Report

Well, at least Mark is optimistic for good mountain snows. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/185qpCVR1V/?mibextid=xfxF2i

Where do I sign for this amigo!!!!

I think we have to consider the possibility that the IPWP/z-cell network has initiated its response to solar maximum (broadening+extension seems pretty evident now). This has happened going into each solar maximum since at least the 1940s (most recent example was 2013). Why should this cycle be any different?

2 out of 2

It goes both ways, although I’d argue the most important relationship is in the opposite direction. Phase-7/WPAC MJO is the most favorable for wave driving that aligns with the wave-1 structure, such that it often sets the stage for the SSW. However, the acceleration of the BDC/MC in association with a SSWE destabilizes the tropics and augments deep convection, often triggering a high amplitude Pacific/W-Hem MJO event (or amplifying the existing MJO). So, it’s very common for the dominoes to begin falling when the MJO reaches phase-7/WPAC, then as the PV collapses and tropical tropopause rises/cools, the MJO amplifies farther out into phase-7 before beginning its forward propagation through phases 8/1 into 2/3.