Tropical Storms & Hurricanes

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

How do you see the five-minute observations? I can only see the hourly ones so I missed those higher gusts.

Here ya go

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMSY

[Tom]

Yikes, I'm really worried for my friends/family across W and S FL...man, that pattern is ripe for a Major Hurricane to hit the NE GOM late in Week 2 (26th-28th). 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yikes, I'm really worried for my friends/family across W and S FL...man, that pattern is ripe for a Major Hurricane to hit the NE GOM late in Week 2 (26th-28th). 

The Euro finally catching on to what the GFS has been showing for awhile.  Like you said a big hurricane is possible. 

[Clinton]

Pretty high chances something gets going in the Caribbean. 

[Hoosier]

Seemingly good consensus now on the idea of a tropical system of interest later next week or weekend.

The 00z Canadian has a pretty wild evolution.  Hurricane makes landfall around the Florida panhandle and then it sort of gets Fujiwhara'd to the Dakotas.

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seemingly good consensus now on the idea of a tropical system of interest later next week or weekend.

The 00z Canadian has a pretty wild evolution.  Hurricane makes landfall around the Florida panhandle and then it sort of gets Fujiwhara'd to the Dakotas.

Interestingly, the Canadian has not skipped a beat on this idea for like 5+ runs...the GFS has been back n forth of late but the general idea is there....oddly enough, the Euro Op is not buying it at all...and hasn't really shown any big hits.  I'm sure it will in future runs bc it tends to play catch up within the 5 day window.  

[Tom]

How bad has the Euro/EPS been this hurricane season?  My goodness, gotta give credit to the GFS, Canadian and ICON for sniffing out the general idea of a storm forming near the Yucatan and heading into the N/NE GOM.  It's fun watching the individual model runs advertising  a ton of blocking in place .  I think its safe to say, we are far from seeing a definitive storm track and where it goes as it makes landfall.  Needless to say, anyone along the gulf coast from MS to FL is in the game.

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

How bad has the Euro/EPS been this hurricane season?  My goodness, gotta give credit to the GFS, Canadian and ICON for sniffing out the general idea of a storm forming near the Yucatan and heading into the N/NE GOM.  It's fun watching the individual model runs advertising  a ton of blocking in place .  I think its safe to say, we are far from seeing a definitive storm track and where it goes as it makes landfall.  Needless to say, anyone along the gulf coast from MS to FL is in the game.

Models are all showing a piece of energy breaking off and rotating back towards mby.  This would produce another large rainfall for Missouri and others in the middle of the country. 

[Clinton]

Models are starting to zero in on the Florida panhandle, even the Euro which has been dreadful in the tropics and elsewhere this year.  Some potential for a major hurricane and landfall near some close friends of mine in Destin. 

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Models are all showing a piece of energy breaking off and rotating back towards mby.  This would produce another large rainfall for Missouri and others in the middle of the country. 

I'm starting to notice some interesting changes in the pattern this coming week.  Not only do we have the Tropical system to track, but there are 2 more pieces of energy/troughs that interact together.  1) A northern energy that dives south out of Canada which tracks from British Columbia 2) The remnants of ULL that tracked out of the 4 corners begins to shear out......when you combine all of this somewhere over Texarkana or the Midwest region, I'm starting to believe that the upcoming LRC will show more of a STJ and eastern CONUS storm track.  There are some signals that in early OCT another possible storm to come out of the Caribbean and head towards FL/Bahamas.  

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm starting to notice some interesting changes in the pattern this coming week.  Not only do we have the Tropical system to track, but there are 2 more pieces of energy/troughs that interact together.  1) A northern energy that dives south out of Canada which tracks from British Columbia 2) The remnants of ULL that tracked out of the 4 corners begins to shear out......when you combine all of this somewhere over Texarkana or the Midwest region, I'm starting to believe that the upcoming LRC will show more of a STJ and eastern CONUS storm track.  There are some signals that in early OCT another possible storm to come out of the Caribbean and head towards FL/Bahamas.  

This is exciting and I can't wait to see how it plays out.  Is the MJO going to play ball in the cold phases this winter?  It sure looks interesting. 

[Hoosier]

Obviously curious to see what happens at landfall as far as intensity/location, but also interested to see what happens after that.  The setup with the cutoff ull being involved makes it more complex and prone to significant model swings, so I suspect it will take some time to sort out.  

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously curious to see what happens at landfall as far as intensity/location, but also interested to see what happens after that.  The setup with the cutoff ull being involved makes it more complex and prone to significant model swings, so I suspect it will take some time to sort out.  

