April 24-29 Multi Day Central and Southern Plains Severe Weather Outbreak

[Black Hole]

A multi day severe weather outbreak will occur across the southern and central Plains beginning as soon as Wednesday. Persistent troughing west of the area will encourage warm and moist southerly flow with repeated rounds of dry line convection possible. Forecast parameters and pattern recognition show obvious severe potential, potentially significantly severe. 

It always comes down to the details, but we will have multiple chances for something. For my part of the country, I suspect Friday-Sunday will be our main window but time will tell. 

[Black Hole]

From Michael Ventrice using the GFS

[Timmy Supercell]

I hope some of those clusters/QLCS's go into eastern KY. The last one just about died going over I-75.

Not asking for a 4/2 repeat as that one was slightly scary. But....

[Clinton]

39 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

From Michael Ventrice using the GFS

That day 5 looks intense for mby.  Hope the timing works out so the storms don't fall apart as they get here and redevelop to my east.

[Andie]

Looks like we’ll get wet!   
Actually, it’s looking more like our usual spring…damp and stormy!

[Black Hole]

55 minutes ago, Andie said:

Looks like we’ll get wet!   
Actually, it’s looking more like our usual spring…damp and stormy!

Last spring was boring and dry and this was has shaped up similarly so far, but that looks to change finally! I don't need my house blown away, but a good multi day soaker would really help. 

[Andie]

I think we may have that chance coming.  

[Clinton]

This is the part of the pattern that can put a dent in the ongoing drought and will likely produce alot of damaging storms.  Here's some thought from Gary Lezak as this is by far the most exciting stretch of weather in this years pattern and he thinks 3-5 inches of rain over the next 10 day is certainly possible for the KC area.

Weather 2020

Well, here we are almost 45-days after the strongest and most deadly severe weather outbreak in this year's LRC, March 12-14, and around 135 days after the other big winter outbreak in this part of the LRC, December 9th.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Do you remember this day in the previous cycle? 3 people were killed in western Ohio. This part of the pattern is cycling back through, one of our signature long-range predictions, in the next six days! If you know the LRC, then you know it is due around 4/28

 

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

We drove to the Royals Orioles game on Sunday (go O's!).  And there was quite few dry areas  between here and kc.. much wetter here thankfully.  But looks like we all get in on it soon!

[Black Hole]

Here is the latest CSU ML severe forecast for the next 6 days. 

[Naptownwx]

15 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is the part of the pattern that can put a dent in the ongoing drought and will likely produce alot of damaging storms.  Here's some thought from Gary Lezak as this is by far the most exciting stretch of weather in this years pattern and he thinks 3-5 inches of rain over the next 10 day is certainly possible for the KC area.

Weather 2020

Well, here we are almost 45-days after the strongest and most deadly severe weather outbreak in this year's LRC, March 12-14, and around 135 days after the other big winter outbreak in this part of the LRC, December 9th.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Do you remember this day in the previous cycle? 3 people were killed in western Ohio. This part of the pattern is cycling back through, one of our signature long-range predictions, in the next six days! If you know the LRC, then you know it is due around 4/28

 

 

 

Yikes! Hopefully nothing like that again

[Black Hole]

This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch. 

[Naptownwx]

22 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch. 

 

[Iceresistance]

Sorry for inactivity here, but I am aware of this

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

This is probably going to be a memorable outbreak for some. Everything is coming together for some big days. SPC just updated their day 3 outlook to add an enhanced. I suspect we get a moderate or two during this stretch. 

And I hope that we don't get a High

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

And I hope that we don't get a High

I know SPC pretty much will only do that for big tornado days. I don't necessary see anything to suggest a high end tornado outbreak just yet, but it's not out of the question either. Don't get me wrong, there will be tornadoes, I'm just not sold on the worst of the worst just yet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

23 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is the part of the pattern that can put a dent in the ongoing drought and will likely produce alot of damaging storms.  Here's some thought from Gary Lezak as this is by far the most exciting stretch of weather in this years pattern and he thinks 3-5 inches of rain over the next 10 day is certainly possible for the KC area.

Weather 2020

Well, here we are almost 45-days after the strongest and most deadly severe weather outbreak in this year's LRC, March 12-14, and around 135 days after the other big winter outbreak in this part of the LRC, December 9th.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

Do you remember this day in the previous cycle? 3 people were killed in western Ohio. This part of the pattern is cycling back through, one of our signature long-range predictions, in the next six days! If you know the LRC, then you know it is due around 4/28

 

 

 

Pi-Day event had its interesting parts. Before the main bout of supercells in IN/OH, there was one lonely supercell that travelled from near Cincinatti all the way to my vicinity a few hours prior, with nothing else picking up on JKL radar around that time. 

Then all the later night storms developed into an MCS hitting me around 2am.

Overall the Feb 28 and April 2 events gave me much more of a uh-oh feeling in the gut. Pi-Day had a ton of large hailers, and a few storms that happened to hold together a stronger tornado. Not to say 3/14 wasn't a good one though, Ohio was a surprise during that one as they weren't exactly bullzeyed at first.

[Clinton]

Heavy rain and severe weather looking more likely for mby Thursday- Sunday.  Friday and Saturday looking like the best bet for severe weather in my area.  Sunday will likely be the biggest day of this event for severe weather but the action will likely be to my east.

  EAX showing more rain in that time span than I've had this year to date.

[Clinton]

0z models all bullish on rainfall totals for just about everyone.  

WPC forecast

[Andie]

13 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

And I hope that we don't get a High

Oh please not yet.  

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z models all bullish on rainfall totals for just about everyone.  

