Tropical Storms & Hurricanes

[Tom]

I just reached out to my friend who is staying in Playa Del Carmen as Helene is just about to reach hurricane status...amazing satellite imagery as this storm grows/intensifies...

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#homePageLink

[Niko]

Man, this will be one large hurricane. CAT4 not outta the question when it makes landfall. Good luck to all the people down there that are in the path of this. Hopefully, folks are prepping today or evacuating.

I am hopeful that my area can get some water from Helene. As for now, my forecast reads chance for rain over the weekend.

[Hoosier]

Pretty good agreement on the major model runs (sans 12z Euro, which isn't out yet) on still being sub 990 mb at 18z Friday.

 

[Hoosier]

The 12z HWRF is pretty bonkers.  Very bad near/after landfall of course, but it still has a 970 mb low as it enters Kentucky.  I've looked into previous storms before for a project that I did about tropical remnants in the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and I can say that a tropical system retaining that kind of strength into the Ohio Valley would be completely unprecented in the historical record.

If it's somehow right, then we would be looking at legit tropical storm conditions persisting into the Ohio Valley.  But since virtually all other guidance is quite a bit weaker with the surface low, it's hard to put much stock in the HWRF at this point.  Interesting to look at though.

[Hoosier]

LOT afd went into some detail regarding the winds from the remnants of Helene.  Nothing really high end, but not something you see all the time from tropical remnants around here.  

There's still a strong core of winds just off the deck on Friday, so if mixing is a little better than progged, then it's possible that winds would be more solidly into advisory criteria.  But for now, reaching advisory criteria looks borderline.

 

The main change in the forecast message for Friday is the
increasing likelihood of strong northeasterly winds, especially
south of I-80 and along the Lake Michigan shore.

Helene`s strong extratropical remnants, possibly still
technically partially tropical into Friday morning, will track
to the Ohio Valley by Friday evening, still at 990 mb or a bit
less. Given the unusually strong surface low pressure butting up
against 1015+ mb high pressure over the Great Lakes, the
pressure gradient will quickly tighten through the day on
Friday.

Exceptionally dry air in the 700-500 mb layer and down to the
low levels will be tough to erode. This will not only slow the
northward progress of (and eat away at) the northwest fringe of
the precip shield, but also present supportive conditions for
efficient mixing, as the drier low levels will keep lapse rates
fairly steep. Model forecast soundings today were in solid
agreement depicting 35-45 kt flow atop the mixed layer, highest
in our southern CWA, closest to the center of Helene`s remnants.
The wind field should peak in magnitude in the mid afternoon
through the early evening hours.

There`s some uncertainty on how thick the mid and high cloud
cover will be north of Helene`s remnants, which could modulate
how warm temps get, how much dew points mix out, and how
effectively the higher momentum aloft can be tapped into. With
that said, the signal was consistent across the guidance today
(along with showing a general uptick in the robust EPS suite) to
support ramping up wind speeds to 15-25 mph and gusts into the
35-40+ mph range. The best chance for any gusts approaching 45
mph advisory criteria is, as noted earlier, primarily pegged for
our southern CWA. Occasional gusts up to 40 mph appear probable
near the lake, though there it`s looking like more of a
stronger sustained wind off the frictionless lake, and gusts not
much higher than the sustained winds. A Marine section will be
added below with details on the large waves and dangerous
conditions expected on the lake.

The interesting "fujiwara" interaction and then merger with a
larger upper low does still look likely to take place with
Helene`s remnants, but limiting factors for appreciable rain in
our area discussed the past few to several days have not
materially changed. Strong mid-level ridging extending across
the northern Great Lakes will likely be a road-block and prevent
the gradually weakening, but still very large extratropical
cyclone, from getting much farther north than the general Ohio
Valley area.

[Hoosier]

Atlanta is under a tropical storm warning for sustained winds of 45-60 mph and gusts up to 85 mph.  Obviously the track will play a role and a track east of them would likely be better.  But if that comes to pass with all of that heavy rain, you're talking about a mess of trees down and power outages in a major metro area.

[Clinton]

The western Florida coast might be under the gun with not 1 but 2 hurricanes in the next 10 days according to Gary Lezak. Hurricane Helene is related to hurricane Debby from 7 weeks ago also the  hurricane Beryl part of the pattern is set to return in 10 days.  I'm interested to see if it happens as it will be butted up against the beginning of a new pattern in early October.  The 12z GFS is picking up on the potential system. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/xf8nfPKJSWiXt5j3/?mibextid=oFDknk

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The western Florida coast might be under the gun with not 1 but 2 hurricanes in the next 10 days according to Gary Lezak. Hurricane Helene is related to hurricane Debby from 7 weeks ago also the  hurricane Beryl part of the pattern is set to return in 10 days.  I'm interested to see if it happens as it will be butted up against the beginning of a new pattern in early October.  The 12z GFS is picking up on the potential system. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/xf8nfPKJSWiXt5j3/?mibextid=oFDknk

I’ve been keeping an eye on this one tracking possibly into the Yucatán.  My friend has invited me to come down to Tulum sometime in early October but I’m holding off for now.

