May 2024 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

I mean, come on... It literally goes right around me...

This outlook just got updated and I'm now in the slight category. Woohoo!

According to the latest CAMs, squall line should move through here some time between midnight and 2AM. Might ending up being a late night for me.

[bud2380]

WTH? Snow in ND tomorrow?

 

[Black Hole]

Saturday evening sure looks impressive here. Could be any severe hazard with a sounding like this. 

[Hoosier]

Definitely watching Sunday with interest around here.  Best severe threat may be south, but it appears that we'll get into the warm sector and be better positioned closer to the surface low.

[Grizzcoat]

HRRR and to lesser extant RAP showing derecho potential early AM Friday for W/C IA. DMX talking early AM tornadoes on S line--

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potentially large MCS is expected to move through Iowa tonight.

- Severe weather is possible, with the primary risks being damaging
winds and large hail, but tornadoes are possible as well, especially
in the southern end of the QLCS/squall line.

[Grizzcoat]

Nasty

[Andie]

We stayed dry.  Still a gorgeous Spring day.  
Hit 87* !

Rain went to the SE with some strong storms.  Light breeze.  
I’ll take it!

[Grizzcoat]

SPC has expanded enhanced risk further into C.IA for the early morning bowing line. They didn't use the "D" word but I'am thinking it will likely happen.

SPC AC 240059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE
   TO WESTERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
   central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A
   swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely
   across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated
   intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight
   across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes
   and very large hail.

   ...Central to northern Great Plains...
   Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported
   hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far
   southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are
   expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears
   probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The
   current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte,
   should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid
   strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during
   the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large
   buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While
   low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should
   remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will
   be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings
   indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts
   from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have
   expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to
   account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z.

[CentralNebWeather]

The broken record of spring storms continue. I can’t even begin to count how many tornado watches and severe thunderstorm watches we have been in. In the last 90 days we are 200% of normal rainfall. 

 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

SPC has expanded enhanced risk further into C.IA for the early morning bowing line. They didn't use the "D" word but I'am thinking it will likely happen.

This setup looks to be a decent setup for one, it will be interesting to see how the line develops over the next few hours in Central Nebraska. Really concerned that the Omaha and Lincoln metros will be on the south end of this line, which could greatly increase the threat of overnight spin-ups. This severe season has already been plenty eventful around here, not going to take this threat lightly tonight. 

[Black Hole]

Looks like some severe potential tomorrow morning here if we can break the capping inversion. 

[Black Hole]

NAM data for Saturday night is completely unhinged. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Storms about 30 miles west of here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

More damage at our house.Portable basketball hoop blew onto my sons car, shattering the windshield. Down spouts torn off the garage. Tree limbs done. In all my years living here in Central Nebraska, I’ve never seen the relentless, damaging storms that keep occurring. We have over $30,000 damage from the hail storm a couple of weeks ago. We’ve had 4-5 storms since then. 

[Bryan1117]

Early morning/ late night wake up call here as a tornado warned storm is moving into the south side of the Omaha metro. Fingers crossed we can avoid significant damage here. This line looks like it means business.

[Grizzcoat]

the bowing line means business

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 77/54 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 73/51 the record high of 89 was set in 1977, 2007 and 2010. The record low of 33 was set in 1925 and 1963. The record rainfall of 1.25” fell in 1981. Last year the H/L was 67/45.

With one week to go May 2024 has a mean of 62.3 that is +4.5 at this time it is the 10th warmest May on record. The high for the month is 85 and the low is 40. If that 40 holds for the rest of the month it will be the 4th warmest low for any May. There has been 2.36” of rainfall and that is -0.64. At the current time it is clear and 54 here in MBY.

[Tom]

6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More damage at our house.Portable basketball hoop blew onto my sons car, shattering the windshield. Down spouts torn off the garage. Tree limbs done. In all my years living here in Central Nebraska, I’ve never seen the relentless, damaging storms that keep occurring. We have over $30,000 damage from the hail storm a couple of weeks ago. We’ve had 4-5 storms since then. 

That makes me wonder what all of these insurance companies are going to do with such an active Spring.  Raise premiums even higher?  Out here in Arizona, car insurance is almost 30% higher than I was paying back in Chicago.  I just looked at the past radar and that was a wild looking storm that hit your area.  My goodness...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=45&interval=15&year=2024&month=5&day=23&hour=19&minute=30

 

[Tom]

@OttumwaSnomowgetting rocked... @Stormy appears to be in a direct hit from that nasty bowed line in E IA...

@Hawkeyeare you near that TOR warned cell?

 

[Andie]

92* Today.  Sunny.  
Summer is kicking off.  
We haven’t had enough rain IMO, but Nature gets its way.  

I have a feeling this will be a hot summer in the south central US.  
Clean the pool Daddio, surf’s up!

[Tom]

I'd say Summer is officially arriving after MDW...maybe a trip down to So Cal is in the cards?  I love the small towns along the coastline of Cali that have that coastal vibe, esp down near Carlsbad, CA.  Great spot to visit if you ever want to travel down to Cali.

