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Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.


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12z Euro weakens the Saturday Clipper as it heads into N IL...850's stay below -10C so expect snow ratios around 15:1.  Euro also showing signs of brief LehS for lakeside counties as the Clipper pivots to the south of Chicago when winds turn off the lake for a short period.

 

 

 

 

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Phil on FB:

Morning commute could be a bit slick early Thursday as we should see about an inch of snow by daybreak. I am more concerned with Saturday. This map shows about 2-4" from an Alberta Clipper. Could be some locally higher amounts so be aware if you plan on traveling Saturday.

 

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LOT:

THE NEXT UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WOULD CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC
NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ALL SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE QUAD CITIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
LOCAL AREA AT THIS POINT IS ON THE NORTH AND THUS COLDER SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP SATURATED DGZ FROM AROUND 900 MB UP TO 600 MB
STARTING MIDDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
PRONOUNCED VERTICAL MOTION NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THAT PERIOD. ON A
REGIONAL SCALE...24 HR QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY MAX OUT AT JUST A COUPLE TENTHS AND GENERALLY LINE UP
ALONG A SWATH FROM MSP THROUGH ORD AND INTO CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN ITS
CURRENT POSITION...IT IS OF COURSE FAR TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. AT THIS RANGE IT SEEMS AT
LEAST PART OF THE LOCAL OR NEIGHBORING AREAS COULD SEE A SHORT
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED BY THE QUICK SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

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00z NAM still looking good for 3-5"...

The consistency is quite good at this stage. What also interests me is the intensity of the snowfall shown. Most of the snow accumulates in 6 hours so very heavy rates will likely be possible. Definitely going to create some issues especially how well it will stick to the roads.

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The consistency is quite good at this stage. What also interests me is the intensity of the snowfall shown. Most of the snow accumulates in 6 hours so very heavy rates will likely be possible. Definitely going to create some issues especially how well it will stick to the roads.

 

Yeah this be a 6-9hr snow event. Def could see a few hrs of 1+ if this keeps up. Insentropic lift looks pretty impress ahead of WAA.

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I think it's pretty unlikely this will shift far enough west to give me any hope. It's pretty interesting to look at the evolution of this system. It hits the southeast Alaska coast tomorrow morning then eventually dives down Saskatchewan into Manitoba. So not an Alberta clipper since it really won't hit Alberta much at all, just clipping the far ne corner. Definitely a Saskatchewan screamer. Or a term I made up when I was a kid, Manitoba monster.

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00z NAM really showing an easterly fetch off the lake on this run...I'm wondering how much lake moisture can work into this system.  Check out the warmer temps coming off the lake...its only a 6 hour period but some bands may develop in this situation as the SLP track south of Chicago.  Not sure if the models are picking up on this just yet or may in future runs.

 

 

 

 

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I think it's pretty unlikely this will shift far enough west to give me any hope. It's pretty interesting to look at the evolution of this system. It hits the southeast Alaska coast tomorrow morning then eventually dives down Saskatchewan into Manitoba. So not an Alberta clipper since it really won't hit Alberta much at all, just clipping the far ne corner. Definitely a Saskatchewan screamer. Or a term I made up when I was a kid, Manitoba monster.

 

Manitoba Mauler is the correct name I believe. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z NAM really showing an easterly fetch off the lake on this run...I'm wondering how much lake moisture can work into this system.  Check out the warmer temps coming off the lake...its only a 6 hour period but some bands may develop in this situation as the SLP track south of Chicago.  Not sure if the models are picking up on this just yet or may in future runs.

 

Yes Tom and surface reflection looks pretty decent so we can see some plauisable winds coming off the lake as SLP tracks across north-central IL (as for now)

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