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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


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69* Boys and Girls!!!!

Cloud cover. Occasional like rain.  
I’ll take a summer like this any day!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Looks like Texas has her first hurricane. 
Beryl will bring us much needed rain.  This is the signal we’ve all been waiting for The tropics are once again on our side breaking the back of that High pressure. 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Yet another Record low high was set the other day at Sky Harbor (93F)...we torched to a season high of 118F yesterday some locals touched 120F!  TBH, I'm not surprised to see all of these records being set as there has been so much urbanization and development across the valley.  The story continues through much of next week and I personally believe PHX will hit 120F one of these days early next week.

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I'm impressed that the ICON sniffed out the track of Beryl and now it appears a track near or just south of Houston is likely.  The Euro/AI have the storm making landfall between Corpus Chrisiti and Houston...quite the adjustment from the King Euro as it was by far the most southerly model for days.

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Most locations exceeded 90 degrees yesterday with the only exceptions being the higher spots like West Grove (88.2) and East Nantmeal (88.5). The heat advisory will continue through tomorrow with temps again in the 90's at most spots. There is a chance of some scattered storms today with a better chance by Tuesday and through mid-week. While year to date we are still over 2" above normal rainfall the last 2 months we are running about 2.5" below normal.
Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010) / Low 45 degrees at Morgantown/Elverson (1979)/ Rain 4.15" at Chadds Ford (1989)
image.png.b7315ca09296847f31f9b4818fa4846a.png

Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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Spaghetti models do bring Beryl’s rain my way. Could see a couple inches. That high pressure will disappear for a while.  

I’m wondering if our summer could be moderate due to the tropical influences this year?  
92* Mon., 88* Tues., 90* Wed.

Opinions?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm impressed that the ICON sniffed out the track of Beryl and now it appears a track near or just south of Houston is likely.  The Euro/AI have the storm making landfall between Corpus Chrisiti and Houston...quite the adjustment from the King Euro as it was by far the most southerly model for days.

Starting to keep an eye on what happens post-landfall.  Things are still a bit unclear but it's possible that the remnants phase with a trough and swing up into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area.

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94*. Really pleasant.  Awesome day. 
Humidity 40%. 
Light wind.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

It looks to me like Hastings is about to be hit by tornado. I pray not. 

That is the storm that went through my area. Just a very tough day for many with lots of damage. I’ve held off on getting my new roof, siding, etc. I’d love to wait until September. We go many summers and get no tornadoes or hail. Then we have this summer. 

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That is the storm that went through my area. Just a very tough day for many with lots of damage. I’ve held off on getting my new roof, siding, etc. I’d love to wait until September. We go many summers and get no tornadoes or hail. Then we have this summer. 

I'm sorry to hear about the crop losses. I know that's a hard thing to deal with in itself then adding in the countless property losses its just tough. 

You said the rest very well. It goes around you sometimes for years, until it doesn't. 

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1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm sorry to hear about the crop losses. I know that's a hard thing to deal with in itself then adding in the countless property losses its just tough. 

You said the rest very well. It goes around you sometimes for years, until it doesn't. 

Looks like most of my county has had 6-8” of rain or more since July 1st. If it wasn’t for all the damage we’ve had, there would be more celebration. There are parts of the area getting close to yearly precipitation averages and it’s only July 6. Most of our area averages around 25” of precipitation in a normal year. This year isn’t normal. 

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Come to me, cone

152327_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.f724ff6fbede1d075d32a1f55a65857f.png

In time.  
First I’ll see cooler temperatures and 1-2” rain thanks to Hurricane Beryl.  
Bring it Beryl Baby!!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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11 minutes ago, Andie said:

In time.  
First I’ll see cooler temperatures and 1-2” rain thanks to Hurricane Beryl.  
Bring it Beryl Baby!!!

I always get a little excited for tropical remnants since I'm guessing it only happens once every few years around here (at best) on average.  Usually ends up being fairly forgettable in the end, but there have been exceptions with some remnant systems packing quite a punch.

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Texans kinda dig it except coastal but they knew what they were buying into.  
I love these low pressure creepy systems.  They tend to crawl all over you.  It’s fun.  
Adding: The coming week looks milder.

 

IMG_0341.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Beryl will be affecting Texas within 12 hrs. A Cat 1, it will be a heavy rain event.  No doubts Texas needs the rain, just not all at once.  
A beautiful 77* currently.  
High of 97 by 5 pm. 

IMG_0341.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The "Iconic" ICON model continues to illustrate a very cool scenario from Texarkana up into the Lower Lakes region.  I can't recall the exact year but there was a very similar 'Cane that came up from the GOM and through IL/IN.  Was it 2017 or '18?  Gosh, I'm drawing a blank...maybe someone can pull that up.  Anyway, its been a broken record..."pun intended"...as PHX set another overnight warm record low high at 91F this morning.  As I think about why its been happening so frequently this past JUN and early July, it might also have to do with the humidity and moisture in the air as the temps don't drop as much.  The early Monsoon most likely has played an important role.

