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Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.


Geos

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LOT:
 

 

FAST ON THE HEELS OF CLIPPER CINCO (MORE ACCURATELY IT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A MANITOBA MAULER GIVEN IT`S ORIGINS IN MANITOBA....BUT
FOR THE SAKE OF OUR CLIPPER COUNT WE`LL LUMP SEIS IN WITH THE
CLIPPERS!) IS NONE OTHER THAN CLIPPER SEIS WHICH SHOULD BE DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT. SMALL WINDOW COULD EXIST FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEIS AND
CLOUD COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE VIGOROUS WITH SEIS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE LEFT OF
ITS TRACK. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THIS FELLA IN THE LATEST
MODELS...INCLUDING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIZABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE IT`S NOT HARD TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SEIS LAYS DOWN A
NARROW SWATH OF LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AT
THIS POINT IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND A IT
WOULD BE MORE SURPRISING IF MODELS DON`T BOUNCE AROUND THAN IF THEY
DO...SO IT WOULD BE STUPID TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFICS WITH
REGARDS TO WHO STANDS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. TO USE THE ANALOGY OF
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HURRICANES...OUR CWA WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE CONE...IF NOT SMACK
DAB IN THE MIDDLE. DO PLAN TO START RAMPING THINGS UP IN THE HWO AND
WX STORY IN THE HOPES THAT SUCH RHETORIC WILL CONVINCE THE MODELS TO
SHIFT THE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA!

 

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I like living near the border of 2 CWAs. It's fun to read both Green Bay and La Crosse to look for differences.

 

NWS LaCrosse

FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ANOTHER STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF QPF.
WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 20 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA
WILL PICK UP A 3 TO 6 INCH BAND OF SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
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There's going to be a pretty sharp cut off to the south and west. Going to come down to the wire with this one I think.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wave for Saturday, just moving onshore now. 18z runs should have the complete data for it.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z RGEM developing a Meso Low feature around the southern tip of Lake Michigan Friday night...could enhance snowfall lakeside counties...

I think we're good for a widespread 3-5 inches with isolated higher amounts. It's going to be interesting if models get a bit stronger as this gets closer. If they do I can see LOT going with a Winter Storm Warning for some areas.

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I agree Scott, that's what happened with the last Clipper.  Approx 36 hours before the event it was looking more and more impressive.  However, if it intensifies stronger it can veer more on an easterly track unless it tracks near IA/IL border.  Signs pointing to a potent little Clipper.  The heaviest band of snow will be very narrow so it will take the perfect track to hit N IL with highest amounts.

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I agree Scott, that's what happened with the last Clipper.  Approx 36 hours before the event it was looking more and more impressive.  However, if it intensifies stronger it can veer more on an easterly track unless it tracks near IA/IL border.  Signs pointing to a potent little Clipper.  The heaviest band of snow will be very narrow so it will take the perfect track to hit N IL with highest amounts.

 

One of my favorite synoptic rules I've learned...If a storm comes in stronger it will veer to its left. The past storm is a perfect example. The low was forecasted near the WI/IL border, ended up 75-100 miles north, and dropped a foot of snow, not 5-8"....

Atmospheric Science Program at UW-Madison

Intern at NBC26 in Green Bay

Certified skywarn spotter

Head forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org 

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