I’m curious as well. I have never seen a hurricane hit Florida and track NW over KC and stalls out. That has to be some major blocking happening for that to happen 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m curious as well. I have never seen a hurricane hit Florida and track NW over KC and stalls out. That has to be some major blocking happening for that to happen 

There's all kinds of questions with how this setup will evolve.  Models sometimes struggle enough as is with cutoff lows, let alone throwing a tropical system into the mix.  One of the questions post-landfall is how long does it take for the tropical system to become fully absorbed by the ull.  The 12z UKMET maintains the remnant tropical circulation pretty well, having it over Indiana at 144 hrs, with a weaker sfc low associated with the ull over KS.

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m curious as well. I have never seen a hurricane hit Florida and track NW over KC and stalls out. That has to be some major blocking happening for that to happen 

 

55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's all kinds of questions with how this setup will evolve.  Models sometimes struggle enough as is with cutoff lows, let alone throwing a tropical system into the mix.  One of the questions post-landfall is how long does it take for the tropical system to become fully absorbed by the ull.  The 12z UKMET maintains the remnant tropical circulation pretty well, having it over Indiana at 144 hrs, with a weaker sfc low associated with the ull over KS.

 

If the cutoff low is able to absorb moisture from the Tropical system that could drop a ton of rainfall on some.  Is there any precedent of that happening in a setup like this?

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

If the cutoff low is able to absorb moisture from the Tropical system that could drop a ton of rainfall on some.  Is there any precedent of that happening in a setup like this?

I'm sure there is, but can't think of any examples off the top of my head.  

It's common to see trough interaction/phasing with tropical systems of course, but typically the whole regime will be rather progressive as it moves through the Midwest.  Certainly would be out of the ordinary to see a tropical system merge with the ull and essentially rot in place in this region of the country.

[jaster220]

IF this becomes a MAJOR, odds have to be highly stacked against lightning striking twice - i.e. a path that destroys the same places Michael did.

Also, keeping this in mind:

Quote

It's interesting that if there is a high-impact mid to late hurricane season, that is coordinated with a fast start to winter in December. 

 

[Hoosier]

If this tropical system were to make landfall in the Florida panhandle, it would be unusual for the remnant center to get as far west as Illinois (just talking about the surface low and not necessarily the rain shield) but it has happened before.  Dennis in 2005 is one example.  Typically something that landfalls that far east will recurve more quickly though.

 

 

[Clinton]

The GFS is showing a major hurricane. Other models aren't as strong but the GFS has showed this a couple runs in a row.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The GFS is showing a major hurricane. Other models aren't as strong but the GFS has showed this a couple runs in a row.

Intensity is certainly a question mark, and one thing that will play a big role is the location of that ull and how far it is from the hurricane.  Could either provide some shear or help to ventilate the hurricane.   

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If this tropical system were to make landfall in the Florida panhandle, it would be unusual for the remnant center to get as far west as Illinois (just talking about the surface low and not necessarily the rain shield) but it has happened before.  Dennis in 2005 is one example.  Typically something that landfalls that far east will recurve more quickly though.

 

 

Agreed. Would need it to be on a W of N trajectory as Dennis was to even have a shot and "he" was the very far tip of the panhandle at that vs say Michael hit on a solid NE trajectory. I'm likely too far N to worry about any remnant hitting here. 

[Tom]

Well, my gut feeling all along was that Helene will end up becoming our 2nd Major Hurricane of the season...unfortunately, this Beast is going to target some of the most beautiful beach communities all along the FL coast.  The ONLY good news is it will track somewhat quickly as it makes landfall.  

[Hoosier]

The HWRF is running for the tropical system now, even though it's still considered to be a potential tropical cyclone by NHC, and well, the 6z run was quite ominous for Florida.  Verbatim, it does weaken some on that run as it approaches landfall but I wouldn't obsess over details yet.  

[Hoosier]

The HAFS-A and B both go nuclear with this thing.  Don't know what kind of track record they have though.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The HAFS-A and B both go nuclear with this thing.  Don't know what kind of track record they have though.

Both highly respected models. But bombing out at 888 is hard to believe. 

[Hoosier]

Canadian is an outlier on the 12z cycle.  It has a farther east position of the upper low and allows the hurricane remnants to be yanked in more quickly/effectively. 

Here's a comparison of models at 96 hrs

 

 

[Hoosier]

This track once farther inland is quite atypical.  Very unusual to see a north-northeast movement in the GOM transitioning to a northwest movement well after landfall.

