May 2014 Observations and Discussion

[tim the weatherman]

was looking at the summer forecast and the weather channel is calling a colder than normal summer for most of the nation from the eastren rockies to the east coast except for texas.

[Tom]

@ WildWisconsin, I'm probably staying out here for another 2 weeks or so.  No interest in coming back home just yet, however, if the Hawks continue going deep into the playoffs I'd like to come home and go to a few games.

[Geos]

Ready for these clouds to go away! Early May, midday and it's only 51°.

 

[Tom]

It's amazing to see the eastern 1/2 of Canada still under 20-60"+ of snow in May!  I'm thinking there may still be some snow cover around Memorial Day weekend in the deepest places.  Eastern Canada won't warm anytime soon.

[james1976]

a few rays of sunshine today. first time since last saturday. up to 60 now.
1.55" total rain for the week.

[tim the weatherman]

It's amazing to see the eastern 1/2 of Canada still under 20-60"+ of snow in May!  I'm thinking there may still be some snow cover around Memorial Day weekend in the deepest places.  Eastern Canada won't warm anytime soon.

i agree

[tim the weatherman]

this is the what tom said that eastren canada and the where it is centered is around hudson and james bay  becaused the polar vortex was at and this showed that central and parts of westren canada don't have snow cover.http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/GIF/comb_recent.png

[Niko]

It's amazing to see the eastern 1/2 of Canada still under 20-60"+ of snow in May!  I'm thinking there may still be some snow cover around Memorial Day weekend in the deepest places.  Eastern Canada won't warm anytime soon.

Thats why we are in for some cool air masses because of the snowcover there and also there is still ice in parts of the greats lakes. During the upcoming summer months,  that water will be running probably well below normal tempwise, which will cause our summer to be a very cool one. Thunderstorms will be limited here also and probably be confined to our south where warmer temps are likely to be occurring.

 

Edit: my trees here are still bare and here we are May 2nd already...wow.

[Tom]

Exactly, that's why Michigan and states near the lakes may not have a real Summer this year.  Places west of the Mississippi are in a better location to see surges of warmth.  I'm still convinced that overall Jun-Aug will be below normal and cool shots will be very frequent. I'll make an early call and I don't think Lake Michigan's water temps near Chicago get above 72F this Summer.

[Tom]

12z Euro still pumping temps into upper 70's/low 80's on Wed/Thu...

 

[Geos]

12z Euro still pumping temps into upper 70's/low 80's on Wed/Thu...

 

Thanks for posting these. I let my subscription end several days ago.

 

Had a little shower with the sun partially out. Resulted in a faint rainbow!

[Geos]

About to 56° already. Gusty West winds should hold back any lake breeze that attempts to move inland.

[East Dubzz]

What a great day for prom today!

[Tom]

00z Euro...pumping low 80's into C WI on Thursday...

[Geos]

00z Euro...pumping low 80's into C WI on Thursday...

 

Might have to take the afternoon off that day! 

 

Up to 63° here today.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Might have to take the afternoon off that day! 

 

Up to 63° here today.

 

It should make it past Waukegan, but I doubt the warm front makes it past Green Bay.  These fronts still get frequently hung up once the warm humid airmass reaches Lake Michigan, and any MCS' beforehand will slow the progression.

[james1976]

today was great. upper 60s and sunny and breezy. cleaned up the yard and mowed for the first time.

[Geos]

It should make it past Waukegan, but I doubt the warm front makes it past Green Bay.  These fronts still get frequently hung up once the warm humid airmass reaches Lake Michigan, and any MCS' beforehand will slow the progression.

 

GFS showing it making it to the U.P. With a Bermuda high to aid the warm front progression and time of year, I wouldn't doubt it.

 

[Tom]

Surprisingly, GFS has been really consistent with a trough over the East and a massive ridge over the West Week 1-2.  Stubborn chill just doesn't want to leave.  Some real hot weather may be in store out hear next weekend.  Already forecasting some 101F days next Sun/Mon out here.  MJO forecasted to head into Phase 1&2 which means cool weather may be in store.