[Tom]

@bud2380 your previous place North Liberty is under the gun now...

[Clinton]

Very heavy rain Saturday night from my place into northern Missouri.  The Euro and ICON showing 2-5 inch amounts. 

[Hawkeye]

The NWS is liberally issuing warnings around here this morning, but for us it's just a garden-variety morning storm.

[hawkstwelve]

We had some strong gusts and some very loud thunder around 2AM as the weakened line moved through. Wife woke up first and said there was small, pea sized hail at the onset. More notably, we scored a very quick .97 inches in the bucket. Our May total now sits at 3.71 inches which is 96% of our monthly normal.

We may be consistently too far away enough to score on the severe weather but at least we are close enough to benefit from the accompanying rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Andie]

33 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The NWS is liberally issuing warnings around here this morning, but for us it's just a garden-variety morning storm.

I find they do this in the DFW area too.  They jump the gun.  
I’ve lived through a lot of bad Texas storms. I stood directly under a tornado in the air and watched the inner circulation.  (Amazing things)

Mets want headlines. It’s great advertising.  I don’t know if it’s another form of promotion or the way they’re teaching the science today. . 

In DFW we know the drill. We can read and feel the signs.  Perhaps it’s for the benefit of the numerous transplants we have now.  But it seems somewhat hyped at times for normal spring thunderstorms.  

[Thunder98]

Very interesting weather in parts of ND today.

 

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomowgetting rocked... @Stormy appears to be in a direct hit from that nasty bowed line in E IA...

@Hawkeyeare you near that TOR warned cell?

 

Yes had quite the good old fashioned storm here! Sirens were wailing in 3 nearby towns and I can hear all of them depending on wind direction. Probably only heard one or two this morning. It turned very dark and after a bit we had a wind driven downpour blowing in sheets with over 50 mph gusts. Had  an earlier little storm around 4:30 a.m. and 0.20” of rain. Over 1” total so far. It first looked like it would miss C.R, but they may have ended up with more according to estimates. This storm went for hundreds of miles now. 
 

Had a little pea-hail from both storms. See a smallish broken limb dangling from a tree near the house.

[chescowxman]

The sun is already breaking out this AM. Should see mostly sunny skies to start the holiday weekend both today through Sunday....although there will be a slight chance of showers each day. Sunday night into Monday looks to be the wettest day.

Chester County records for today: High 98 degrees at Phoenixville (1924) / Low 30 degrees at Coatesville (1956) / Rain 2.62" at West Chester (1979)

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The NWS is liberally issuing warnings around here this morning, but for us it's just a garden-variety morning storm.

Often is that way, but the bowing part of the storms was legit and pretty intense here. It didn’t look stormy at all till just before it arrived it looked ominous! Still a loud crack of thunder now and then with the moderate stratiform rain.

Edited May 24 by Stormy

[chescowxman]

Spring time (March thru May) Average Temperature trends 1893 thru 2023. Blue is actual and orange is the NCEI adjusted average temperatures. Actual is pretty steady.....after NOAA adjustments some solid warming is clear!

[Hawkeye]

I finished the morning MCS with 0.86" of rain.  My May total is up to 5.31".

[Bryan1117]

Thankfully no significant damage from the severe and tornado warned line of storms last night. We probably had 65-70 mph wind gusts, which caused a lot of downed tree limbs and lawn furniture to be blown around. Our next door neighbor's tree got hit by a CG lightning strike around 3:15am - an hour after the main line passed through. It was another fun night of storm watching and we picked up another 0.65” of rain too... nearing 10" for the month now. 

EDIT - Went back and found doorbell cam footage of the bolt that hit/ or nearly hit my neighbor's house.

[OttumwaSnomow]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomowgetting rocked... @Stormy appears to be in a direct hit from that nasty bowed line in E IA...

@Hawkeyeare you near that TOR warned cell?

 

I got 1.0" this am. A lone cell before the line then the  line couple hours later. Apparently  nothing severe  here in my area.  Im at a incredible  14.06" since March 31st

[CentralNebWeather]

Lots of trees down around town. Many in one of our city parks. Sounds like it was a small tornado that came through. NWS Hastings has sent a crew out. Our neighbors boat on its trailer was lifted into his yard. A church in town had its brick steeple toppled. Storage shed for Subway was flipped over. Our basketball hoop was flipped onto my son’s car. Windshield smashed, dents and scratches to the hood, and the hoop was destroyed. We just took it to the city landfill. 

[Naptownwx]

Day two moderate risk for tomorrow with very strong wording! Then there is Sunday... 

[Beltrami Island]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:21 AM, bud2380 said:

WTH? Snow in ND tomorrow?

 

Yes

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Naptownwx said:

Day two moderate risk for tomorrow with very strong wording! Then there is Sunday... 

This  moderate risk almost reaches mby.  

[Andie]

88.*. Humidity 70%
Overcast.  High today was 92*
Severe thunderstorms forming west and a fair sized one moving toward me. This is the atmosphere that can really delivery a strong storm.