August 2024 PNW weather discussion

[High Desert Mat?]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Assuming model trends are in line with reality, it could be supposed that Phil has been right all along, and we have experienced some kind of an underlying regime shift. The problem is, he also predicted the hottest summer in US history, which is also accurate. During July, much of the heat was centered over the west. Now this month it looks to be displaced to the NE over Canada, killing the Baffin vortex and thereby allowing all this plentiful GOA blocking to mean anything for us on the westside.

A cool August would be telling, and unexpected. Most would nod their heads if I told them that August 2011, 13 years ago, was the last such cooler than normal month for this region. But August 2000 is the last time we really avoided any real heat during the month, as we were once able to do. Good news for July is that we've had a handful of Timothy-sized JULY STINKERS for the eye-five corridor. 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2001 and 2000 all had us tearfully pissing our swimming trunks.

I know I know, this years teleconnections are different from 2000, 2001, and 2015 but for us to have somewhat similar Julys and now Augusts, really doesn’t give me hope for this winter. Those following winters really sucked. 

[BLI snowman]

8 hours ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

What is being shown is an unprecedented troughing period. Not sure what you are seeing.

It objectively isn't. I would encourage you to do a little more research into our climate in the 20th century.

Weather history is fun!!

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It objectively isn't. I would encourage you to do a little more research into our climate in the 20th century.

Weather history is fun!!

It’s is anomalously cold at a 850mb level. That is probably what he is looking at

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Timmy said:

It’s is anomalously cold at a 850mb level. That is probably what he is looking at

Slightly, but nothing that can be construed as close to unprecedented on any level unless that precedent is "coldest August 2024 airmass on record".

[Front Ranger]

Colder than most recent Augusts? Sure.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Whiskey Tango November.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Are you referring to the same school systems that do not build snow days into the schedules up here?  I realize its not really relevant where you live, but up here, it should be a given.  As I have gotten older, and have put 3 kids through the public school system, I've come to realize we do not have the sharpest knives in the drawer running the show.  It used to not be that way, but it is now.

Several years ago, we booked a big trip to go to Disney World and then up to spend the week up on the Georgia Coast with family, starting in late June.  We ended up having so many snow days, we were at risk of school extending past our departure date.  We told our kids that if that happened, they would be missing the last days of school.  Luckily while we did have more snow days, the districts were able to get an extra exemption to avoid extending the school year any longer.

This year our school district in SE WA had a major change in their calendar. They usually have a flex day for Memorial that hasn't been used in the last 3 or 4 years due to snow and one year due to a very localized outage. 

 

Last year we had like 3 snow days. They added a flex day in March, removed a day from President's Day weekend, changed a lot of the half days to just 2pm dismissal (school ends  about an  hour later), and condensed conferences in Spring to one day instead of 2. The last school year also went one day longer to the following Monday.  I'm guessing they had to change the schedule to stay in compliance. 

[Phishy Wx]

so what are you guys hung up on this morning?!?!

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

so what are you guys hung up on this morning?!?!

The historically frigid August that is unfolding! 
It will be like February 2019 but in August! 

Oh and when the first day of school will be! For my kids it’s 8/27!

Edited August 7 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The historically frigid August that is unfolding! 
It will be like February 2019 but in August! 

Oh and when the first day of school will be! For my kids it’s 8/27!

36% chance SLE hits 100 tomorrow. Brrrr 

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The historically frigid August that is unfolding! 
It will be like February 2019 but in August! 

Oh and when the first day of school will be! For my kids it’s 8/27!

I know you're in another district but does Stanwood still start after Labor Day?

[Tyler Mode]

Nice curl of smoke off of Mt. Adams.  One just to the west this morning, and one heading south over Oregon from earlier.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Portland-truecolor-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I know you're in another district but does Stanwood still start after Labor Day?

Yeah my area public schools start the day after Labor Day. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

36% chance SLE hits 100 tomorrow. Brrrr 

Tbf, SLE has pretty much become Cairo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Tbf, SLE has pretty much become Cairo.

They gotta fix that sensor.

[Thermal Trough]

2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Ugh, here comes the smoke...should keep highs a notch or two cooler though...

A short heat wave starts today but it’s going to be hazy. Tomorrow looks like the smokiest day. Then this weekend looks gorgeous as the smoke clears. Goldilocks weather before cooler and cloudier weather arrives Monday. We lucked out with the great timing for this weekend!  

[Front Ranger]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

36% chance SLE hits 100 tomorrow. Brrrr 

I see they put up a +5.2 July, almost a degree more anomalous than even PDX. Too bad that station is such a joke now.

[Phil]

Why does warmth ALWAYS overperform?

Were supposed to (finally) cool down to the low 80s today. Instead it’s 92/75 at 2pm.

Exceeding every model and every ensemble member. And by a wide margin. Been happening all summer.

[Phil]

Highs since mid-June have been stupid.

91, 93, 90, 93, 94, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 90, 93, 98, 91, 93, 98, 80, 90, 90, 94, 100, 100, 98, 98, 100, 96, 92, 80, 93, 96, 101, 102, 99, 85, 88, 85, 94, 82, 91, 91, 86, 85, 90, 93, 95, 90, 94, 98, 101, 96, 90, 96, 96, 92*.

Evil incarnate. My records go back to 2006 and the only comparison is 2012, except that year had much less humidity and much better thunderstorms.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Highs since mid-June have been stupid.

