Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 00z Euro not a favorable track for N IL...takes SLP right over S Lake Michigan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 06z NAM north with Sat clipper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Might even see a band of low warning snows if that .25+ verifies with ratios being 20:1 or higher in some of those locations. High only 20 Sat. Double that roughly 5-8 inches. Not to concern yet here but nice stripe of 6+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 06z GFS still south and good for far NE IL..This thing is very impressive for clipper and it closes off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 LOT: FAST ON THE HEELS OF CLIPPER CINCO (MORE ACCURATELY IT WOULD BECONSIDERED A MANITOBA MAULER GIVEN IT`S ORIGINS IN MANITOBA....BUTFOR THE SAKE OF OUR CLIPPER COUNT WE`LL LUMP SEIS IN WITH THECLIPPERS!) IS NONE OTHER THAN CLIPPER SEIS WHICH SHOULD BE DIVINGSOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAYNIGHT. SMALL WINDOW COULD EXIST FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF FRIDAYNIGHT...BUT WITH STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SEIS ANDCLOUD COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAYNIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND MORE VIGOROUS WITH SEISOVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND ITS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THATTHIS SYSTEM WILL LAY DOWN A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE LEFT OFITS TRACK. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THIS FELLA IN THE LATESTMODELS...INCLUDING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIZABLE DENDRITIC GROWTHZONE IT`S NOT HARD TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WHERE SEIS LAYS DOWN ANARROW SWATH OF LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH A PERIOD OFHEAVY SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION ATTHIS POINT IS WHERE IT WILL TRACK. WE ARE STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND A ITWOULD BE MORE SURPRISING IF MODELS DON`T BOUNCE AROUND THAN IF THEYDO...SO IT WOULD BE STUPID TO START TALKING ABOUT SPECIFICS WITHREGARDS TO WHO STANDS TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. TO USE THE ANALOGY OFTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY WITHHURRICANES...OUR CWA WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE CONE...IF NOT SMACKDAB IN THE MIDDLE. DO PLAN TO START RAMPING THINGS UP IN THE HWO ANDWX STORY IN THE HOPES THAT SUCH RHETORIC WILL CONVINCE THE MODELS TOSHIFT THE TRACK AWAY FROM OUR AREA! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 i wish DMX would have fun afd's to read like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z NAM looks better for far NE IL. Just slightly weaker overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I like living near the border of 2 CWAs. It's fun to read both Green Bay and La Crosse to look for differences. NWS LaCrosse FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE AREAS WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. WITH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 20 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL PICK UP A 3 TO 6 INCH BAND OF SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Gonna miss me to the northeast. man this has been a tough winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Some showers passing through the area. Had nice snowfall for about 30 minutes. Now just very light snowfall. Accumulated a little bit, though. Should see off and on showers here for a little bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z GFS still taking a good track for N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's still showing some decent snow around here, but a tad west would be better. Doesn't seem to want to budge, though. Hoping I get lucky on it and do better than I'm supposed to, but I'd happy take 1-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 There's going to be a pretty sharp cut off to the south and west. Going to come down to the wire with this one I think. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Getting some intense snow showers ATM, some pretty fat flakes coming down with the heavier bursts. Only a dusting down but if these snow showers continue throughout the day we could squeeze 0.5"-1". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 seems like there is more spread in the models this morning than there was last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Mike Hammernick going with 2-4" but that was on the lower end of the models for N IL...he said some models substantially higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Wave for Saturday, just moving onshore now. 18z runs should have the complete data for it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z RGEM developing a Meso Low feature around the southern tip of Lake Michigan Friday night...could enhance snowfall lakeside counties... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I would think 00z runs will be the ones to look for...06z/18z runs don't take into account balloon network data... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z RGEM developing a Meso Low feature around the southern tip of Lake Michigan Friday night...could enhance snowfall lakeside counties...I think we're good for a widespread 3-5 inches with isolated higher amounts. It's going to be interesting if models get a bit stronger as this gets closer. If they do I can see LOT going with a Winter Storm Warning for some areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Go ggem! Lol. Still gives me hope with a further west track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree Scott, that's what happened with the last Clipper. Approx 36 hours before the event it was looking more and more impressive. However, if it intensifies stronger it can veer more on an easterly track unless it tracks near IA/IL border. Signs pointing to a potent little Clipper. The heaviest band of snow will be very narrow so it will take the perfect track to hit N IL with highest amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Uk in agreement with ggem as well. Quite the model spread still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS emsebles locked into almost identical tracks a good bit west of the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Without a doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro Chicago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Heavy heavy snow right now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 EURO a step in the right direction to the west. 0z runs tonight could tell the story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WI AOS Student Tanner Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I agree Scott, that's what happened with the last Clipper. Approx 36 hours before the event it was looking more and more impressive. However, if it intensifies stronger it can veer more on an easterly track unless it tracks near IA/IL border. Signs pointing to a potent little Clipper. The heaviest band of snow will be very narrow so it will take the perfect track to hit N IL with highest amounts. One of my favorite synoptic rules I've learned...If a storm comes in stronger it will veer to its left. The past storm is a perfect example. The low was forecasted near the WI/IL border, ended up 75-100 miles north, and dropped a foot of snow, not 5-8".... Quote Atmospheric Science Program at UW-MadisonIntern at NBC26 in Green BayCertified skywarn spotterHead forecaster and editor at www.midwestweather.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Totally forgot I was gonna be in South Beloit this weekend, so I'm actually alright with this being a little further east. Of course, I want home to get some snow too so we can keep a good snow depth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z NAM holds its track but showing signs of weakening as it heads SE...I'd say 2-4" at most for N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 18z NAM holds its track but showing signs of weakening as it heads SE...I'd say 2-4" at most for N IL...What are ratios supposed to be like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Maybe 15:1 or less...seems a tad warmer this run. Starts off with temps in 10's, then warm into lower/mid 20's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The bigger question is how deep will the dendritic growth zone be. If it is quite deep then we could be looking at a fairly decent amount of snow out of this clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Solid 3-6 inch band looks good. LOT still calling several inches far NE IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hi Guys, looking forward to contributing to the board. I live in Geneva, IL. I like the set up for Saturday think there will be a good swath of 3-5 inches in NE-IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hi Guys, looking forward to contributing to the board. I live in Geneva, IL. I like the set up for Saturday think there will be a good swath of 3-5 inches in NE-IL.Welcome to the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Getting some moderate snow ATM, prob sitting at 0.3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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