Tropical Storms & Hurricanes

[Andie]

7/7/24

Tropical Storm Beryl-
Rain bands capable of producing some localized flooding are possible on Sunday, along with the chance for a few tornadoes. As the storm moves on shore Monday morning, heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will be possible across the area, especially for locations west of the City of Houston. Rain totals averaging five to 10 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts. The most significant rain totals are expected during the day on Monday. The rain will be intermittent, but localized and intense tropical bands moving north from the Gulf will be the primary concern for flash flooding during the day. As a result, NOAA has placed areas from Houston and points west under a level 3 out of 4 for flash flooding risk on Monday. 

[Andie]

Right now, Beryl's projected path shows the storm making landfall in Matagorda, between Corpus Christi and Houston.

Significant storm surge is expected along the coast with some areas to see between 3 and 6 feet.

 

 

[Hoosier]

I have relatives in Richmond, TX.  Not that close to the coast but basically a perfect path to give them a good hit.

[Andie]

Looking forward to the rain.  
I doubt it will damage too much on the coast but they do spin off tornadoes.  

[Hoosier]

Not quite sure where it will set up, but it looks like there could be a swath of about 3-6" of rain somewhere around here.  Also potential for some gusty winds near the track, perhaps near (or even over) 40 mph depending on how much mixing occurs.  Low levels should have some stability with the clouds/precip but any heavier rain/embedded convective elements could cause more efficient momentum transport.

[Andie]

Beryl won’t have time to climb the Category ladder but she is going to be a rain maker.  
Outer bands have already arrived inland near Bryan, Tx/Texas A&M. Beryl will likely reach a Cat 2 but just prior to landfall.

Rain in DFW will arrive Monday very early.  
Temps at 85 tomorrow. 

Currently Sunny and 95*

Adding radar at 4:30pm

[Hoosier]

The 00z ICON has a max of 10" of rain just south of me.  Not likely to quite play out that way, but would be a problem if it did.

[Andie]

The DFW area will have a 70% chance of rain today as the outer band of Beryl rotates into the DFW area before swinging east. -
“We’re expecting the storm to make landfall somewhere on the Texas coast sometime Monday, if the current forecast is correct,” said Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “Should that happen, it’ll most likely be a Category 1 hurricane.”

 

I read where they’re considering evacuating Galveston.  It is so low lying and may flood. 

[Clinton]

Hurricane Beryl made landfall around 4 AM Central time this morning near Matagorda, TX as a category 1, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph with a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are ongoing as Beryl moves inland.

[Clinton]

The NAM remains further west with the remnants of Beryl, all other models keep the remnants to my east. 

[Andie]

70*
Getting darker outside right now. Very heavy clouds moving in from SE.

It will be interesting to see how far north Beryl goes before swinging east.  I have a cousin riding Beryl out in Houston.  He’s prepared with water and food. Just life on the Gulf coast.  

[Tom]

This was a rather interesting looking CAT 1 eye wall that came onshore...quite the healthy looking system on radar...Galveston getting some pounded by the heavy rains.  This is where a lot of our oil refineries are located.

[Hawkeye]

It was fun tracking Beryl across the Atlantic.  Texas is fortunate the storm inhaled so much dry air in the gulf.

[Andie]

I may get some rain off of Beryl late afternoon.  Beryl is pretty east of me but we may get some moisture off a westward arm.  Here’s hoping. 

[Hoosier]

The NAM and HRRR are kind of wild around here in terms of rain/wind, in the context of "typical" remnant systems in this area.  Both suggest a lot of rain and 40-50 mph gusts toward the tail end of the storm.  Not sure to put my full trust in them yet though lol

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

This was a rather interesting looking CAT 1 eye wall that came onshore...quite the healthy looking system on radar...Galveston getting some pounded by the heavy rains.  This is where a lot of our oil refineries are located.

I think a lot of people are going to be scratching their heads and wondering how a lower end category 1 hurricane produced so much wind damage.  It's basically a perfect scenario to maximize wind impacts since the system was strengthening through landfall (those tend to pack more of a punch with mixing stronger winds to the surface).  And it happened to be placed right in the 4th or 5th largest metro area in the United States. 

