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January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Minny_Weather

By Minny_Weather
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Late start this morning, but back in the saddle...the data continues to support a southern track...0z EPS indicating an Arklatex Low that cuts NE into the Lower Lakes....for an ensemble showing a mean SLP in the 980's and deepening suggests to me this has Bomb potential.  The Operational runs will have varying run-to-run inconsistency with strength/phasing, etc but the overall "picture" is there that a bonafide Winter Storm is in the cards.

 

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Hawkeye
Hawkeye

I just received 1" of snow in 15 minutes.  This was an incredible burst.

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

Hey everyone.  You were probably wondering why I disappeared.  Blame Mediacom cable.  On December 26th, my internet crapped out.  Unfortunately, because I was the only customer affected, I was put at

CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

Frosty New Year’s Day.         

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

It's a cloudy and a bit breezy day today as we have a weak trough about to hit N Baja and into S AZ bringing some light rain and snow to the southern part of the state near Tucson.  Mt Lemmon towers up to 9,159 Ft and does get some pretty good snowfall when colder storms roll on through.  In any event, it looks and feels like a Winter's day out here in the Valley of PHX.

 

JAN 1st PHX NWS Graphic.png

 

I think I'm going to be planning a trip up into the mountains sometime this week.   The lead storm on Wed/Thu appears it will be a decent storm to my east up in the White Mountains.  The Big Dog rolling through next Sun/Mon has much bigger potential to dump some Big Snows and with a base of snow being laid down earlier in the week, I think this could be the one to go up north into Flagstaff area.  Let's see.

 

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Black Hole Grand Master

Black Hole

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

sn10_024h-mean-imp.conus.png

This is how I see this storm tracking at this point. 

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Late start this morning, but back in the saddle...the data continues to support a southern track...0z EPS indicating an Arklatex Low that cuts NE into the Lower Lakes....for an ensemble showing a mean SLP in the 980's and deepening suggests to me this has Bomb potential.  The Operational runs will have varying run-to-run inconsistency with strength/phasing, etc but the overall "picture" is there that a bonafide Winter Storm is in the cards.

 

11.gif

GFS went for 979 mb in OK

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it’s overcast and 39*.  
Rain on the way. It hasn’t been a real winter to date. Generally warm and dry.  
We need rain and real cold for the fruit crops if nothing else. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   

Historic Record High 120.0*F
Record Low Temp. - 2*F - 1989

 

hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Multiple 3-5+ inch storm systems on the 12z GFS brings the snowfall total for Sioux Falls close to 20 inches by the end of the run. 

At least it's looking like a more active, stormy, and cooler period is on deck so even if the big kahuna doesn't work out placement-wise it appears there will be other upcoming chances. 

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Weather Station: Sodak Weather 

2025/2026 Winter Current Snow Total: 34"

  • November: 9"
  • December: 15"
  • January: 2"
  • February: 1"
  • March: 7"
Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

12z models runs today are gold.  I feel like some of us are sleeping on the storm later this week and maybe rightfully so but models won't let this go.  Todays run of the CMC isn't bad and has gone back to a solution EAX mentioned this morning.

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

snku_acc-imp.us_ov.png

hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Euro sucks for here but did move slightly north when compared to its 00z run, so I'll take that and run with it. 

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Weather Station: Sodak Weather 

2025/2026 Winter Current Snow Total: 34"

  • November: 9"
  • December: 15"
  • January: 2"
  • February: 1"
  • March: 7"
Black Hole Grand Master

Black Hole

Posted
Posted

For the first system on the 5th, this is probably a good take on the ECMWF. A decaying system will bring some areas of snow west and possibly north of here. I expect a period of snow with little to no accumulation. So maybe a trace to 1" being the favored solution. On top of the lack of cold air, the decaying nature of the precip as it approaches will really limit me.

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

Black Hole Grand Master

Black Hole

Posted
Posted

Still a lot of uncertainty with the 2nd storm. I think I like the CMC ensemble the best for how I see it evolving. It'll probably focus over KS with some bleedover into north-central OK and SE NE before tracking NE towards the lakes. I expect to again see some flakes in the air here, but the most likely outcome is little to no accumulation (Tr-2").

image.png

Worth noting the ECMWF sitting south still:

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But the lack of cold air rushing in behind it means a lot of the precip is wasted as rain. Most of its ensembles keying in on that little to no accumulation idea.

image.png

So in the end I see this as a somewhat interesting event for here but most likely forgettable in the long run with likely two very minor accumulations of snow at best. However, the pattern remains in place in the extended so additional snow chances may develop.

Best of luck to you just north of me, I think you'll do just fine!

 

 

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Founder of https://satellitewx.com

hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

Probabilities of 3+ inches on the 12z EPS have the axis a little jog north from where it was on the 00z. A nice increase for Iowa especially. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-snow_ge_3-5233600.png

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Weather Station: Sodak Weather 

2025/2026 Winter Current Snow Total: 34"

  • November: 9"
  • December: 15"
  • January: 2"
  • February: 1"
  • March: 7"
hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

12z EPS control has two main systems... The one we have been tracking on the 9th and an even larger one around the 12th. Ends up pummeling a good chunk of folks on here. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-central-snow_48hr-4844800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-central-snow_24hr-5147200.png

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-central-total_snow_10to1-5168800.png

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Weather Station: Sodak Weather 

2025/2026 Winter Current Snow Total: 34"

  • November: 9"
  • December: 15"
  • January: 2"
  • February: 1"
  • March: 7"
Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted

There were flurries this morning, but still working on a first actual sticking snow, whenever it happens.

High 37 today, was forecast to be 39. 3rd day that I observed winter precip falling for what it's worth.

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