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Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

18z NAM still looking healthy for Saturday's Clipper to deliver 3-5" snows for N IL...some 6" totals showing up through Saturday...        

DominicR
DominicR

LOT:

DominicR
DominicR

Yes Tom and surface reflection looks pretty decent so we can see some plauisable winds coming off the lake as SLP tracks across north-central IL (as for now)

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

12z Euro weakens the Saturday Clipper as it heads into N IL...850's stay below -10C so expect snow ratios around 15:1.  Euro also showing signs of brief LehS for lakeside counties as the Clipper pivots to the south of Chicago when winds turn off the lake for a short period.

 

 

 

 

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

Posted
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Phil on FB:

Morning commute could be a bit slick early Thursday as we should see about an inch of snow by daybreak. I am more concerned with Saturday. This map shows about 2-4" from an Alberta Clipper. Could be some locally higher amounts so be aware if you plan on traveling Saturday.

 

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

Posted
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LOT:

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WOULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ALL SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE QUAD CITIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS POINT IS ON THE NORTH AND THUS COLDER SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP SATURATED DGZ FROM AROUND 900 MB UP TO 600 MB
STARTING MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
PRONOUNCED VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THAT PERIOD. ON A
REGIONAL SCALE...24 HR QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY MAX OUT AT JUST A COUPLE TENTHS AND GENERALLY LINE UP
ALONG A SWATH FROM MSP THROUGH ORD AND INTO CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN ITS
CURRENT POSITION...IT IS OF COURSE FAR TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. AT THIS RANGE IT SEEMS AT
LEAST PART OF THE LOCAL OR NEIGHBORING AREAS COULD SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED BY THE QUICK SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

Posted
Posted

00z NAM still looking good for 3-5"...

The consistency is quite good at this stage. What also interests me is the intensity of the snowfall shown. Most of the snow accumulates in 6 hours so very heavy rates will likely be possible. Definitely going to create some issues especially how well it will stick to the roads.

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

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The consistency is quite good at this stage. What also interests me is the intensity of the snowfall shown. Most of the snow accumulates in 6 hours so very heavy rates will likely be possible. Definitely going to create some issues especially how well it will stick to the roads.

 

Yeah this be a 6-9hr snow event. Def could see a few hrs of 1+ if this keeps up. Insentropic lift looks pretty impress ahead of WAA.

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bud2380 Mentor

bud2380

Posted
Posted

I think it's pretty unlikely this will shift far enough west to give me any hope. It's pretty interesting to look at the evolution of this system. It hits the southeast Alaska coast tomorrow morning then eventually dives down Saskatchewan into Manitoba. So not an Alberta clipper since it really won't hit Alberta much at all, just clipping the far ne corner. Definitely a Saskatchewan screamer. Or a term I made up when I was a kid, Manitoba monster.

Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z NAM really showing an easterly fetch off the lake on this run...I'm wondering how much lake moisture can work into this system.  Check out the warmer temps coming off the lake...its only a 6 hour period but some bands may develop in this situation as the SLP track south of Chicago.  Not sure if the models are picking up on this just yet or may in future runs.

 

 

 

 

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Posted

I think it's pretty unlikely this will shift far enough west to give me any hope. It's pretty interesting to look at the evolution of this system. It hits the southeast Alaska coast tomorrow morning then eventually dives down Saskatchewan into Manitoba. So not an Alberta clipper since it really won't hit Alberta much at all, just clipping the far ne corner. Definitely a Saskatchewan screamer. Or a term I made up when I was a kid, Manitoba monster.

 

Manitoba Mauler is the correct name I believe. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

Posted
Posted

00z NAM really showing an easterly fetch off the lake on this run...I'm wondering how much lake moisture can work into this system.  Check out the warmer temps coming off the lake...its only a 6 hour period but some bands may develop in this situation as the SLP track south of Chicago.  Not sure if the models are picking up on this just yet or may in future runs.

 

Yes Tom and surface reflection looks pretty decent so we can see some plauisable winds coming off the lake as SLP tracks across north-central IL (as for now)

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DominicR Newbie

DominicR

Posted
Posted

LOT:
 

 

FAST ON THE HEELS OF CLIPPER CINCO (MORE ACCURATELY IT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A MANITOBA MAULER GIVEN IT`S ORIGINS IN MANITOBA....BUT
FOR THE SAKE OF OUR CLIPPER COUNT WE`LL LUMP SEIS IN WITH THE
CLIPPERS!) IS NONE OTHER THAN CLIPPER SEIS WHICH SHOULD BE DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW COULD EXIST FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEIS AND
CLOUD COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE VIGOROUS WITH SEIS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE LEFT OF
ITS TRACK. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THIS FELLA IN THE LATEST
MODELS...INCLUDING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIZABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IT`S NOT HARD TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SEIS LAYS DOWN A
NARROW SWATH OF LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT
THIS POINT IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND A IT
WOULD BE MORE SURPRISING IF MODELS DON`T BOUNCE AROUND THAN IF THEY
DO...SO IT WOULD BE STUPID TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFICS WITH
REGARDS TO WHO STANDS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. TO USE THE ANALOGY OF
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HURRICANES...OUR CWA WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE CONE...IF NOT SMACK
DAB IN THE MIDDLE. DO PLAN TO START RAMPING THINGS UP IN THE HWO AND
WX STORY IN THE HOPES THAT SUCH RHETORIC WILL CONVINCE THE MODELS TO
SHIFT THE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA!

 

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Snowshoe Apprentice

Snowshoe

Posted
Posted

I like living near the border of 2 CWAs. It's fun to read both Green Bay and La Crosse to look for differences.

 

NWS LaCrosse

FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ANOTHER STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF QPF.
WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 20 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA
WILL PICK UP A 3 TO 6 INCH BAND OF SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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