Sort of like what Katrina did in its southeast Florida landfall with its outsized wind impact. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The NAM and HRRR are kind of wild around here in terms of rain/wind, in the context of "typical" remnant systems in this area.  Both suggest a lot of rain and 40-50 mph gusts toward the tail end of the storm.  Not sure to put my full trust in them yet though lol

12z Euro is more or less on board with this, trending stronger/farther north with the remnants.

Any last minute shift southeast though would make the outcome less notable here.

[Hoosier]

Yes please.  I want some excitement.

[Hoosier]

Good afternoon afd from LOT outlining possible scenarios.  They made a good point in regards to if the more robust scenario plays out that it could raise the prospect of downed trees with the saturated ground.  That would definitely be in play, particularly for weaker trees.  The duration of stronger gusts look kind of short lived though, which would mitigate things compared to having a longer duration of winds.

 

The main focus is on the threat for heavy rain and strong winds as
the remnants of Beryl move into the Lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley
Region.

Generally speaking, the remnants of Beryl are expected to lift from
Arkansas into central Indiana and southern Ontario from Tuesday
into Wednesday. As the system approaches, it will attempt to
phase with an upper-level trough approaching the Great Lakes
from the northwest. Increasing synoptic-scale forcing (coupled
upper-level jets, low-level frontogenesis, and compact warm-air
advection atop a remnant frontal boundary draped across central
Illinois and Indiana) acting upon tropical-like moisture (PWATs
approaching 2.25") will lead to a solid "slug" of rain lifting
east-northeastward along and to the northwest of the path of
the system from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
(peak rainfall rates during the overnight hours Tuesday night
into Wednesday). Now, exactly where and at what magnitude rain
falls continues to be somewhat challenging to determine, owing
to two apparent phasing scenarios advertised by model guidance.

Scenario 1: Faster/Less Phased/Weaker/Southeasterly Track. In this
scenario, the center of the remnant circulation would track from
roughly Paducah, KY to Toledo, OH with a minimum surface pressure of
around 1005 to 1007 mb. A swath of 1-3" of rain would likely fall
from central Illinois to northern Indiana. A sharp northwestern edge
to the rainfall would be likely, setting up somewhere near I-57 if
not further southeast. Much of our area wouldn`t see any rainfall.
This scenario is supported by the EPS/GEFS/CMCE means as well as the
NBM.

Scenario 2: Slower/More Phased/Stronger/Northwestern Track. In this
scenario, the center of the remnant circulation would track from
roughly St. Louis, MO to South Bend, IN with a minimum surface
pressure of around 999 to 1000 mb. (It is worth noting such low
pressures would be near-record territory for the region this time of
year.) With much stronger upper-level synoptic support to act
upon the tropical-like moisture, part of our area would be prone
to experiencing a swath of very heavy rainfall ranging from 4
to 6 inches falling within a 12 to 18 hour period near the I-55
corridor. Even with antecedent dry conditions, flooding of low-
lying areas would be likely within the swath of heaviest
rainfall. In addition, a much stronger low-level pressure
gradient would lead to strong northeasterly to northerly winds
gusting 40 to 50 mph near the path of the low which, with
increasingly saturated soils, would lead to a threat for downed
trees. This scenario is supported by the deterministic
NAM/NAM3/HRRR/RRFS/ECMWF, as well as a slew of individual EPS
members. (Since the HREF includes HRRR/NAM3 members, a
reasonable "worst case" rainfall scenario can be visualized by
looking at the 24-hour LPMM).

Owing to concerns that the NAM/NAM3/HRRR may be suffering from
a northwestward/phasing bias typical in the 24-36 hour forecast
range, our official forecast will match that of NHC/WPC and
favor the first scenario with a less phased/weaker/southeasterly
surface low track. With that said, we still cannot discount the
second scenario. And, in reality, something in between both
scenarios is on the table, as well. All things considered, opted
to issue a Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) for northeastern Illinois
and northwestern Indiana and prepare graphical messaging
highlighting a scenario for a much further northwest storm track
than in our official gridded database to increase awareness for
the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. We encourage
interested parties to stay up to date on the forecast.

Thursday and Friday, upper-level troughing will remain overhead and
provide the means for isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Looking toward the weekend and beyond, ensemble model
guidance supports the development of an upper-level ridge across the
central United States with the "downward" branch oriented into the
Great Lakes. Such a pattern will support rising temperatures and
humidity levels, as well as chances for episodic thunderstorm
clusters.