WPC forecast

Smack Dab in the grow zone regions of the Heartland of our Great Nation...perfect!

[Clinton]

[Bryan1117]

14 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z models all bullish on rainfall totals for just about everyone.  

WPC forecast

Wow it’s amazing how the models are picking up on another “dry slot” over east central Nebraska. The models must be finally catching on that it’s been really difficult lately to get decent rainfall or storms around here anymore haha… I threw those models showing 2-4 inches here this weekend out a couple days ago.

[Clinton]

Its been tough to get rain here also, I'm under 3 inches for the year.  Hopefully we all will get some over the next 4 days.

[gabel23]

20 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Wow it’s amazing how the models are picking up on another “dry slot” over east central Nebraska. The models must be finally catching on that it’s been really difficult lately to get decent rainfall or storms around here anymore haha… I threw those models showing 2-4 inches here this weekend out a couple days ago.

Yeah it’s looking like we will continue being the bullseye for low pressure systems and dry slot us. So frustrating. 

[Clinton]

Big time storms in the KC area and mby Saturday evening.  Dangerous setup hopefully everyone stays safe.

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist 

SATURDAY looks like a major #tornado outbreak across much of the southern and central Great Plains from northern Texas to Wisconsin!! Massive warn sector dominated by high-end kinematics on Saturday, after two days in a row of severe weather outbreak potential.

We will be activating live storm chase mode tomorrow by around 4 pm.

THANK YOU Team Dominator subscribers for making these storm chases possible!

[Clinton]

It's been years if ever I've had a rainfall forecast like this 4-6 inches.  Severe weather also possible 3 straight days with Saturday and Sunday being especially dangerous.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice rain this morning moving up out of Kansas. First of many chances in the next 4 days. Things are really greening up. Trees just starting to bud out. 

[Andie]

Rain starts early tomorrow for a couple days. 
Highs near 70. ️

[Hawkeye]

For days I've been excited about storms and heavy rain this weekend.  However, as is the case all too often, models are backing off as we approach the start.  Some models are drying out my area big time.  Instead of 2+ inches, there are now models showing less than a half inch Friday and less than an inch total all weekend.  Regarding the first wave on Friday, it has slowed and it doesn't arrive here until midday Friday when the storms are crapping out.  The second wave is still very up in the air.  A few models insist there will be a plume of heavy rain from Missouri up through southeast Iowa.  Other models (Euro) say the heavy rain will be in northern Iowa into Minnesota, with no heavy band from Missouri into southeast Iowa.  Once again, I am having to greatly lower my expectation and just hope we can get an inch out of this entire weekend.  

On top of the BS this weekend, there is suddenly a trend on some models toward early May being much less warm and active compared to what they've been advertising in recent days.

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

For days I've been excited about storms and heavy rain this weekend.  However, as is the case all too often, models are backing off as we approach the start.  Some models are drying out my area big time.  Instead of 2+ inches, there are now models showing less than a half inch Friday and less than an inch total all weekend.  Regarding the first wave on Friday, it has slowed and it doesn't arrive here until midday Friday when the storms are crapping out.  The second wave is still very up in the air.  A few models insist there will be a plume of heavy rain from Missouri up through southeast Iowa.  Other models (Euro) say the heavy rain will be in northern Iowa into Minnesota, with no heavy band from Missouri into southeast Iowa.  Once again, I am having to greatly lower my expectation and just hope we can get an inch out of this entire weekend.  

On top of the BS this weekend, there is suddenly a trend on some models toward early May being much less warm and active compared to what they've been advertising in recent days.

Regarding the bolded, the blocking HP's in the Spring time that deliver easterly Flow off the cold lakes....oh ya, I definitely remember how that can be dreadful.  Meantime, enjoy the warm weekend and I'm pretty certain you'll do good...or...will @OttumwaSnomow steal your storms???  My gut says your both going to end up doing well.

 

[Clinton]

Light to moderate rain has move in.  12z GFS  and some other models continue to show over 5 inches of rain over my place by Sunday evening. @Hawkeye I agree with Tom and believe you'll do just fine. 

12z GEFS

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is one of the models that has really dried out wave #1 for Iowa.

[Clinton]

Omaha and Des Moines under the gun tomorrow.  Here's a look at the EF2 composites

[Jaycee_CHI]

Seems like these Severe WX setups are taking similar tracks to the snowstorms earlier this winter. 
 

Chicago just can’t get a win with the setups! Luckily we’re not in a drought or anything, but boring weather has really been our signature so far.
 

The same area of Missouri and Southern Iowa are under en enhanced risk for days on end, but the system just doesn’t move east afterwards. Looks like a crazy outbreak is coming though for you guys out there though! This is literally the most intense I’ve ever seen this look : 

 

 

[Clinton]

Nice soaking rainfall is ongoing, I have a little over a half inch so far and plenty of redevelopment to my west along the warm front.  Rain and thunderstorms may continue through the night.  This is great start with wave 1.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already had storms, and more are developing off to the west and southwest. Stormy night ahead. 

[Bryan1117]

35 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Already had storms, and more are developing off to the west and southwest. Stormy night ahead. 

Please send them east after they are done with you haha! Stormy night and days ahead for most of the Midwest, Tis the season! 

[CentralNebWeather]

“Don’t think the heavy stuff is coming down for a while”. My gracious. 9 pm. 

 

[gabel23]

22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

“Don’t think the heavy stuff coming down for awhile”. My gracious. 9 pm. 

 

What an awesome rain and wow grass is looking good! Hoping things continue to build and make its way to the river.