91, 93, 90, 93, 94, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 90, 93, 98, 91, 93, 98, 80, 90, 90, 94, 100, 100, 98, 98, 100, 96, 92, 80, 93, 96, 101, 102, 99, 85, 88, 85, 94, 82, 91, 91, 86, 85, 90, 93, 95, 90, 94, 98, 101, 96, 90, 96, 96, 92*.

Evil incarnate. My records go back to 2006 and the only comparison is 2012, except that year had much less humidity and much better thunderstorms.

DCA had 8 100+ days at this point in 2012. This summer they've had 5. 

But no doubt your area has been among the hottest this summer.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Highs since mid-June have been stupid.

91, 93, 90, 93, 94, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 90, 93, 98, 91, 93, 98, 80, 90, 90, 94, 100, 100, 98, 98, 100, 96, 92, 80, 93, 96, 101, 102, 99, 85, 88, 85, 94, 82, 91, 91, 86, 85, 90, 93, 95, 90, 94, 98, 101, 96, 90, 96, 96, 92*.

Evil incarnate. My records go back to 2006 and the only comparison is 2012, except that year had much less humidity and much better thunderstorms.

Dam how far are you from DC? Those temps are evil. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

DCA had 8 100+ days at this point in 2012. This summer they've had 5. 

But no doubt your area has been among the hottest this summer.

Bro this summer is running much warmer than 2012. Yes there were more 100+ days in 2012 because the airmasses were much drier, but that’s a relatively meaningless statistic.

Dews wete ~ 5° lower overall in 2012. Lots of NW flow in addition to much better convection.

I’d take 2012 in a heartbeat.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Bro this summer is running much warmer than 2012. Yes there were more 100+ days in 2012 because the airmasses were much drier, but that’s a relatively meaningless statistic.

Dews wete ~ 5° lower overall in 2012. Lots of NW flow in addition to much better convection.

I’d take 2012 in a heartbeat.

I hear ya. Though saying 100+ days is a meaningless statistic when talking about summer heat is kinda silly.

[ShawniganLake]

Definitely nothing unprecedented about the troughing being shown on the Euro or GEM.  

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Definitely nothing unprecedented about the troughing being shown on the Euro or GEM.  

Looks like it backed it off ever so slightly. I’m sure it’ll get really watered down as we approach it. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I hear ya. Though saying 100+ days is a meaningless statistic when talking about summer heat is kinda silly.

It’s meaningless in this context. If you change it to 98+ days then this summer blows past 2012. It’s an arbitrary number.

[iFred]

Does anyone have the count of the number of over 90º days in Miami and Knoxville? I need these as a part of my localized Pacific Northwest observations.

[MossMan]

Sun is out! Up to 68 now. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Does anyone have the count of the number of over 90º days in Miami and Knoxville? I need these as a part of my localized Pacific Northwest observations.

This is the only safe space for me to vent. The posters on the 33&rain & AmWx forums are a bunch heat-miser masochists.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Highs since mid-June have been stupid.

91, 93, 90, 93, 94, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 90, 93, 98, 91, 93, 98, 80, 90, 90, 94, 100, 100, 98, 98, 100, 96, 92, 80, 93, 96, 101, 102, 99, 85, 88, 85, 94, 82, 91, 91, 86, 85, 90, 93, 95, 90, 94, 98, 101, 96, 90, 96, 96, 92*.

Evil incarnate. My records go back to 2006 and the only comparison is 2012, except that year had much less humidity and much better thunderstorms.

check out Spokane's July, brutal

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Why does warmth ALWAYS overperform?

Were supposed to (finally) cool down to the low 80s today. Instead it’s 92/75 at 2pm.

Exceeding every model and every ensemble member. And by a wide margin. Been happening all summer.

Not true. Colossal underperformance underway at PDX today. More underperformances than overperformances this year at PDX.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Not true. Colossal underperformance underway at PDX today. More underperformances than overperformances this year at PDX.

DEN was forecast to hit 97 today. They're at 89.

[Front Ranger]

The Euro has once again been underestimating cool air masses past day 7.

Here's what it was showing for day 9 on 8/1.

 

And now 3 days out.

[Requiem]

33 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Not true. Colossal underperformance underway at PDX today. More underperformances than overperformances this year at PDX.

Can't wait for the colossal 40 mph windstorms this winter 

[ShawniganLake]

57 minutes ago, iFred said:

Does anyone have the count of the number of over 90º days in Miami and Knoxville? I need these as a part of my localized Pacific Northwest observations.

Temps don’t matter at all.  It’s all about humidity.  I need heat index numbers for these locales.  140F with low humidity is very tolerable compared to Phil’s backyard 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Temps don’t matter at all.  It’s all about humidity.  I need heat index numbers for these locales.  140F with low humidity is very tolerable compared to Phil’s backyard 

Exactly. Still don't understand why Phil hasn't left the swamp for the much drier and more comfortable confines of Death Valley.

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

DEN was forecast to hit 97 today. They're at 89.

This climate is the worst.

Thankfully if all works out with this job we’ll have flexibility to move just about anywhere.  

[iFred]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

This climate is the worst.

Thankfully if all works out with this job we’ll have flexibility to move just about anywhere.  

Maybe even the far western reaches of Maryland!

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. Still don't understand why Phil hasn't left the swamp for the much drier and more comfortable confines of Death Valley.

 

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

This climate is the worst.

Thankfully if all works out with this job we’ll have flexibility to move just about anywhere.  

 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Maybe even the far western reaches of Maryland!

Touché. Although I need a strong network connection so that precludes mountaintop bungalows or polar igloos, unfortunately.