[Geos]

Looks like we will be in Phases 1 and 2 for a time, but then the amplitude crashes by the 17th. Will be interesting to see if there is any correlation to the GFS model runs.

 

 

Little cooler today, but not bad. 

[Tom]

This upcoming week may be the best week of the Spring season for a large part of the region.  Wed/Thu will feel summer like, Friday/Sat about average and then another warm up next Sunday into the 80's according to the 00z Euro.  GFS wants no part of it.  Lets see if the GFS scores a coupe with this long range prediction.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles starting to trend cooler Week 1-2.  Something to pay attention to down the road.

[Tom]

CFSv2 now seeing a cooler trend...like the GFS...

[Alec Isaacs]

Hoping for severe weather in Chicago next week, but the current timing isn't looking favorable. We'll see if current trends continue.

[Geos]

CFSv2 now seeing a cooler trend...like the GFS...

 

Only about -5°F from normal. Not all that bad in May. haha

 

As long as the growing season isn't affected I don't mind it being a little cool now.

 

High 54° today with full sun after 1pm.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Only about -5°F from normal. Not all that bad in May. haha

 

As long as the growing season isn't affected I don't mind it being a little cool now.

 

High 54° today with full sun after 1pm.

 

Sure, but a pretty decent anomaly from average.  For a monthly average -5F would be approaching top 5-10 coldest Mays.

[Geos]

Sure, but a pretty decent anomaly from average.  For a monthly average -5F would be approaching top 5-10 coldest Mays.

 

Luckily that map is only for 10 days. 

 

83° forecasted here for Thursday! That's going to feel out of this world. 

[Tom]

12z Euro sends another storm up into the Upper Midwest and pumps low 80's across the region early next week...

[Geos]

Very nice morning going on. Little cool, but full sun. 

 

Quite the impressive corridor of heat tomorrow across the Plains...

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 consistently looking like the GFS in long range...its not like we haven't seen this type of pattern before.

[Geos]

Overall I think next week will be seasonable. Been hearing about another surge of very warm air next week.

 

Wednesday-Friday's highs will boost the departure around here above normal for sure. (month to date). 

 

Low to mid 50s right now - bit better than yesterday.

[Tom]

Early next week on the 00z Euro looks real warm on Mon/Tue, been showing that for a few days now.  That is the only model showing this at the moment.  GGEM/GFS is cooler and next week looks chilly on both models.

[Tom]

12z Euro...still pumping warmth next Monday...Nebraska with March like temps...

[james1976]

wow thats a sharp cutoff in temps

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles now trending cooler Week 1-2, following GFS lead...its funny to see the model trend towards the Phase 2/3 temp anomaly of MJO that it was forecasting for days now.  A few days ago it was blow torch warm, now model see's the cold coming.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Overall I think next week will be seasonable. Been hearing about another surge of very warm air next week.

 

Wednesday-Friday's highs will boost the departure around here above normal for sure. (month to date). 

 

Low to mid 50s right now - bit better than yesterday.

 

Today's high will do nothing of the sort, Waukegan is now predicted for mid 60s, which would be pretty much right on average.  Thursday's high will, and Friday may feature a midnight high.

[james1976]

pushing 80 and humid right now!

[Madtown]

63 today supposed to get to 75. Don't think that is happening

[East Dubzz]

Forecast was 83 yesterday. Currently 68, so that ain't happening. But I prefer this anyway, so I'm not complaining.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Forecast was 83 yesterday. Currently 68, so that ain't happening. But I prefer this anyway, so I'm not complaining.

 

Here it's even worse, Eastern Wisconsin is the only region in the eastern half of the country with a plethora of current temps in the 40s.  Forecast high was 60 this morning, so far our high is 51F, but it will be tough to break that unless the winds shift a bit from their current NE direction.