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Will La Niña be strong, weak, or non-existent this winter (for NE America) pls?


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15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I mean, Nino 4 is still near +0.5 and the central-subsurface is neutralizing. It would be weird if the La Nina just starts rapidly developing in the Fall after what we've seen so far this year. I think we are trying to go more +ENSO at this time (years), but the feedback from -PDO will sometimes give cooler ENSO conditions a boost. 

I think a lot is riding on this current positive SOI / strong trade wind regime.  We'll have to see how much of a boost this might give to the admittedly limping La Nina thus far.  The SOI* is way up too, which should cause major cooling in Nino 1+2 in the coming days.  ECMWF surface temp maps confirm that happening.

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The subsurface is still decently cold and could easily dip again.

 

cold.jpg

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Coldest Low = 35

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Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

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Nino regions do not want to go into La Nina, but adjusted for the background AGW signal we are in weak La Nina already. With that said it almost doesn't matter, the crazy negative PDO is probably here to stay and will dictate how this winter goes. I expect another average to above normal snow year in the PNW and normal to below normal down here. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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High today 101*
Sunday we will finally dip under 100* for a 98/99* day.  
Our luck is changing and we should have a week in the high 90’s.  Practically a cool front. 

Not crazy about this La Niña hanging through the winter. We could use the moisture and they always leave us high and dry. Hard on us but harder on livestock.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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SOI is on fire now.  The 30 day average has risen from around -10 ten days ago to around zero now.  Daily readings look to stay high for a good while.  Still hope for high end weak or low end moderate Nina.

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Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

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Coldest Low = 35

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Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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6 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Look at this ridge.. almost 600dm

1.thumb.gif.9e4ac155e6284f80631d97eceb452bca.gif

This is definitely a -AAM pattern.

0z GFS shows it may verify over 6000.  That would be gold for the NW in the winter.

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Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

0z GFS shows it may verify over 6000.  That would be gold for the NW in the winter.

Models originally had the NAO negative anomaly as the max region, but then they trended for the RNA ridge to be stronger (both are with -AAM). As long as these peak negative anomalies on models trend toward something warmer somewhere, I would be a little weary. I've been wanting to see a +PNA N. Pacific low get going, because that seems to be associated with colder winter patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, but we just keep having High pressure there and in the mid-latitudes (around New Foundland, too). The positive trend break has been the +NAO however, with 8 shots of cold pattern there this year, which is something I haven't seen in several years. I understand the -PNA being good for a trough in the NW, but my point is about where the Hadley Cell-mid latitude cell meet, it keeps trending warmer. I think overall we want to see more low pressures in the mid latitudes. Your local pattern is pretty favorable to this La Nina/-pdo state though. 

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On 8/6/2024 at 10:01 PM, StormchaserChuck1 said:

What are your thoughts on the PDO shifting, or more El Nino's occurring several years from now?

We are on year 27 of the -PDO, and year 29 of the +AMO. They both have historically reached these timelevels as phase limits. I think 5/5 times historically the PDO or AMO switched after this long in the cycle.  

Now it may take some time to wind down, but a Strong El Nino occurring within 7 years of the last Strong El Nino could be a significant clue.. if this La Nina doesn't go strong or multi-year. This makes next year extra important imo for the longer term phase, and if we start progressing toward it or not. El Nino says we we are well on its way, while a La Nina could signal 4-5 more years of strong -PDO conditions. 

Monthly PDO numbers for the last 3 years have been the lowest since the 1950s, so it may still take some extra time to neutralize that N. Pacific High even if it does go El Nino next year.. 

A La Nina this year will also make 4/5 years with La Nina. Historically, the 4 times it has happened (counting 4/6 or 4/7 to widen the range), only 17% of the times we have been in La Nina +3-5 year from that occurrence.. I think 42% it was El Nino and 42% Neutral in that +3, +4, +5 yr time range. 

Years between strong el ninos:

1957-58 -> 1965-66 (8)

1965-66 -> 1972-73 (7)

1972-73 -> 1982-83 (10)

1982-83 -> 1986-88 (4.5) - peaked in summer 1987

1986-88 (peaked in summer 1987) -> 1991-92 (4.5)

1991-92 -> 1997-98 (6)

1997-98 -> 2009-10 (12)

2009-10 -> 2015-16 (6)

2015-16 -> 2023-24 (8)

So, 5 of the 9 gaps are 7 years or less. Two more have an 8-year gap. Only 2 (1972-73 to 1982-83 and 1997-98 to 2009-10 go significantly over).

Ironically, the PDO flips have taken place in the longer gaps. The -PDO to +PDO flip took place right around the time the triple la nina dissipated in 1976, and the +PDO to -PDO flip took place in 1998 right after the super el nino dissipated.