[Clinton]

Hurricane Helene could produce an UNSURVIVABLE storm surge around Apalachee Bay, Florida arriving as early as tonight

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

 

Hurricane Helene could produce an UNSURVIVABLE storm surge around Apalachee Bay, Florida arriving as early as tonight

I still have a copy of the horrific and specific warnings  put out by nws when Katrina hit NewOrleans.   Still cant believe so many died in part for not heeding the warnings.

[Hoosier]

Looks like the September low pressure records are going to be obliterated all along/near the track of Helene.  

Even into Kentucky.  May be hard to see on this map, but the September pressure records across most of Kentucky are between 995-997 mb.  Most models still have this as sub 990 mb in Kentucky with some even near 980 mb.  

[Hoosier]

The 00z HWRF still looks wild, retaining a sub 970 mb low into Kentucky.  It did initialize too strong and so I would continue to dismiss its solution, but there has been an overall trend toward a stronger remnant low.

This is silly but I had to post it.  Never seen 100 kts at 850 mb with a remnant tropical system in the Ohio Valley lol. 

[Hoosier]

There continues to be an interesting split in track between some of the hurricane models/NHC forecast and much of the global/regional models, with the first camp (including NHC) being farther west.

Not really sure why.  Perhaps the intricacies of the fujiwhara is giving the models some fits.  Will be interesting to watch. 

The farther east tracks get the system into Kentucky about 14-15 hours after landfall in Florida, which is pretty remarkable.  The farther west tracks take longer to get into Kentucky (if they get there at all) as the westward bend is earlier/sharper.

[Hoosier]

Curious to see how things unfold across the Ohio Valley tomorrow.  There's a scenario where winds are tamer with very few trees knocked down/power outages, and then there's a scenario where that's a bit more widespread.  

Models generally agree on maintaining a core of >70 kt winds at 850 mb with Helene/remnant Helene, with some models more in the 80-100 kt range.  However, this is largely in an area that is expected to have a lot of clouds and precip, which results in fairly weak low level lapse rates and calls into question how much mixing will occur.  We often see this kind of scenario with our typical stronger synoptic systems.  Some of the modeled rain bands do look pretty intense, which could try to force some of that higher momentum aloft through the relatively stable layer, but the question is to what extent.  Something I'm also thinking about is that the Ohio Valley almost never sees winds of this potential strength from a north/east direction with trees that have full leaf coverage, so I wonder how that might come into play.  

[Hoosier]

Wind advisories starting to pop.

[jaster220]

[Hoosier]

Helene is definitely still on the upswing.  Cat 4 landfall seems virtually certain now.

[Hoosier]

Look at how far inland the tropical wind warnings go.  And as mentioned earlier, there are regular wind advisories for much of the Ohio Valley as well.

[Hoosier]

NHC just upgraded to cat 4 at 6:20 pm.

Hopefully this doesn't approach the intensity of Michael.  Really splitting hairs though because the large size of this will make up for that.

[Bryan1117]

46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NHC just upgraded to cat 4 at 6:20 pm.

Hopefully this doesn't approach the intensity of Michael.  Really splitting hairs though because the large size of this will make up for that.

Prayers to Florida and the rest of the southeast… wouldn’t be shocked to see this monster strengthen to near Cat 5 before it makes landfall. What a monster storm in the Gulf!

[Hoosier]

The 18z HWRF, which initialized the pressure quite well, still has this in the upper 960s when it enters Kentucky.

HWRF has been running deeper all along and I assumed it was overdone, but now I'm not so sure.  That would just be so far out of bounds of what has happened with remnant tropical systems in the OV before that it makes it hard to believe.  

[Clinton]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 18z HWRF, which initialized the pressure quite well, still has this in the upper 960s when it enters Kentucky.

HWRF has been running deeper all along and I assumed it was overdone, but now I'm not so sure.  That would just be so far out of bounds of what has happened with remnant tropical systems in the OV before that it makes it hard to believe.  

Category 2 winds possible in Atlanta, seems unreal.  Lots of damage to come with this one.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Category 2 winds possible in Atlanta, seems unreal.  Lots of damage to come with this one.

Increasingly seems like they are going to be on the weaker west side, but we'll see.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Look at how far inland the tropical wind warnings go.  And as mentioned earlier, there are regular wind advisories for much of the Ohio Valley as well.

