Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.

[DominicR]

00z GFS is better over here a bit furthur NE of NAM. Still plenty of time to watch this..

[Geos]

Dominic beat me to it.

 

If it's 3", that'll be alright too. 1-4" seems reasonable with this system.

[Tom]

00z RGEM...

[DominicR]

Ah D**n this is not turning into what looked like a solid advisory or even low warning snow yesterday. Still plenty of time to keep an eye on it..I hope we can squeeze 2-3 inches here.

[DanTheMan]

The local weatherman just gave Rockford .6 inches. This is using the latest guidance (not sure what model). Earlier this evening we were 2-4". To be honest, it makes me sad. The only sliver of hope is it is still early, things can still change. 

[Grizzcoat]

3+" today in DSM area with TSSN. throw in 30mph winds with gusts to 55mph=   awesomeness !!!!

Local TV Weather guys says it's been a long winter.  ???   Short memory these people have.

[East Dubzz]

GEM Snowfall:

[DominicR]

The local weatherman just gave Rockford .6 inches. This is using the latest guidance (not sure what model). Earlier this evening we were 2-4". To be honest, it makes me sad. The only sliver of hope is it is still early, things can still change. 

 

Welcome! and I agree. It seems like models trending weaker and furthur SW.

[DominicR]

GEM Snowfall:

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014011700/east/cmc_snow_acc_east_14.png

 

Hey that sweet 3-4 inches for C IL.

[Geos]

Last snowfall map MKX put out.

 

[Tom]

MKE always hyping totals...wondering if that is an old map posted this afternoon.  LOT will adjust totals tonight I'm thinking.

[East Dubzz]

It's 5 degrees in Dubuque right now. That's pretty cold considering there is a 15 mph wind and an overcast.

[Tom]

00z Euro weak run...but more widespread with precip...weakens as it heads into IL...

 

 

 

[Sciascia]

Perhaps this is just a run-of-the-mill clipper. Nothing more, nothing less.

[FV-Mike]

LOT still going with 2-4 with potential more. Nice write up in the AFD.

[Madtown]

I am very interested to see if this trends back a little stronger today, That would make the last 3 systems were predicted strong further north, then went a little weaker 2 days out and further south, and finally the day before started going back north . Just like patterns and thought I would share.

[Geos]

MKX lowered amounts.

 

 

WGN is saying 2-4" still.

[Niko]

This clipper for Sat needs to go further north, or else I am getting zilch. Hopefully it does.

[Geos]

NAM's showing a miss here for the most part.

 

 

[gosaints]

best snows look to be just to our west now

[Hawkeye]

best snows look to be just to our west now

 

And to my east.  The general consensus now appears to be favorable for places like Decorah/Dubuque/Clinton/Freeport/Sterling.  Cedar Rapids should get something, but we'll be on the warmer sw edge where the ratios will be lower.

[Tom]

12z RGEM...some of the models are showing a thing stripe of .30qpf now indicating what LOT has mentioned in their Disco.  I think this system is going to be a nowcast as it will be to hard to predict where this heavier band of 5-6" of snow may set up.  I think ORD is good to get 2-3".  It seems the Clipper wants to pivot east once it hits IL so that will be important as to how much NE IL receives from this Clipper.

 

[East Dubzz]

DVN mentions ratios of possibly 18-20:1 up towards Dubuque. Don't know if they will end up being that high, I'm thinking more like 15-18:1.

[Tom]

That band of snow in S/SE WI looking good as it is pivoting SE...RGEM had a good handle on this band and seems like there is some LehS going on.  Hoping to get in on that band later this afternoon/evening.

[james1976]

its a clipper so who knows whats gonna happen, lol

[Geos]

Grids near the lake in WI are down to 1-2" now. Probably see one good band of snow from this system to the west for those lucky enough to get under it.

 

12z GFS

 

[Snowshoe]

I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east.

 

Looks like my hunch was wrong.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

[Tony]

Euro looks to spit out about 2"-4" depending on ratios. Track will wobble a little here n there but a couple inches looks good for now

[Yerf]

Hi. new to the board. WGN RPM had 3.7 for aurora, 4.1 for morris and less amounts north east of Kane County

[Tom]

Anyone have the SREF's for ORD???

[Tony]

The coverage area on this clipper is such that any small wobble either way can make a huge difference on who ends up with the most qpf.

[gosaints]

mean is for ord .2.5 many show nothing a few near 5 inches

[Niko]

If this baby can jog a little bit to the north, I am in business.

[Niko]

ITS COMING AGAIN FOLKS!!!

 

 

[Scott26]

ITS COMING AGAIN FOLKS!!!

 

 

lol this is great.

[gosaints]

ha the NAM is going way left... FLurries Here?

[jaster220]

The coverage area on this clipper is such that any small wobble either way can make a huge difference on who ends up with the most qpf.

 

"the most" yes, but quite a nice area will end up getting some action on this one still.

 

If this baby can jog a little bit to the north, I am in business.

 

I'm pulling for ya Nikos. Per this future map from Intellicast, they apparently feel the same.

 

Showing a lot more love to S Mich in general.

 

Remember, it ain't over til its over..

 

 

[Tom]

18z NAM...I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge with this Clipper.  Feel good that 2" is probably what I'll end up with.

 

[Tom]

Some light snow moving into NE IL...maybe pick up 0.5-1.0"...