Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z NAM...I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge with this Clipper. Feel good that 2" is probably what I'll end up with.I agree with you Tom, northern edge looks good especially since the last couple model runs have not shifted any further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Working south in Sandwich ,il and it has been snowing rather nicely for the last 30mins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Iowa gets their wish! NWS Green Bay MORE COLD. LESS SNOW.STABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM WL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUTTHE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND...WITH A RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND ADOWNSTREAM TROF MID-CONTINENT. THE MAIN VARIABLE WL BE AMPLITUDE.THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE THAN WHATWE WERE EXPECTING A FEW DAYS AGO. THAT HAS PUT THE FCST AREA ALITTLE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR...MEANING TEMPS WL BE MORECONSISTENTLY BLO NORMAL. IT ALSO MEANS THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOWPRODUCING DISTURBANCES WL PASS S OF THE AREA...SO THERE WL BE ALITTLE LESS SNOWFALL THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE AMPLITUDE TO THE PATTERN NOW...THEOVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS IS THAT THERE WL BECONSIDERABLE ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD ANDBEYOND. IF THAT OCCURS...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD WAVE IS LIKELYNEXT WEEKEND. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Iowa gets their wish! NWS Green BayThe main band of snow always seemed south of Greenbay anyway from looking at the earlier models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Pressure falls up north look good. Although I won't be home anyway to enjoy it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Radar is looking pretty decent in WI and showing some banding developing in E WI and now in NE IL. RGEM really picked up on this happening. Could lay down more than 1" in spots through the evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 DVN throws out advisory. Doesn't go in Stephenson county, though. Says closer to 1-2" in that county. Also said they could see it shifting further SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I read that in Des Moines there was thunder and lighting last night that included a Blizzard Warning during the evening rush hour yesterday. Joe D'Aleo mentioned in his blog today on Wx Bell that this similar event is compared to what a squall line that has a bow echo effect during a thunderstorm in the summer time. Pretty cool stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Grids are down to an inch or less now up this way. Only 50-60% chance of snow on Saturday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I read that in Des Moines there was thunder and lighting last night that included a Blizzard Warning during the evening rush hour yesterday. Joe D'Aleo mentioned in his blog today on Wx Bell that this similar event is compared to what a squall line that has a bow echo effect during a thunderstorm in the summer time. Pretty cool stuff. Whatever happened it must have been crazy. By brother-in-law lives in Des Moines and his usual 30min commute home was 2 hours. Interstate 80 was closed for good period of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z GFS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like this will be a SW suburb event for Chicago...I'm hoping to squeeze 2" so that can atleast cover any grassy areas showing up and put some fresh snow down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 yeah-- the event y-day here in DSM was nuts. 3"+ hourly snowfall rates for about 40 minutes right during the heart of rush hour. Our "lake effect" ) Tomorrow event looking somewhat similar-- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA417 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...ISSUED AT 416 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREALATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSSTHE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT. BAND OF SNOWWILL DEVELOP WITH IN THE AREA OF WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION GENERALLYACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ARCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OFLIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY BAND AND DROPINTO CENTRAL IOWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERYCOMPLEX SYSTEM AND HEADLINES DECISIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EASTSIDE WILL HAVE THE MOST SNOW WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES AND MARGINALADVISORY CRITERIA. FARTHER WEST...VERY STRONG WINDS AREANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE SFC LOW BUT LESS SNOW ISEXPECTED IN THAT REGION OVERALL HOWEVER SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERSARE EVIDENT WITHIN THIS REGION. POSSIBLE AGAIN TO GET ENHANCEDSNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. THESEREGIONS COMBINED WITH THE WIND COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEARWHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WAS TEMPTED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARDWATCH WITHIN THE HIGHEST THREAT REGION BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO STICKWITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT COULD BE UPGRADED IF NEEDED.MIXED LAYER WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL COMBINED WITH A STRONG PRESSURERISE COUPLET WILL CRANK UP THE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD OVER THEWEST. FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...STAYED WITH A WIND ADVISORYWITH LESS SNOW. POSSIBLE MAY APPROACH A FEW GUSTS NEW 58 MPH BYTHE AFTERNOON. IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BESTEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm still betting this will move a little farther north as some of these other clippers have done in the past. Will have to watch pressure falls as the night goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 WWA here in Bureau County! Saying 3-5 tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 So the local Mets said 1 inch and i got 3-4 yesterday. For this next clipper (saturday night) they are saying a flurry, should i expect and inch? LOL SEMI forecast please =) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 im in WWA for 2-4"! nice. so we'll see how it pans out. snow already breaking out in Dakotas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 nice write up from DMX. potential blizzard warning, eh? wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 This one wave tonight could be an over-achiever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 +1 Tony, nice fat flakes coming down. Very fluffy snow, I would say snow ratios are prob 20:1 with this. I'm getting close to 0.5" already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 +1 Tony, nice fat flakes coming down. Very fluffy snow, I would say snow ratios are prob 20:1 with this. I'm getting close to 0.5" already. Yup, this will definitely be a overachiever. Still plenty of snow that is still in Wisconsin moving south. I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated 2 inch amounts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I just went outside and this snow has to be 30:1 ratio's..its fluffier than Lake Effect Snow. Should continue through 10:00pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 The snow coming down here tonight is not accumulating rapidly. Pretty to look at though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 has snowed all day maybe 1 to 1.5" gorgeous though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 My snow cover currently with yesterdays and previous snows is now 7inches or so. Not bad. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah it's coating the ground pretty nicely. Light snow but flakes are pretty decent size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 seems the energy from DSM y-day moved into OHIO today--- Gotta love it!!KYNG 172319Z 23013G22KT 1/4SM +TSSNPL VV008 00/M02 A2979 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 TSB07PLB19 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0003 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 HRRR way fast--http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014011721/t2/1ref_t2sfc_f11.png Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 HRRR... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 HRRR very slightly west?? Looks pretty good though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Actually, it starts pivoting eastward towards the end of the run. I think E IA will do well with this Clipper. Newest run through 4:00am showing convective nature to this system. Some juicy totals showing up in MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 1.0" so far here today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 I work in Orfordville WI, WSW of Janesville. It started snowing there about 8:15 a.m. Continued with varying inteneity through 5 p.m. when I left. There was slightly more then 2 very fluffy inches when I left. Quote Signature here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 00z NAM a little better for NE IL...slight shift east...seems like it pivots earlier to the east which brings the heavier precip farther east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 NAM looks more solid and tad north with narrow swath of snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Precip really exploding in MN/ND right now...20-25DBZ's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 Precip really exploding in MN/ND right now...20-25DBZ's Yeah it looks pretty solid so far. Hope that band will sweep into Chicago or this gonna miss sharply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's all gonna come down to when this starts to pivot eastward. Hang in there guys on the northern end, I think we will see some surprises. Southern end is a really sharp cut off. Like I said, I like my chances on the northern side of this Clipper. Looks good on radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2014 Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 A little over 1" here...you can see how fluffy this snow is...in fact, you can still see the patio deck through 1" of snow on the ground. Goes to show you how transparent the snow is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 1.0" here fell tonight. Can't even get the ratio really, but I can guarantee it's over 40:1. Some of the driest snow I've ever seen. Some pictures of the dendrites. My best attempts at it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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