Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.

[gosaints]

Nam a bit of an outlier now

[Tom]

18z GFS shifted way west now...snows in E IA now.  Bud & EastDubzz are going to be clickin' their heals...

[DominicR]

Very ugly.

[Tom]

18z GFS Precip...remember, these runs don't have balloon network data so some wobbling....

 

[DominicR]

Hi Guys, looking forward to contributing to the board.  I live in Geneva, IL. I like the set up for Saturday think there will be a good swath of 3-5 inches in NE-IL.

 

Welcome to the board

[Snowshoe]

18z GFS Precip...remember, these runs don't have balloon network data so some wobbling....

 

I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east.

[DominicR]

I suspect the 0z runs to shift back east.

 

GFS much weaker and south. NAM gonna win again?

[Tom]

This is such a narrow band of snow that if you get under it, consider yourself lucky!  LOL

[gosaints]

Nam very well could but the gfs does have support from ukie

[Geos]

Snow this afternoon is doing nothing but wetting the ground. Little snow stuck on the trees, but that's it.

[DominicR]

Nam very well could but the gfs does have support from ukie

 

[gosaints]

Anything is on the table. Hate the drying trend though

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS shifted way west now...snows in E IA now. Bud & EastDubzz are going to be clickin' their heals...

It could be a win-win situation for me this weekend. I'm in South Beloit this weekend, so if it's further east i would see more snow, and if it's further west it's better for the snow pack back home.

[Sciascia]

LOT has put an opening number in my grid. 3-5"

[Niko]

WOW...I ended up with 2.5 inches and still snowing likely. Where did this come from??..Forecasters were forecasting snowshowers today with no accumulations.

[The Snowman]

Point & Click also 3-5"  here.

[DominicR]

WGN model average 4 inches N IL/S WI.

[Meichel]

My point/click at 3-5".

[Sciascia]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow_Fcst.png

[Tom]

Nice map, looks like its showing some LehS for eastern Cook/Lake county...

[DominicR]

Yeah but if GFS wins will lucky to get 1-2 inches here.

[bud2380]

Uk, GGEM, and now GFS all would bring accumulating snow to eastern Iowa.  DVN had a nice write up about the storm and talking about a SW trend with the track.

 

 

 

SAT-SAT NGT... CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. ENERGY CENTER ITSELF IN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS AFTN AND VISUALLY APPEARS STRONGER THAN MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEMS MAY BE DAMPENING ENERGY TOO MUCH
PER SATL IMAGERY. STRENGTH TO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON TRACK
AND LOCATION OF AMOUNTS AS STRONGER SYSTEM TO DIG FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM
PER MODEL RUN TO RUN COMPARISON...WITH SLIGHT SOUTHWEST
SHIFT NOTED WITH 12Z RUN TO WHERE SFC LOW TRACK INTO NORTHEAST
IA MIDDAY CLOSE TO 12Z 12 MEMBER ENSEMBLE WHICH IS FAIRLY
CLUSTERED AROUND KDBQ-KCWI ON SURFACE LOW AT 18Z SAT. OF
INTEREST IS PREVIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS HAD SOME MEMBERS WITH
LOW INTO WI BUT NOT ANYMORE WITH 12Z RUN... WHICH SUGGESTIVE
OF ANY DELTA TO TRACK WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALSO
SUPPORTED BY SATL TRENDS. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE HI-RES
ECMWF WHICH WENT NORTHEAST WITH TRACK PAST FEW RUNS HAS COME
BACK SOUTHWEST BY FEW HUNDRED MILES SUGGESTING ON TO THE
IDEA OF MORE SOUTHWEST TRACK AND HAVE TO THINK POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR SYSTEM TO PASS CLOSE QUAD CITIES AND POSSIBLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE BEGUN SOUTHWEST SHIFT WITH EXPANSION AND
INCREASE IN POPS TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY FROM
QUAD CITIES N/E. WHY IS TRACK SO CRITICAL IS BECAUSE THE BULK
OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS... HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
AMERICAN MODELS AND UKMET SHOWING AROUND 0.25 INCH OF QPF AS
MODEL LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOWN TO BE AROUND THAT TO
CLOSE TO 0.3 INCH... AWFULLY DARN EFFICIENT! I PREFER ABOUT
70-80 PERCENT OF THAT BASED ON FORCING AND SPEED OF SYSTEM WHICH
EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 0.15-0.17 MAX QPF. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
COULD BE RATHER HIGH FOR A TIME AT AROUND 18-20:1 WITH POTENTIAL
OF DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BUT OVERALL MOSTLY IN RANGE OF
14-16:1... THUS BASED ON QPF EQUATES TO GENERALLY 1-3 INCH ACCUMS.

 

[Geos]

Somehow managed 0.5" today.

More snow moving into the area.

 

 

[ChiTownWeather]

Radar just lit up in northeast IL. Snowing at a moderate to heavy pace with large flakes. Real nice to see a fresh coating snow finally on the streets and driveways

[Geos]

SN currently here.

[DominicR]

Radar just lit up in northeast IL. Snowing at a moderate to heavy pace with large flakes. Real nice to see a fresh coating snow finally on the streets and driveways

 

Same here. Snowing pretty nicely. A good coating so far.

[Tom]

Nice Fat flakes with this surprise band in NE IL...certainly whitened up the scene and roads while I was driving.  Getting slick out there, temps crashing now in the mid 20's.  Probably going to end up with 0.5-0.75" right about what the models were forecasting.

[DominicR]

Kenohsa/Racine, WI probably gonna get a inch with that heavy band moving in north.

[DominicR]

Impressive circulation with this Alberta Clipper. Solid embedded bands of heavy whip lash snow across Lakes/Ohio Valley atm.

[james1976]

One of my favorite synoptic rules I've learned...If a storm comes in stronger it will veer to its left. The past storm is a perfect example. The low was forecasted near the WI/IL border, ended up 75-100 miles north, and dropped a foot of snow, not 5-8"....

Actually DVN is saying if the system ends up being stronger it will go more SW.

[East Dubzz]

Actually DVN is saying if the system ends up being stronger it will go more SW.

West is to the left. Lol.

[Scott26]

West is to the left. Lol.

0Z NAM way SW and a complete whiff for NE IL. Looks like the Iowa people may get their wish.

[Geos]

Managed 0.7" with this system.

[Tom]

00z NAM precip...nice thin strip of .30qpf...

 

[DominicR]

NAM shafts MKE/ORD but does have a nice stripe of 3-5 inches from La Cross to Peoria, IL.

[DominicR]

Pretty heavy 3hr period of snow pounds SE MN/W IL..

 

 

[Geos]

Looks like the new data suggests a weaker system.

 

[Tom]

Anyone from E IA to NE IL is still in the game...its such a thin stripe of accumulating snow that a 50 mile shift either way is still possible 36hours out.

[East Dubzz]

Whenever a clipper is coming through, you have to remember that it's a clipper. They typically aren't the biggest snow makers ever. You really have to wait until the day before to get a realistic view on the amounts.

[james1976]

West is to the left. Lol.

not when its heading to the SE