July 2024 In The Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

I need to save this one for all the doomsday 'world is ending' posts coming up.  

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yikes.  

 

Looking like it at least it should start to weaken as it heads towards Jamaica.

[TT-SEA]

GFS hanging onto to the farther west scenario... would take the edge off the heat.  

[TT-SEA]

Or not.. even with that west shift the GFS is still really hot. 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM also farther west by the weekend.   

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM also farther west by the weekend.   

Shift west may increase the duration 

[Phil]

I know this is the wrong forum but gawd my geek psyche still can’t quite grasp this.

Strongest storm ever recorded this far south in the Atlantic…at ANY TIME OF YEAR.

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Shift west may increase the duration 

It won’t affect the duration. That is governed by the tropics (CCKW/MJO).

[the_convergence_zone]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well you tell him to move if he wants better weather but then don't let him brag when this heat wave will basically be a non-event for him?    Seems like a double standard to me.    His area gets more lowland snow than almost anywhere else and doesn't normally have any issues with heat.   Those are his location's benefits.    

At least he’ll pay with the highest dew points in the region when all of that moisture ends up in the air. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or not.. even with that west shift the GFS is still really hot. 

 

Looks cooler for me…Upper 70’s? 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

It won’t affect the duration. That is governed by the tropics (CCKW/MJO).

It’s going to take longer for it to be pushed east. Don’t need to know tropics to see that.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s going to take longer for it to be pushed east.

It’s pretty clear. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It’s going to take longer for it to be pushed east. Don’t need to know tropics to see that.

That’s not how it works, brother.

The ridge can/will retrograde or bifurcate in this setup. But it’s unlikely to prograde. Regardless of what clown range GFS maps suggest.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s not how it works, brother.

The ridge can/will retrograde or bifurcate in this setup. But it’s unlikely to prograde. Regardless of what clown range GFS maps suggest.

That was gem I posted and not in clown range. I haven’t seen a single model run or ensemble that retrogrades the ridge further west. It drifts east on every run.

[Phil]

Put it this way. Regardless of the longitude and/or positive/negative tilt of the ridge, when tropical forcing becomes unfavorable to sustain the wavetrain maintaining the ridge, it will collapse (which is likely to be ~ 7/15 - 7/20).

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s not how it works, brother.

The ridge can/will retrograde or bifurcate in this setup. But it’s unlikely to prograde. Regardless of what clown range GFS maps suggest.

You mean split or move west instead of east?   That be might an easier way to say the same thing.  

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

That was gem and not in clown range. I haven’t seen a single model run or ensemble that retrogrades the ridge further west. It drifts east on every run.

No it doesn’t. Look at the ridge in terms of actual 500mb heights not anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

No it doesn’t. Look at the ridge in terms of actual 500mb heights not anomalies.

Not that it will work out this way... but even looking at actual 500mb heights the ridge does drift east on the GEM.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean split or move west instead of east?   That be might an easier way to say the same thing.  

Well “bifurcate” specifically means breaking into 2 parts while “split” could mean breaking into any number of parts.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not that it will work out this way... but even looking at actual 500mb heights the ridge does drift east on the GEM.  

No it’s tilting positively there (and elongating longitudinally). See additional frames.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well “bifurcate” specifically means breaking into 2 parts while “split” could mean breaking into any number of parts.

I believe people typically think of two parts when they hear “split”. Maybe you mean fracture?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

No it’s tilting positively there (and elongating longitudinally).

You mean widening?   Might be an easier way to say that.  

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I people typically think of two parts when they hear “split”. Maybe you mean fracture?

I don’t think that because the definition of split doesn’t specify the number of parts.  

But to each their own, I suppose.

[TT-SEA]

We need a splitting hairs emoji!  

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well “bifurcate” specifically means breaking into 2 parts while “split” could mean breaking into any number of parts.

Do you bifurcate wood?

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

You mean widening?   Might be an easier way to say that.  

That’s generally not a term used in meteorology.  

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We need a splitting hairs emoji!  

I’m a detail oriented guy. Probably to a fault.

At least w/rt weather.  

[Phil]

Sadists will love the clown range GFS.

[TT-SEA]

All I know is that the thread title here is the kiss of death for the cold weather fans.   I learned long ago to not even bother starting new topics for a month let alone try to make predictions in the title. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

All I know is that the thread title here is the kiss of death for the cold weather fans.   I learned long ago to not even bother starting new topics for a month let alone try to make predictions in the title. 

July in general isn’t a good month for cold weather fans.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

July in general isn’t a good month for cold weather fans.

But don't need to unnecessarily tempt fate.  

[Phil]

This +TNH cycle might be my only shot at legitimate severe weather this summer. Didn’t have a single thunderstorm in June, and probably will go another 3+ weeks without any action when the death ridge returns mid/late July.

If this fails…ugh. I might have to ban myself.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But don't need to unnecessarily tempt fate.  

If it really is fate, does it matter if you tempt it?

[Thermal Trough]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF is quite reasonable up here... not so much to the south though.  

Upper 90s look like a good bet down here but triple deckers are looking more possible now.

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This +TNH cycle might be my only shot at legitimate severe weather this summer. Didn’t have a single thunderstorm in June, and probably will go another 3+ weeks without any action when the death ridge returns mid/late July.

If this fails…ugh. I might have to ban myself.

We will all be praying. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it really is fate, does it matter if you tempt it?

Absolutely does not matter... but I am still a believer in reverse psychology despite knowing it has no real effect.    

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely does not matter... but I am still a believer in reverse psychology despite knowing it has no real effect.    

Hasn’t worked for me this summer.  

[Phil]

Major kudos to the EPS weeklies for sniffing out this CCKW/MJO almost a month in advance.

I had my reservations but it was dead on accurate.

[Thermal Trough]

12z UKMET Saturday 5pm temps.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

12z UKMET Saturday 5pm temps.

Brrrrr! 74! 
How’s the JMA lookin? 

Edited July 1 by MossMan