Maybe a longer gap between the next strong el nino might signal a PDO flip, not a shorter gap. And maybe the flip takes place during a much more moderate el nino, rather than a strong one.

 

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Good post PhiEaglesfan. 

I think the history is kind of limited. Talking about decadal cycles that go back only 75 years is really not saying much. Even the ENSO events come out like 20-20 since 1948. I did research though (and that you know of) that found +3-6 years after a Strong El Nino we are 2x as likely to see an El Nino vs La Nina. Also after 4/5 consecutive ENSO years (using 4/6 and 4/7 to widen the range), it usually flips 3-5 years after. So I think on the horizon is an El Nino event or sequence.. we'll see how this La Nina goes in the Fall. If it never makes Weak-Nina ONI, we could be looking at possibly a phase shift going forward, since the likelihood of La Nina events will lessen in years time. I've seen that when something has a ++time tendency to happen, it actually usually happens closer to the now-time. 

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On 8/23/2024 at 1:54 AM, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Good post PhiEaglesfan. 

I think the history is kind of limited. Talking about decadal cycles that go back only 75 years is really not saying much. Even the ENSO events come out like 20-20 since 1948. I did research though (and that you know of) that found +3-6 years after a Strong El Nino we are 2x as likely to see an El Nino vs La Nina. Also after 4/5 consecutive ENSO years (using 4/6 and 4/7 to widen the range), it usually flips 3-5 years after. So I think on the horizon is an El Nino event or sequence.. we'll see how this La Nina goes in the Fall. If it never makes Weak-Nina ONI, we could be looking at possibly a phase shift going forward, since the likelihood of La Nina events will lessen in years time. I've seen that when something has a ++time tendency to happen, it actually usually happens closer to the now-time. 

We had a question on the Western forum about how significant the Atlantic ENSO cycle really is in the overall scheme of things.  I have no idea really.  Have you looked into it much?

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Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We had a question on the Western forum about how significant the Atlantic ENSO cycle really is in the overall scheme of things.  I have no idea really.  Have you looked into it much?

In the cold season, it does have a slight correlation to SE ridge

Decadal research through the 1900s does show that the AMO is correlated to US ridge/trough patterns.

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

Oh, Atlantic ENSO cycle. I was talking about AMO. I think it correlates with Pacific ENSO, from what I've seen, but nothing ever really stands out in the Atlantic equilateral region. 

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

In the cold season, it does have a slight correlation to SE ridge

Decadal research through the 1900s does show that the AMO is correlated to US ridge/trough patterns.

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

Oh, Atlantic ENSO cycle. I was talking about AMO. I think it correlates with Pacific ENSO, from what I've seen, but nothing ever really stands out in the Atlantic equilateral region. 

I'm actually glad you touched on the AMO as well.

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Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm actually glad you touched on the AMO as well.

I'll have to research it some time. I saw a chart where it had max oscillations at +1.0c to -1.0c. Have you guys in the PNW forum touched upon this? It might have the same correlation at the Hadley Cell-mid latitude Cell meeting place as the Pacific's ENSO does. 

The coldest part along the Pacific equator

1a.png.de860e6cb07c2e3f06c02ab87e2b15ab.png

Is where "max" ENSO events happen

1aa.png.ee808e1e939b61786d8cd861ab2c4328.png

And it actually has a temperature composite directly due north, if you phase out the NAO in this map, it's more Midwest-centered:

1aaa.png.d7984c94ec4297a778e22416eea66026.png

1aaaa.png.e9afc39ab868d9b2689b8b24142ee46d.png

I imagine the Atlantic would do the same thing.. correlate with High or low pressure directly north of the equilateral anomaly, and around 40N. La Nina there would probably favor -NAO, and El Nino +NAO. I've always said La Nina "pure" (not west-based) is actually more of a cold weather pattern, it just has really gotten its name to be warm in the Northeast because of so many other factors skewing over the years imo. 

I think it's kind of bad news that the subsurface is neutralizing right now, because that probably would have been a colder weather pattern for this Winter, although there are still other factors running high. 

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Doesn't get much better than this to get a Nina going.  North Pacific and South Pacific dominated by belts of anomalous high pressure at the mid latitudes and a strong 10mb, +SOI pressure gradient between Tahiti and Darwin (circled).  This is ten days out and it's like this to some degree for the entire time between now and then.  We also have finally gotten a strong anomalous surface high off the West Coast of South America to aid in upwelling.

I'm thinking we at least get a solid high end weak or low end moderate Nina the way this is going.

 

cold.jpg

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Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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The latest guidance looks very Nina friendly now.  I think it's going to happen.

It's super puzzling why the Atlantic has been so quiet thus far with the atmosphere becoming decidedly Ninaish.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest guidance looks very Nina friendly now.  I think it's going to happen.

