July 2024 In The Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Major kudos to the EPS weeklies for sniffing out this CCKW/MJO almost a month in advance.

I had my reservations but it was dead on accurate.

It's not mid July yet.

[Slushy Inch]

Euro running 

[TT-SEA]

Sneak peak at the 12Z ECMWF looks a little farther east than its 00Z run and not biting on the shift west on the GFS and GEM.  

[TT-SEA]

Huge shift east on the 12Z ECMWF by the end of the weekend... 

[BLI snowman]

Shockingly, some light rain here at the moment.

Avoiding a total shutout for the month.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge shift east on the 12Z ECMWF by the end of the weekend... 

Elongating longitudinally  

[TT-SEA]

Not sure how you call this anything other than the ridge shifting east.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF actually shows the marine layer making it inland by Monday morning... thankfully the holiday weekend is still "wall-to-wall" sunshine!  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure how you call this anything other than the ridge shifting east.  

Actually, it looks like it’s trifurcating if you want to get technical. 

[Slushy Inch]

Woah upper 90s actually makes it into the central sound this run. At least its brief.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Woah upper 90s actually makes it into the central sound this run. At least its brief.

The crash is underway there!

12Z ECMWF ends up getting to a summer perfection pattern. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Woah upper 90s actually makes it into the central sound this run. At least its brief.

Our resident neighbor to the north randy will finally get some hot weather

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The crash is underway there!

12Z ECMWF ends up getting to a summer perfection pattern. 

What are the max temps in Oregon during the weekend? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The crash is underway there!

12Z ECMWF ends up getting to a summer perfection pattern. 

Still close to a 90F burger. I’m also not convinced that this will be what happens. I have a bad feeling that ridge just stalls overhead like last night’s run showed.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

What are the max temps in Oregon during the weekend? 

 

[Phishy Wx]

ended up with .33" yesterday, 6 different downpours of various lengths

[FroYoBro]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Thanks. Looks like summer perfection on Saturday!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Upper 90s in Eugene and hotter to the north in Portland? Weird.

I’m guessing that will still end up being over 100F for EUG on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Upper 90s in Eugene and hotter to the north in Portland? Weird.

I’m guessing that will still end up being over 100F for EUG on Sunday.

South to north marine push starting Sunday on this run.  

[GobBluth]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The crash is underway there!

12Z ECMWF ends up getting to a summer perfection pattern. 

Tremendous bifurcation.

[Thermal Trough]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

If the 12z EURO verifies then 3 out of the last 4 years PDX would have gotten to 108+ and the 5th time during that timeframe. It’s gotten there in June and August, now July wants to get there too.

[lowlandsnow]

This heatwave looks weak only 1 90-degree day for Seattle on the latest euro. I want something more June 2021 style.

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's not mid July yet.

Timing moved up ~ 5 days but considering the signal first showed up during the first week of June I consider that a win.

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure how you call this anything other than the ridge shifting east.  

Yeah this run does prograde the ridge. It is possible I’m subconsciously wishcasting since my personal preference is for a retrogression. We’ll see, I guess.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

This heatwave looks weak only 1 90-degree day for Seattle on the latest euro. I want something more June 2021 style.

Uh…why?

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Uh…why?

I love hot weather. I might have to drive down to Redding and experience the 120s. 

[the_convergence_zone]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

South to north marine push starting Sunday on this run.  

That narrow ridge is practically begging to induce a strong marine push. Even if it stays in place and doesn’t progress eastward there will be a marine push by next Monday as the terrain-induced effects take hold. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Brrrrr! 74! 
How’s the JMA lookin? 

It will not be 74 there.  

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Woah upper 90s actually makes it into the central sound this run. At least its brief.

That’s more like it!! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS has spoken... looks summery.  

[Thermal Trough]

8 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

EPS 10-90% for Portland.

107 seems possible if a standard Euro +5-7 is used. I'll go 106 to split the difference for now. 

KPTV going with upper 90s this weekend for now. But after the 12z runs they’ll probably bump up the temps tonight.

 

[lowlandsnow]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That’s more like it!! 

Definitely better but the duration is too short

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Huge shift east on the 12Z ECMWF by the end of the weekend... 

Phil VS the Euro!

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

I love hot weather. I might have to drive down to Redding and experience the 120s. 

Jesse: "Then why don't you just move to Redding?!? And go on a forest fire arson spree while you're at it."

[Omegaraptor]

36 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

I love hot weather. I might have to drive down to Redding and experience the 120s. 

@Cascadia_Wx I didn’t hijack his account, I promise!

[Thermal Trough]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS has spoken... looks summery.  

Looks beautiful and the heat is short lived. And Alaska gets a relief from its hot dry smoky weather!

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Jesse: "Then why don't you just move to Redding?!? And go on a forest fire arson spree while you're at it."

Second best vacation destination in the PNW behind Pasco!

[Mapletree]

1 hour ago, lowlandsnow said:

This heatwave looks weak only 1 90-degree day for Seattle on the latest euro. I want something more June 2021 style.

I second this. June 2021 is a bit of a stretch though. Portland's forecast looks ideal. 

[Thermal Trough]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Brrrrr! 74! 
How’s the JMA lookin? 

It develops the ridge further offshore compared to the EURO. So not as hot over the weekend but no strong marine push either as the ridge stays overhead early next week.

[LowerGarfield]

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF is quite reasonable up here... not so much to the south though.  

I convinced my wife she will need ac. We will put it in the wall on my lunch.

Today is quite pleasant though. 

July 1st used to start California's water year which made more sense. I usually like to archive my winter signature around the time. It means winter season is coming up.