Borchardt

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Good afternoon afd from LOT outlining possible scenarios.  They made a good point in regards to if the more robust scenario plays out that it could raise the prospect of downed trees with the saturated ground.  That would definitely be in play, particularly for weaker trees.  The duration of stronger gusts look kind of short lived though, which would mitigate things compared to having a longer duration of winds.

 

The main focus is on the threat for heavy rain and strong winds as
the remnants of Beryl move into the Lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley
Region.

Generally speaking, the remnants of Beryl are expected to lift from
Arkansas into central Indiana and southern Ontario from Tuesday
into Wednesday. As the system approaches, it will attempt to
phase with an upper-level trough approaching the Great Lakes
from the northwest. Increasing synoptic-scale forcing (coupled
upper-level jets, low-level frontogenesis, and compact warm-air
advection atop a remnant frontal boundary draped across central
Illinois and Indiana) acting upon tropical-like moisture (PWATs
approaching 2.25") will lead to a solid "slug" of rain lifting
east-northeastward along and to the northwest of the path of
the system from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
(peak rainfall rates during the overnight hours Tuesday night
into Wednesday). Now, exactly where and at what magnitude rain
falls continues to be somewhat challenging to determine, owing
to two apparent phasing scenarios advertised by model guidance.

Scenario 1: Faster/Less Phased/Weaker/Southeasterly Track. In this
scenario, the center of the remnant circulation would track from
roughly Paducah, KY to Toledo, OH with a minimum surface pressure of
around 1005 to 1007 mb. A swath of 1-3" of rain would likely fall
from central Illinois to northern Indiana. A sharp northwestern edge
to the rainfall would be likely, setting up somewhere near I-57 if
not further southeast. Much of our area wouldn`t see any rainfall.
This scenario is supported by the EPS/GEFS/CMCE means as well as the
NBM.

Scenario 2: Slower/More Phased/Stronger/Northwestern Track. In this
scenario, the center of the remnant circulation would track from
roughly St. Louis, MO to South Bend, IN with a minimum surface
pressure of around 999 to 1000 mb. (It is worth noting such low
pressures would be near-record territory for the region this time of
year.) With much stronger upper-level synoptic support to act
upon the tropical-like moisture, part of our area would be prone
to experiencing a swath of very heavy rainfall ranging from 4
to 6 inches falling within a 12 to 18 hour period near the I-55
corridor. Even with antecedent dry conditions, flooding of low-
lying areas would be likely within the swath of heaviest
rainfall. In addition, a much stronger low-level pressure
gradient would lead to strong northeasterly to northerly winds
gusting 40 to 50 mph near the path of the low which, with
increasingly saturated soils, would lead to a threat for downed
trees. This scenario is supported by the deterministic
NAM/NAM3/HRRR/RRFS/ECMWF, as well as a slew of individual EPS
members. (Since the HREF includes HRRR/NAM3 members, a
reasonable "worst case" rainfall scenario can be visualized by
looking at the 24-hour LPMM).

Owing to concerns that the NAM/NAM3/HRRR may be suffering from
a northwestward/phasing bias typical in the 24-36 hour forecast
range, our official forecast will match that of NHC/WPC and
favor the first scenario with a less phased/weaker/southeasterly
surface low track. With that said, we still cannot discount the
second scenario. And, in reality, something in between both
scenarios is on the table, as well. All things considered, opted
to issue a Hydrologic Outlook (ESF) for northeastern Illinois
and northwestern Indiana and prepare graphical messaging
highlighting a scenario for a much further northwest storm track
than in our official gridded database to increase awareness for
the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding. We encourage
interested parties to stay up to date on the forecast.

Thursday and Friday, upper-level troughing will remain overhead and
provide the means for isolated to scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. Looking toward the weekend and beyond, ensemble model
guidance supports the development of an upper-level ridge across the
central United States with the "downward" branch oriented into the
Great Lakes. Such a pattern will support rising temperatures and
humidity levels, as well as chances for episodic thunderstorm
clusters.

Borchardt

Feels like we are tracking a blizzard coming up from Texarkana!

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

Feels like we are tracking a blizzard coming up from Texarkana!

Indeed

We're often at the mercy of small nuances with convection at this time of year, which can be hard to nail down even a few hours in advance.  This incoming system is more predictable in some ways, but still with its own uncertainties.  

