Tropical Storms & Hurricanes

[Hoosier]

Oof

 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
351 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Dolton            41.66N 87.59W
07/09/2024                   Cook               IL   Public

            3 inches of rain reported in 30 minutes with
            up to a few inches of water entering an
            industrial building. Rain still falling.

[Hoosier]

This is a July system.  Really.  I promise.

[Clinton]

72 hour rainfall map for Beryl. 

[Tom]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is a July system.  Really.  I promise.

This was THE perfect track for the LOT region...what a system in July!  Fast forward 6 months and BINGO!

[Andie]

99* Currently.  Humidity fairly low at 28%
Same tomorrow.  But humidity in the 50’s. 

[westMJim]

Here is some interesting information on tropical storms I knew about the clouds but I did not know about the rain drip size or the nutrients in the rain.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/07/why-beryls-rain-isnt-our-ordinary-michigan-rain.html

[Tom]

@Hoosiergot a good deal of rainfall from this system...or close to it...

 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is some interesting information on tropical storms I knew about the clouds but I did not know about the rain drip size or the nutrients in the rain.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/07/why-beryls-rain-isnt-our-ordinary-michigan-rain.html

I've definitely noticed the drop size thing with tropical remnants over the years.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

@Hoosiergot a good deal of rainfall from this system...or close to it...

 

Yes.  Heaviest was southeast of here but still got a good amount.

[Andie]

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-07.pdf
 

The Tropical Season has been increased in severity.  
They’re anticipating a somewhat more  active and intense season.

[westMJim]

Here is a little write up on the rainfall from the rainstorm of this past week.

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/07/big-michigan-rain-storm-totals-show-a-whopping-7-inches-at-tops.html

[Clinton]

Looks like Debbie may reach hurricane status near the big bend of Florida before becoming a nucense for the Carolinas. 

[Clinton]

I think the GFS maybe a day or two fast but the hurricane Beryl part of the pattern is set to return mid month.  Gary is expecting a landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Panama city.  This could be a major hurricane.  

 

[Iceresistance]

Look at this, good lord

 

[Tenochtitlan]

Typhoon Shanshan is forecast to hit southern Honshu as a 120-mph typhoon. Such strong landfalls on Japan aren’t very common.

[Iceresistance]

After 1776 days, look what we got: 

[Jayhawker85]

Looks like hurricane season will get off to a start with a storm forming this weekend to start the peak of hurricane season 

[Clinton]

On 8/26/2024 at 9:08 PM, Jayhawker85 said:

Looks like hurricane season will get off to a start with a storm forming this weekend to start the peak of hurricane season 

Things are about to get going along the Carolina coast and the Florida panhandle.  It should be an active month in the tropics.

[Tom]

The Euro AI and ICON are starting to show something of interesting for the Gulf Coast areas of LA/TX next week???  9/11???

[Hoosier]

On 9/5/2024 at 8:19 AM, Tom said:

The Euro AI and ICON are starting to show something of interesting for the Gulf Coast areas of LA/TX next week???  9/11???

The 12z GFS and Canadian both send that system up to the Lakes.  Something to watch as the pattern looks pretty bone dry other than that.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

Global ACE since 1990 was about 76%, that Atlantic was something like 180%. The long term average in the Atlantic for 100 years was 9NS/yr. It seems it evened out this year. 

[Clinton]

Looks like a potential major hurricane for the Louisiana coast.  18z GFS along with the 12z Euro starting to show this.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like a potential major hurricane for the Louisiana coast.  18z GFS along with the 12z Euro starting to show this.

Should at least be a hurricane at landfall.  How strong it gets is questionable but models seem to have a good signal for pretty substantial strengthening.

What happens after landfall is up in the air.  Will it sort of get blocked and die somewhere around the Mid Mississippi Valley or will it be able to move farther north.

[Tom]

Big Win for the ICON and eventually the Euro AI model...ICON has been rock steady in terms of overall track into LA area.  Should be an interesting couple of days to see if this system really strengthens in those very warm GOM waters.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Big Win for the ICON and eventually the Euro AI model...ICON has been rock steady in terms of overall track into LA area.  Should be an interesting couple of days to see if this system really strengthens in those very warm GOM waters.

The ICON has owned the other models in the tropics especially the Gulf.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The ICON has owned the other models in the tropics especially the Gulf.

The good ol' Iconic ICON...lets see its performance tracking winter storms!

[Andie]

16 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like a potential major hurricane for the Louisiana coast.  18z GFS along with the 12z Euro starting to show this.

Water temp in GOM 85*.  
Plenty of energy there. 

[Niko]

W the current track its taking, hopefully, some of the remnants can move up north towards MI and other locales that desperately need the rainfall.  LA looks like the sweet spot as of now as it is taking a slight eastward track. Luckily this thing will pick up speed and not stall down there. Good luck to those people that are in the path of this.

[Hoosier]

NHC forecast now has Francine getting to category 2.  Can't rule out something stronger, but conditions do appear to become a little less favorable just prior to landfall so it's possible there is some leveling off of intensity as it approaches the coast.

[Tenochtitlan]

Francine is up to 85 mph now despite some dry air and shear. The good news is it doesn’t look like a direct hit on NOLA.

[Jayhawker85]

And after Florence makes landfall today the tropics goes back to dormant during the peak of hurricane season. The hurricane forecast forecasters did a terrible job with their seasonal predictions this year 

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

And after Florence makes landfall today the tropics goes back to dormant during the peak of hurricane season. The hurricane forecast forecasters did a terrible job with their seasonal predictions this year 

How do you think Gary Lezak's forecast has done so far?

[Jayhawker85]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

How do you think Gary Lezak's forecast has done so far?

i would give him a B+ so far this season. He is the only forecaster that predicted a slower hurricane season and some of the storm tracks fell where he predicted it would and others have not formed or went where he predicted but overall he did pretty decent 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i would give him a B+ so far this season. He is the only forecaster that predicted a slower hurricane season and some of the storm tracks fell where he predicted it would and others have not formed or went where he predicted but overall he did pretty decent 

I agree, I have to give credit where credit is due...his technology was far better in advance of every other met/model or institution the last 3 years.  Although, we still have OCT to deal with and the new LRC develops then so we shall see if there is more "home grown" activity in the GOM and then along the east coast.

[Tenochtitlan]

Francine is close to making landfall and is looking pretty decent on radar. Should be the strongest hurricane so far to make landfall in the US this season, albeit still just a high-end Cat 1. 

[Niko]

Cloud shield from Francine will visit here over the weekend, but hoping along w that, some hvy downpours. As of right now, it looks to be just cloudy skies w breezy winds. That stubborn HP to my east will tare this moisture apart as it tries to make it northward, but it still bears watching for the possibility of some rainfall.

[Tenochtitlan]

Francine is 100 mph now and about to make landfall. First cat 2 landfall in the USA of the season

[Tenochtitlan]

New Orleans is getting gusts of around 60 mph now with torrential rain. Nothing too extreme for them, but it will probably knock some trees down. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

New Orleans is getting gusts of around 60 mph now with torrential rain. Nothing too extreme for them, but it will probably knock some trees down. 

Airport gusted to 78 mph a while ago and 76 mph more recently.

[Tenochtitlan]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Airport gusted to 78 mph a while ago and 76 mph more recently.

How do you see the five-minute observations? I can only see the hourly ones so I missed those higher gusts.