 

[Hoosier]

GFS has been trying to keep the upper level low and hurricane remnants as more distinct entities on recent runs, thus resulting in the tropical remnants tracking farther east and dissipating more quickly.

I wonder if the ultimate strength of the hurricane may play a role in that, as in tipping the scales one way or another.  Long ago I remember reading that stronger hurricanes are more likely to not be fully absorbed by other systems, but I can't remember the reason why.  If anybody has an explanation for that, please tell.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This track once farther inland is quite atypical.  Very unusual to see a north-northeast movement in the GOM transitioning to a northwest movement well after landfall.

 

LOL you're in "the cone" on an NHC map. Has yby been there b4? I seriously cannot remember seeing such

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

LOL you're in "the cone" on an NHC map. Has yby been there b4? I seriously cannot remember seeing such

Yeah, it happens sometimes.  Have had some tropical systems track close to here over the years.  Gustav in 2008 went right overhead.  

[Tom]

Some of the CAM’s and hurricane models are showing signs of significant intensification up into the coastline and holding near peak intensity.  That’s not a good thing to see from such a broad tropical storm.

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, Tom said:

Some of the CAM’s and hurricane models are showing signs of significant intensification up into the coastline and holding near peak intensity.  That’s not a good thing to see from such a broad tropical storm.

NHC mentioned that this system ranks in the 90th percentile for size for storms at similar latitude.  

Places like Tampa could have a significant surge/flooding issue even if they are well east of the center.

 

Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes.  Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side.

[Jayhawker85]

let the model battle begin to see which one called this storm right since the shear is now going away. 

its going to be real interesting to see how quickly this spins up once it enters the gulf

[tStacsh]

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, it happens sometimes.  Have had some tropical systems track close to here over the years.  Gustav in 2008 went right overhead.  

Yep, I remember this one

[Hoosier]

Still a bit of uncertainty with just how robust the remnant low-level circulation of Helene will be as it moves into the Ohio Valley, but assuming that there could still be a fairly deep surface low (as reflected on much of the guidance) for this time of year given the rapid forward speed + baroclinic assistance.  If that's the case, then Friday could be fairly breezy in the Ohio Valley.  

[Hoosier]

This thing is progged to be getting into Kentucky about 15 hours after landfall.  That's about as fast as it gets for a system making landfall in the Gulf.

The inland wind damage footprint with this should be pretty long.  Even places like Atlanta (or perhaps just east of there depending on ultimate track) are in for a rough time.  I know the Atlanta area had a lot of problems with Opal back in the 1990s.  Not too familiar with their storm history but would think this could be one of their most impactful hits since then if the track is favorable enough.  

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yep, I remember this one

K, but it was Ike later that month that brought the foot of rain and flooded my new basement in Marshall. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Still a bit of uncertainty with just how robust the remnant low-level circulation of Helene will be as it moves into the Ohio Valley, but assuming that there could still be a fairly deep surface low (as reflected on much of the guidance) for this time of year given the rapid forward speed + baroclinic assistance.  If that's the case, then Friday could be fairly breezy in the Ohio Valley.  

As windy as Ike? His rampage in OH was the 2nd costliest natural disaster in the state's history after the Xenia F5. Ike's death toll included 28 persons in Ohio. That's a wild stat imho. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This thing is progged to be getting into Kentucky about 15 hours after landfall.  That's about as fast as it gets for a system making landfall in the Gulf.

The inland wind damage footprint with this should be pretty long.  Even places like Atlanta (or perhaps just east of there depending on ultimate track) are in for a rough time.  I know the Atlanta area had a lot of problems with Opal back in the 1990s.  Not too familiar with their storm history but would think this could be one of their most impactful hits since then if the track is favorable enough.  

I know the mystery remnant that brought Detroit 70 mph winds and killed several people came NNE at incredible forward speed once it connected with an incoming CF. Wish I had saved the article on that event. 

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

As windy as Ike? His rampage in OH was the 2nd costliest natural disaster in the state's history after the Xenia F5. Ike's death toll included 28 persons in Ohio. That's a wild stat imho. 

No, not that windy.  The strongest winds with Ike's remnants were actually in areas that were mostly sunny because they had very efficient mixing.  Helene's remnants will be accompanied by a lot of clouds and rain in the Ohio Valley.

Ike, the 1900 Galveston hurricane, and that thing from 1941 that you mentioned in your other post are sort of in a class of their own when it comes to damaging wind impacts from tropical systems in the Lakes and/or Ohio Valley.