Run-o-the-mill surface map with an "H" that far inland from the coast. See that on the regular, lol.

[Andie]

Some interesting food for thought. 
Helene is one very big girl!!  

[Hoosier]

Valdosta GA had sustained 102 mph with a gust of 133 mph a little while ago.  That is ultra impressive for such an inland location.

[Clinton]

No rest for the gulf looks like the same deal late next week as the hurricane Beryl part of the pattern returns. GFS and Canadian showing a hurricane hitting the gulf coast.  Euro as usual a little late to the party but starting to catch on.  

[Jayhawker85]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

No rest for the gulf looks like the same deal late next week as the hurricane Beryl part of the pattern returns. GFS and Canadian showing a hurricane hitting the gulf coast.  Euro as usual a little late to the party but starting to catch on.  

it will be interesting to see how the rest of hurricane season goes after next weekend as the new pattern begins and the MJO starts to move further east. 

[Tom]

That radar looks so pretty...gets you thinking about Winter and tracking beasts like this one but during the colder seasons.  My clients in E TN are saying the wind/rain combo is nuts!  TVA is going to release water from the dam near Bristol, TN as emergency operations are conducted.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

That radar looks so pretty...gets you thinking about Winter and tracking beasts like this one but during the colder seasons.  My clients in E TN are saying the wind/rain combo is nuts!  TVA is going to release water from the dam near Bristol, TN as emergency operations are conducted.

They must be getting something like u got around Chicago with Sandy, eh?

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

They must be getting something like u got around Chicago with Sandy, eh?

Oh man, you brought back some good memories.  I went to the Dunes for that and Lake Michigan was wild... looked like an angry ocean with 60+ mph winds ripping down the lake.  I think waves got up near 20 feet.  Also got sandblasted big time.  Chicago area got fringed with the rainfall though iirc.

[Hoosier]

Wind damage reports are picking up in Kentucky.  Lexington has frequently been gusting over 50 mph with a peak of 61 mph.

[Tom]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

They must be getting something like u got around Chicago with Sandy, eh?

I think I was dog sitting my sisters place during that storm in OCT and remember it was a wild few days of non stop NE winds.

 

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wind damage reports are picking up in Kentucky.  Lexington has frequently been gusting over 50 mph with a peak of 61 mph.

After speaking with my friends in TN, I can confirm that there are literally Thousands of Trees down everywhere.

[Hoosier]

This system has smashed the all-time record low pressure for a tropical system or extratropical remnant in Kentucky, and it's not even close to anything else on record.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Oh man, you brought back some good memories.  I went to the Dunes for that and Lake Michigan was wild... looked like an angry ocean with 60+ mph winds ripping down the lake.  I think waves got up near 20 feet.  Also got sandblasted big time.  Chicago area got fringed with the rainfall though iirc.

I wasn't working in St. Joseph until the following summer ('12), but I used to go there as a tourist and was there sometime not too long after Sandy came thru. I couldn't believe how much beach sand had been blown into big drifts to the point the normal driving lanes through the park at Silver Beach were blocked. Iirc tho, they had already put up the snow fences for the normal autumn windstorms, so they most likely just waited until spring and took front-loaders to put all the sand back on the beach. Rain fall may not have been too heavy but remember others posting that it was hitting everything sideways just like a full-fledged tropical storm. 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

This system has smashed the all-time record low pressure for a tropical system or extratropical remnant in Kentucky, and it's not even close to anything else on record.

Woah! how low did it stay?

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Woah! how low did it stay?

There was a bit of a data observation hole but best I can tell, it entered Kentucky at about 982 mb.

[Timmy Supercell]

I guess Tropical Storms can be very unpredictable. I went to sleep not expecting any t'storms (SPC almost doesn't have us in a convective outlook) and Ashland ended up in a Tornado Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warning in the last 30 minutes. Some wind gusts have been making a mess around the neighborhood but we still have power at least. 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I wasn't working in St. Joseph until the following summer ('12), but I used to go there as a tourist and was there sometime not too long after Sandy came thru. I couldn't believe how much beach sand had been blown into big drifts to the point the normal driving lanes through the park at Silver Beach were blocked. Iirc tho, they had already put up the snow fences for the normal autumn windstorms, so they most likely just waited until spring and took front-loaders to put all the sand back on the beach. Rain fall may not have been too heavy but remember others posting that it was hitting everything sideways just like a full-fledged tropical storm. 

It was crazy.  There were actually a good number of people at the Dunes that day.

[Hoosier]

Hey jaster, I actually found my old pics from that day at the Dunes.  October 30, 2012

The pics don't do it justice though.  Camera didn't pick it up very well but the bit of blurriness that you see in a couple pics is actually sand being blown through the air.