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All spots across the County exceeded the 90 degree mark with the oh so close exception of East Nantmeal where we could "only" reach 89.9 degrees!. The next coolest spot was West Grove at 90.9. Some of the hotter spots included Chester Springs 95 degrees and. KOQN Brandywine Airport also 95. The hot temps looks to continue for the next few days before we drop back into the 80's by Wednesday. Along with the temp drop will come increasing shower chances by Tuesday night. Each day from Wednesday thru Saturday will feature a chance at some showers.
Chester County records for today: High 103 degrees at Phoenixville (2010)/ Low was 47 degrees at West Chester (2001) / Rain 2.23" at Coatesville (1907)
image.png.59a4221496b9c033b2aaa350594053da.png

Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

The "Iconic" ICON model continues to illustrate a very cool scenario from Texarkana up into the Lower Lakes region.  I can't recall the exact year but there was a very similar 'Cane that came up from the GOM and through IL/IN.  Was it 2017 or '18?  Gosh, I'm drawing a blank...maybe someone can pull that up.  Anyway, its been a broken record..."pun intended"...as PHX set another overnight warm record low high at 91F this morning.  As I think about why its been happening so frequently this past JUN and early July, it might also have to do with the humidity and moisture in the air as the temps don't drop as much.  The early Monsoon most likely has played an important role.

Beyrl is forecasted to rapidly intensify just off the coast, some of the models even get it to a cat 2.  It may track close enough to mby for some rainfall off of it with most of the precip along the I-44 corridor.  Will it make it up into your old stomping grounds?

image.thumb.png.22075a20e95624dc67723fd47c25b8f5.png

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Now that I looked at the models, it would be quite an interesting system to follow so maybe a Storm Thread for Beryl and the remnants of the tropical storm?  If someone wants to fire it up that would be welcomed I'm sure...

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Beyrl is forecasted to rapidly intensify just off the coast, some of the models even get it to a cat 2.  It may track close enough to mby for some rainfall off of it with most of the precip along the I-44 corridor.  Will it make it up into your old stomping grounds?

image.thumb.png.22075a20e95624dc67723fd47c25b8f5.png

Ya, this is quite intriguing to say the least tracking this storm bc it brings back memories of one that I remember tracking years ago and the "eye" literally came very close to Chicago.  Would be cool to see it come into fruition as advertised on the models.  Fire up a thread!

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, this is quite intriguing to say the least tracking this storm bc it brings back memories of one that I remember tracking years ago and the "eye" literally came very close to Chicago.  Would be cool to see it come into fruition as advertised on the models.  Fire up a thread!

I'm good with that.  Lanfalls south of Houston typically produces or come close here.  The Midwest will get a big drink of water from this.  

The 3km NAM is really going crazy with Beyrl, water temps off the Texas coast are 88 degrees!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

The "Iconic" ICON model continues to illustrate a very cool scenario from Texarkana up into the Lower Lakes region.  I can't recall the exact year but there was a very similar 'Cane that came up from the GOM and through IL/IN.  Was it 2017 or '18?  Gosh, I'm drawing a blank...maybe someone can pull that up.  Anyway, its been a broken record..."pun intended"...as PHX set another overnight warm record low high at 91F this morning.  As I think about why its been happening so frequently this past JUN and early July, it might also have to do with the humidity and moisture in the air as the temps don't drop as much.  The early Monsoon most likely has played an important role.

Not sure, but you might be thinking of Alberto.  It was at the end of May (yes May) 2018.  

Here's a radar loop.  Look at that distinct spin!

AlbertoLoopDownsized.gif

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I'm good with that.  Lanfalls south of Houston typically produces or come close here.  The Midwest will get a big drink of water from this.  

The 3km NAM is really going crazy with Beyrl, water temps off the Texas coast are 88 degrees!

Gotta be careful with the 3 km NAM.  I believe it isn't coupled between the ocean/atmosphere so it's prone to show exaggerated runaway intensification.  

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On 7/5/2024 at 9:20 AM, Tom said:

Here was the Grand Finale…it was in HD and 4K so it could take a while to download…

IMG_5133.mov 379.39 MB · 1 download  

 

So about how long did it take to upload it here? Just curious. A few days ago I started uploading short video clips and photos of our storm, but gave up as it was taking a coon's age! I don't have 5g service, but still....and maybe my signal or connection wasn't strong enough.

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4 minutes ago, Stormy said:

So about how long did it take to upload it here? Just curious. A few days ago I started uploading short video clips and photos of our storm, but gave up as it was taking a coon's age! I don't have 5g service, but still....and maybe my signal or connection wasn't strong enough.

I was on wifi and it took a good 5 minutes...

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I got 0.40" from a decent line of storms last night.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A few spots picked up some showers last evening including 0.14" at Chester Springs...most folks however saw little or no rain. Most spots except the higher locations like Atglen, West Grove and East Nantmeal exceeded 90 degrees. More 90's and high humidity likely through Wednesday....before shower chances increase with the impact of the remnants of Beryl by late week.
Chester County records for today: High 101 degrees at Phoenixville (1936) / Low 49 degrees at Coatesville (1954) / Rain 3.44" at Phoenixville (1964)
image.png.7797041809be8a3c4e22429a6e8c7fd4.png
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Climate Alarmists love to say"there is consensus on climate" While Climate Realists ask "is it true?" Science is of course never about consensus. I will always question the science and provide rigorous data analytics using only the actual climate data. All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the unique climate specific to Chester County PA.  All data includes only the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop/AWOS/MADIS climate data for Chester County.  Unlike the data you will find at NOAA/NCEI sites, there have been no post observation computer adjustments made to massage the data .

Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

 

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