Was just thinking how it's such a beautiful, sunny day here today (a little muggy though).  Would never know what's on the way.   

[Hoosier]

Could take the minute to actually look this up, but I think this is the first remnant tropical system to track into the Ohio Valley/Lakes since 2020 or perhaps 2021.  In any case, it's been some time.

[Jaycee_CHI]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Could take the minute to actually look this up, but I think this is the first remnant tropical system to track into the Ohio Valley/Lakes since 2020 or perhaps 2021.  In any case, it's been some time.

We deserve something! The Chicago area has been slightly missed by almost every system this year, including winter. So frustrating! 
 

I’ve went boating with friends quite a bit already on Lake Michigan though, so the lack of rain has been good for that atleast  

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

We deserve something! The Chicago area has been slightly missed by almost every system this year, including winter. So frustrating! 
 

I’ve went boating with friends quite a bit already on Lake Michigan though, so the lack of rain has been good for that atleast  

Yeah, it's been on the boring side.

[Hoosier]

Recent model runs have trended a bit north overall.  If this trend does not reverse in the coming hours, then this is looking like it could be the most significant impact from a remnant tropical system around here since Ike in 2008.   

[Tom]

55 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

We deserve something! The Chicago area has been slightly missed by almost every system this year, including winter. So frustrating! 
 

I’ve went boating with friends quite a bit already on Lake Michigan though, so the lack of rain has been good for that atleast  

Play Pen?  Ahhh, the good ol days of boat life on the lake. 

[Hoosier]

00z HRRR is still rolling, but it looks like it will be a hot run for Chicago.  A bit stronger and north so far.

[Hoosier]

00z HRRR drops 6" here.  Actually more just west.

[Clinton]

I'm getting some rain from Beryl.  Thunderstorms are forming and barely moving, looks like another soaker.

[Tom]

As for Chicago, the remnants of Beryl will be #34 on this list of tropical systems to effect the region...

 

From WGN: 

Quote

Chicago’s heaviest rains from dying tropical systems fell on Sept. 12-14, 2008, when the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Ike and Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell merged and delivered more than 8.5 inches of flooding rains.  

 

[Tom]

@Hoosier, your gonna reel this one in to your backyard...this map is like painting a swath of 12"+ of snow in the winter!  Is it to early to think Snow?

[westMJim]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

As for Chicago, the remnants of Beryl will be #34 on this list of tropical systems to effect the region.

Not sure how many systems have made it into Michigan but there are flood watches for much of southern lower Michigan. We will see how that plays out over the next day or two.

[Clinton]

I received. 53 from thunderstorms yesterday evening.   Beryl is wrapping in some light showers this morning.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

@Hoosier, your gonna reel this one in to your backyard...this map is like painting a swath of 12"+ of snow in the winter!  Is it to early to think Snow?

Yeah, looks like I'll do very well.  Some models have this area riding the edge or even outside of the heaviest band though, so I have the most confidence for areas just southeast of here.

Tomorrow is not going to feel like July 10 for areas on the western flank of Beryl.  Look at this... temps in the low 60s even during the afternoon!

[Hoosier]

Interesting look on the radar now.  There are some echoes moving southwest around Peoria, while the larger precipitation shield lifts northeastward.

[Tom]

This looks soo much like a “Lower Lakes” cutter on radar…can we many of these next winter?  #LaNiña

[Hoosier]

A narrow band of storms has fired just south of Chicago and it's barely moving.  Whatever falls this afternoon will prime things for some flooding later on.

[Hoosier]

The heavier precip bands on radar seem north of where much of the guidance had depicted, so anybody riding the northern edge of the heavy band on the models may have reason to think the outcome will be on the wetter side.

[Hoosier]

There are cells stalled north of me around Gary and over toward the far south side of Chicago.  LOT just put out a flash flood warning for it.  Already 3" has fallen and they aren't moving.  This could end up turning into a big problem in a highly localized area around there as this isn't even the main show yet.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There are cells stalled north of me around Gary and over toward the far south side of Chicago.  LOT just put out a flash flood warning for it.  Already 3" has fallen and they aren't moving.  This could end up turning into a big problem in a highly localized area around there as this isn't even the main show yet.

 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
357 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Hegeswisch - Chica 41.66N 87.56W
07/09/2024                   Cook               IL   Public

            Industrial building being evacuated due to
            water inundation.