It's super puzzling why the Atlantic has been so quiet thus far with the atmosphere becoming decidedly Ninaish.

SAL issues perhaps?  Not sure as I haven't been following it much.

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On 8/27/2024 at 7:44 AM, Tom said:

The CFSv2 is showing me some signs that maybe a trip up to Tahoe in DEC may be in the cards this holiday season???

CFSv2 Dec Precip Anomally .gif

If somebody wanted to draw up a standard Nina composite map of precip anomalies, that's a pretty good one.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If somebody wanted to draw up a standard Nina composite map of precip anomalies, that's a pretty good one.

I was thinking the same thing...N Stream dominant and a stout SER...head to Florida for the Winter?  I would love to see the NW NAMER ridge to drive troughs down into SoCal/4 corners like we saw a couple years ago, iirc.  I'm looking forward to see how the pattern sets up this OCT/NOV.

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18 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest guidance looks very Nina friendly now.  I think it's going to happen.

It's super puzzling why the Atlantic has been so quiet thus far with the atmosphere becoming decidedly Ninaish.

Here's one explanation: 

 

Also, first year la ninas can be hit or miss. While 1995, 2005, 2010, and 2020 were very active first year la nina seasons, years like 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, and 2007 weren't so much. The 2nd year la nina seems to be the sweet spot, as years like 2008, 2011, and 2021 were very active.

 

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6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Here's one explanation: 

 

Also, first year la ninas can be hit or miss. While 1995, 2005, 2010, and 2020 were very active first year la nina seasons, years like 1970, 1973, 1983, 1988, and 2007 weren't so much. The 2nd year la nina seems to be the sweet spot, as years like 2008, 2011, and 2021 were very active.

 

Still so much to learn about all of this stuff.  I feel like we are still as far from really solving all of this as we were 30 years ago.

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Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Quite often there are hints of the wintertime pattern observed during the spring-summer period. For example look at Mar-August last year and then the following winter. Many features stayed consistent even if the magnitude and exact position moved around a little bit.

1ivO9rg1mj.pngau18D942ip.png

Here is the average so far this year for the same comparison. There have been a couple of modes that averaged out to this composite, but it may at least give some ideas for the coming winter. If so, it could be pretty cold in the west and central parts of the country at times but we will see. 

U8aqFRAuhS.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Quite often there are hints of the wintertime pattern observed during the spring-summer period. For example look at Mar-August last year and then the following winter. Many features stayed consistent even if the magnitude and exact position moved around a little bit.

1ivO9rg1mj.pngau18D942ip.png

Here is the average so far this year for the same comparison. There have been a couple of modes that averaged out to this composite, but it may at least give some ideas for the coming winter. If so, it could be pretty cold in the west and central parts of the country at times but we will see. 

U8aqFRAuhS.png

I'll be surprised if there aren't at least a couple of extreme blocking events.  That just seems to be par for the course this decade.

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Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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18 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Quite often there are hints of the wintertime pattern observed during the spring-summer period. For example look at Mar-August last year and then the following winter. Many features stayed consistent even if the magnitude and exact position moved around a little bit.

1ivO9rg1mj.pngau18D942ip.png

Here is the average so far this year for the same comparison. There have been a couple of modes that averaged out to this composite, but it may at least give some ideas for the coming winter. If so, it could be pretty cold in the west and central parts of the country at times but we will see. 

U8aqFRAuhS.png

To the bolded, I have found this to be a pattern I've seen at times over the years and mirror your thoughts and analysis.  It's about pattern recognition and we all know the weather has cycles and tends to repeat in many different ways as research has shown us.  My gut tells me that your prob right and that the W/NW certainly is in a good spot this year and that should include the 4 corners region.  I'm just feeling a bit cautious of the ridging that will pop in the southern tier this coming cold season.

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Nice Aleutian ridge showing up on long range models.. really nice, it could be a few standard deviations up there if the models hold. I have been impressed by the persistence of that region (North Pacific High). It seems to be only getting stronger.. This past May was the most -PNA on record for May. And we really have only had 2-3 +PNA Winter months since 2017. 

Look at this.. +120dm max: 

b2.png.bce82283aea444521f1b44f0e1236b10.png

For a consecutive-year period, the #2 record going back to 1948 is +95dm -NAO Jan 1964-1969 (1 month over 6 years). This one is 125% stronger, and encompasses 7 years, and 2-months. 

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Nice Aleutian ridge showing up on long range models.. really nice, it could be a few standard deviations up there if the models hold. I have been impressed by the persistence of that region (North Pacific High). It seems to be only getting stronger.. This past May was the most -PNA on record for May. And we really have only had 2-3 +PNA Winter months since 2017. 

