Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
12Z ECMWF is basically dry for the next week... and shows a mostly sunny weekend. No real warm weather or ridging either.
It does show a little c-zone action around Seattle on Friday morning but not much rain anywhere else.
Also shows a ULL swinging through on day 9 (next Wednesday) which might track offshore just enough to bring in some rain. But its moving through quickly so probably won't amount too much... and the details will likely change beyond day 7 as usual.
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