People I talk to on X. It sounds like this Iowa Selzer poll was being circulated yesterday. The theory they are using it to prep us for some pretty strongly pro-Harris NYT/Sienna polls tomorrow is more of just that a theory, but given what Nate Cohen just posted, I think that's a good bet. Along with how Nate Silver has been posting, there has to be some kind of communication/coordination around narrative driving.
There are a lot of conservative pundits telling people they should vote early to avoid things like broken water pipes, power outages, and not enough ballots on Election Day. Funny how all of those things happened in Republican strongholds......
This reminds me that there was a case in this election where soldiers overseas mysteriously didn't have enough ballots for all of them to vote. I think we can all agree that anyone in the military has earned the right vote more than most of us. I certainly hope they figured out how to get more ballots to those people.
I see Tim ignorantly "liked" this post. I'll say this the nicest way possible. It's difficult to have discussions with people who fail to grasp pretty basic fundamentals. As I mentioned the 2020 election was an R+1 electorate and Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% because he won independents by 11%.
Just admit you reacted because you thought I was saying Trump was going to win the popular vote by 2-3%. We have a pretty good idea of what the electorate will be in places like Nevada, Arizona, GA, NC, and Florida. And of course the early vote patterns are much different than 2020, but with just under half the vote in we can spot a few trends.
- Turnout will likely be a bit lower than 2020, which was the highest turnout since 1960.
- Black turnout will be lower than 2020. We see this clearly in Georgia and NC where about 60-70% of total ballots have already been cast. In GA Black turnout will be down from about 30% of the electorate in 2020 to about 26-27% this year. This is actually pre-Obama era levels of Black voter engagement. The white electorate will be about the same as 2020, perhaps slightly higher, and the share of the electorate as Asians and Hispanics will be about 2% higher.
- Rural turnout will be extremely high.
- Republicans are voting early at much higher rates. This is state dependent though too. The Rust Belt states are much more dependent on election day turnout.
- Independent/non-partisan voters will grow in their share of the electorate, but it looks like this group of voters will have much lower turnout.
Oh yeah, it's definitely the lack of summer heat. There are very few places in the world that have as warm and dry of summers as we do in the PNW that still support mid elevation glaciers. Copious quantities of snow during the rainy season can only go so far to protecting mid elevation glaciers. No matter how snowy our winters are, if we continue to have such warm summers, we will continue to see rapid glacial retreat in the Cascades.
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