Clipper-like Systems for January 16th-19th.

[Tony]

18z NAM...I'd rather be on the northern edge than the southern edge with this Clipper.  Feel good that 2" is probably what I'll end up with.

I agree with you Tom, northern edge looks good especially since the last couple model runs have not shifted any further south

[FV-Mike]

Working south in Sandwich ,il and it has been snowing rather nicely for the last 30mins

[Snowshoe]

Iowa gets their wish!

 

NWS Green Bay

 

 

 

MORE COLD. LESS SNOW.

STABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INVOF NOAM WL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT
THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND...WITH A RIDGE NR THE WEST COAST AND A
DOWNSTREAM TROF MID-CONTINENT. THE MAIN VARIABLE WL BE AMPLITUDE.
THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE THAN WHAT
WE WERE EXPECTING A FEW DAYS AGO. THAT HAS PUT THE FCST AREA A
LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR...MEANING TEMPS WL BE MORE
CONSISTENTLY BLO NORMAL. IT ALSO MEANS THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW
PRODUCING DISTURBANCES WL PASS S OF THE AREA...SO THERE WL BE A
LITTLE LESS SNOWFALL THAN EARLIER EXPECTED.

DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE AMPLITUDE TO THE PATTERN NOW...THE
OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS IS THAT THERE WL BE
CONSIDERABLE ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. IF THAT OCCURS...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD WAVE IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEKEND.

[Tony]

Iowa gets their wish!

 

NWS Green Bay

The main band of snow always seemed south of Greenbay anyway from looking at the earlier models.

[East Dubzz]

Pressure falls up north look good. Although I won't be home anyway to enjoy it.

[Tom]

Radar is looking pretty decent in WI and showing some banding developing in E WI and now in NE IL.  RGEM really picked up on this happening.  Could lay down more than 1" in spots through the evening.

[East Dubzz]

DVN throws out advisory. Doesn't go in Stephenson county, though. Says closer to 1-2" in that county. Also said they could see it shifting further SE.

[Tom]

I read that in Des Moines there was thunder and lighting last night that included a Blizzard Warning during the evening rush hour yesterday.  Joe D'Aleo mentioned in his blog today on Wx Bell that this similar event is compared to what a squall line that has a bow echo effect during a thunderstorm in the summer time.  Pretty cool stuff.

[Geos]

Grids are down to an inch or less now up this way. Only 50-60% chance of snow on Saturday.

[FV-Mike]

I read that in Des Moines there was thunder and lighting last night that included a Blizzard Warning during the evening rush hour yesterday.  Joe D'Aleo mentioned in his blog today on Wx Bell that this similar event is compared to what a squall line that has a bow echo effect during a thunderstorm in the summer time.  Pretty cool stuff.

 

Whatever happened it must have been crazy. By brother-in-law lives in Des Moines and his usual 30min commute home was 2 hours. Interstate 80 was closed for good period of time.

[Geos]

18z GFS

 

[Tom]

Looks like this will be a SW suburb event for Chicago...I'm hoping to squeeze 2" so that can atleast cover any grassy areas showing up and put some fresh snow down.

[Grizzcoat]

yeah-- the event y-day here in DSM was nuts. 3"+  hourly snowfall rates for about 40 minutes right during the heart of rush hour.  Our "lake effect" )

 

Tomorrow event looking somewhat similar-- NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2014

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT. BAND OF SNOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH IN THE AREA OF WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION GENERALLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ARCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY BAND AND DROP
INTO CENTRAL IOWA SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY
COMPLEX SYSTEM AND HEADLINES DECISIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EAST
SIDE WILL HAVE THE MOST SNOW WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES AND MARGINAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA. FARTHER WEST...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE SFC LOW BUT LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OVERALL HOWEVER SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THIS REGION. POSSIBLE AGAIN TO GET ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS. THESE
REGIONS COMBINED WITH THE WIND COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WAS TEMPTED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH WITHIN THE HIGHEST THREAT REGION BUT FOR NOW OPTED TO STICK
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT COULD BE UPGRADED IF NEEDED.
MIXED LAYER WINDS NEAR 50 KTS WILL COMBINED WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
RISE COUPLET WILL CRANK UP THE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD OVER THE
WEST. FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...STAYED WITH A WIND ADVISORY
WITH LESS SNOW. POSSIBLE MAY APPROACH A FEW GUSTS NEW 58 MPH BY
THE AFTERNOON. IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY TO FALLING THROUGH THE DAY.

