hoping for. As per usual/typical with these larger S Streamers, the best forcing & duration bisected SMI in a strip from the bottom of Lake Michigan NE towards Saginaw Bay. Along that axis you can find the 1"+ totals I was hoping for here. It also appears that some of the larger numbers put up were in those two regions and likely the lake waters with a NE wind made some contribution. 

@Tom Looks like the slight "bump" N in the jet stream would've been winter magic for a good portion of Chicago. The SW side put up some of the highest numbers. This reminds me a bit of the 2/24-25 2016 storm that @Hoosier was referring to from the strong Nino analogs. 

Yup, ORD did good with 1.05" along with a raw NE wind off the lake....it was probably one of those gloomy depressing autumn days that I'm glad I wasn't around for! 

[jaster220]

On 11/22/2023 at 5:07 PM, Tom said:

Yup, ORD did good with 1.05" along with a raw NE wind off the lake....it was probably one of those gloomy depressing autumn days that I'm glad I wasn't around for! 

I'm dreaming of a solid 1" qpf event (non-summer convection). Over here it seems hard to achieve. Gone many months with smaller events. What was fairly common place in Marshall seems to be a challenge here. I think maybe we had one last Nov or Dec. Will have to look. 

Edit- Sort of correct. No 1"+ events this autumn yet, but last winter (more wet than white here) we were able to score about one event per month. This autumn has been noticeably drier and the deficit is growing at -2.63" for SON.

[Hawkeye]

I got 0.24" from this system.