Look at this.. +120dm max: 

b2.png.bce82283aea444521f1b44f0e1236b10.png

For a consecutive-year period, the #2 record going back to 1948 is +95dm -NAO Jan 1964-1969 (1 month over 6 years). This one is 125% stronger, and encompasses 7 years, and 2-months. 

Wow!  That's pretty big time stuff.  Just wish we could see that in January for once.

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Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  That's pretty big time stuff.  Just wish we could see that in January for once.

It seems that after we switch from the N. Hemisphere's coldest day of the year (~Jan 27th), it starts in that region big time, for whatever reason.. I was noticing how much brighter and hotter the Sun was in Feb-March here locally lately, so maybe it's related. I would much rather have snow in December, because it could stick around.. 

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3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

It seems that after we switch from the N. Hemisphere's coldest day of the year (~Jan 27th), it starts in that region big time, for whatever reason.. I was noticing how much brighter and hotter the Sun was in Feb-March here locally lately, so maybe it's related. I would much rather have snow in December, because it could stick around.. 

We have had some success in December in recent years.  2021 was really nice for us, but a lot of winter the past several years has been late stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have had some success in December in recent years.  2021 was really nice for us, but a lot of winter the past several years has been late stuff.

-PNA really flexed in Dec 2021.. N. Pacific ridge made it over +600dm for a couple of days. Then it extended north to negate any possible +epo/wpo. How well did you do, because that really was a favorable pattern. 

Edit: I just saw this. the mid latitude jet stream was really far north in Dec 2021. Gave you average out of what should have been a classic pattern. I feel like this stuff isn't happening as frequently anymore. 

b2.png.db681e784dced7cee409baaafb57a620.png

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

-PNA really flexed in Dec 2021.. N. Pacific ridge made it over +600dm for a couple of days. Then it extended north to negate any possible +epo/wpo. How well did you do, because that really was a favorable pattern. 

Edit: I just saw this. the mid latitude jet stream was really far north in Dec 2021. Gave you average out of what should have been a classic pattern. I feel like this stuff isn't happening as frequently anymore. 

b2.png.db681e784dced7cee409baaafb57a620.png

The final week of the month was fantastic though.  We really got nailed with a nice snowfall and some very decent cold.  The monthly average temp was well below normal thanks to that.

Interestingly we have had three consecutive winters that have delivered cold waves with max temps of 24F or below.  That is very rare for this area.  The one in 2022-23 was a very quick hitter though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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FWIW, JB's forecast calling for Non-Winter for a lot of the U.S. east of the Rockies during much of the cold season...you guys in the PAC NW will like this scenario...I don't have access to see what his month-2-month ideas are but I'm sure there will be some cold spells mixed in.



image.png

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57 minutes ago, Tom said:

FWIW, JB's forecast calling for Non-Winter for a lot of the U.S. east of the Rockies during much of the cold season...you guys in the PAC NW will like this scenario...I don't have access to see what his month-2-month ideas are but I'm sure there will be some cold spells mixed in.



image.png

Did they put out a snowfall map?

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I didn’t see one yet…

Well in any case, IF the temperature anomalies play out like that, then I'd take my chances.  Locally, the last 2 winters were much warmer than average with much less snow than average.  A winter that is near to only slightly warmer than average would have a better chance of not being a disaster from a snowfall perspective, but no guarantees of course as it comes down to timing/storm tracks.  

But if it turns out to be significantly warmer than that Weatherbell map suggests, then no bueno in all likelihood.

 

DJF24TDeptUS.thumb.png.9621863beff36283ed1415c79c7cb4be.png

 

DJF23TDeptUS.thumb.png.c10f54fac50d183dde17ace59b58f3a0.png

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Well in any case, IF the temperature anomalies play out like that, then I'd take my chances.  Locally, the last 2 winters were much warmer than average with much less snow than average.  A winter that is near to only slightly warmer than average would have a better chance of not being a disaster from a snowfall perspective, but no guarantees of course as it comes down to timing/storm tracks.  

But if it turns out to be significantly warmer than that Weatherbell map suggests, then no bueno in all likelihood.

 

DJF24TDeptUS.thumb.png.9621863beff36283ed1415c79c7cb4be.png

 

DJF23TDeptUS.thumb.png.c10f54fac50d183dde17ace59b58f3a0.png

Anything but those two last years would be a win!  2017-18 would be ideal scenario if there is more of a -NAO and blocking along W NAMER to press the cold south.  

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On 8/30/2024 at 1:09 AM, snow_wizard said:

I'll be surprised if there aren't at least a couple of extreme blocking events.  That just seems to be par for the course this decade.

If there is anything we can count on its at least 1 or 2 giant blasts of cold air due to the blocking, even if it ends up otherwise mild. That was last winter too. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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86 with 60% humidity.  
Suffocating out there.  
Overcast with not a breath of air.  

It was very nice when this moved in. Breezy.  Now… 😕

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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