[Tony]

I'm still betting this will move a little farther north as some of these other clippers have done in the past. Will have to watch pressure falls as the night goes on.

[snowman1]

WWA here in Bureau County! Saying 3-5 tomorrow.

[MarcusBeier]

So the local Mets said 1 inch and i got 3-4 yesterday. For this next clipper (saturday night) they are saying a flurry, should i expect and inch? LOL   SEMI forecast please =)

[james1976]

im in WWA for 2-4"! nice. so we'll see how it pans out. snow already breaking out in Dakotas.

[james1976]

nice write up from DMX. potential blizzard warning, eh? wow

[Tony]

This one wave tonight could be an over-achiever

[Tom]

+1 Tony, nice fat flakes coming down.  Very fluffy snow, I would say snow ratios are prob 20:1 with this.  I'm getting close to 0.5" already. 

[Scott26]

+1 Tony, nice fat flakes coming down.  Very fluffy snow, I would say snow ratios are prob 20:1 with this.  I'm getting close to 0.5" already. 

Yup, this will definitely be a overachiever. Still plenty of snow that is still in Wisconsin moving south. I wouldn't be surprised to see isolated 2 inch amounts.

[Tom]

I just went outside and this snow has to be 30:1 ratio's..its fluffier than Lake Effect Snow.  Should continue through 10:00pm.

[Geos]

The snow coming down here tonight is not accumulating rapidly. Pretty to look at though.

[Madtown]

has snowed all day maybe 1 to 1.5" gorgeous though

[Niko]

My snow cover currently with yesterdays and previous snows is now 7inches or so. Not bad.

[DominicR]

Yeah it's coating the ground pretty nicely. Light snow but flakes are pretty decent size.

[Grizzcoat]

seems the energy from DSM y-day moved into OHIO today--- Gotta love it!!

KYNG 172319Z 23013G22KT 1/4SM +TSSNPL VV008 00/M02 A2979 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 TSB07PLB19 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD MOV NE P0003

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR way fast--http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014011721/t2/1ref_t2sfc_f11.png

[Tom]

HRRR...

 

[East Dubzz]

HRRR very slightly west?? Looks pretty good though!

[Tom]

Actually, it starts pivoting eastward towards the end of the run.  I think E IA will do well with this Clipper.  Newest run through 4:00am showing convective nature to this system.  Some juicy totals showing up in MN...

 

[Geos]

1.0" so far here today.

[DanTheMan]

I work in Orfordville WI,  WSW of Janesville. It started snowing there about 8:15 a.m. Continued with varying inteneity through 5 p.m. when I left.  There was slightly more then 2 very fluffy inches when I left.

[Tom]

00z NAM a little better for NE IL...slight shift east...seems like it pivots earlier to the east which brings the heavier precip farther east.

 

 

[DominicR]

NAM looks more solid and tad north with narrow swath of snow...

[Tom]

Precip really exploding in MN/ND right now...20-25DBZ's

[DominicR]

Precip really exploding in MN/ND right now...20-25DBZ's

 

Yeah it looks pretty solid so far. Hope that band will sweep into Chicago or this gonna miss sharply.

[Tom]

It's all gonna come down to when this starts to pivot eastward.  Hang in there guys on the northern end, I think we will see some surprises.  Southern end is a really sharp cut off.  Like I said, I like my chances on the northern side of this Clipper.  Looks good on radar.

[Tom]

A little over 1" here...you can see how fluffy this snow is...in fact, you can still see the patio deck through 1" of snow on the ground.  Goes to show you how transparent the snow is.

 

[Geos]

1.0" here fell tonight. Can't even get the ratio really, but I can guarantee it's over 40:1. Some of the driest snow I've ever seen.

 

Some pictures of the dendrites. My best attempts at it.