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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just looking at 538 this morning and things look great for Trump.  Nationally it has gone from Harris +2.4 on October 15 to Harris +1.4 now.  Trump is now up 0.4 in PA.  If Trump wins PA the path to victory for Harris is very limited.

Lots of noise about Republican leaning polls flooding the zone in order to set the stage for Trump to claim the election was stolen.    I don't trust any polls right now.   

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of noise about Republican leaning polls flooding the zone in order to set the stage for Trump to claim the election was stolen.    I don't trust any polls right now.   

Sounds like something the MSM is making up to me.  Not saying I'm certain Trump is going to win though.

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Coldest Low = 35

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Highs 32 or below = 0

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Sounds like something the MSM is making up to me.  Not saying I'm certain Trump is going to win though.

Its not MSM... even heard about it on Mark Halperin's show.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots of noise about Republican leaning polls flooding the zone in order to set the stage for Trump to claim the election was stolen.    I don't trust any polls right now.   

Pollsters over the past two days:

  • Washington Post
  • CNN
  • Susquehanna
  • Rasmussen Reports
  • UMass Lowell
  • TIPP
  • Fox News
  • Quinnipiac
  • Marquette
  • USA Today/Suffolk
  • Economist/YouGov
  • CBS News

Of those pollsters, I would say that one or maybe two have a right leaning bias, primarily being Rasmussen. I'm just about done trusting the polls as well but that's not because they are 'flooding the zone' with only one bias. Moreso because there are very few that will release polls that show anything but the candidates being within 1 or 2 points in any given state.

The message has been clear: this election will be close. Pollsters don't want to be the only one sticking their necks out and going against that narrative at this stage of the game, in fears of losing their accuracy rankings. Makes most polls much more meaningless than ones conducted just a month ago.

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I think the whole thing with the Jewish people is proving to be a huge problem for Kamala.  She is still catching a lot of flack from the anti Semites on the left for not being vocally anti Israel, and at the same time she is catching flack from pro Israel folks for not coming out forcefully enough against Hamas.  No win situation for her.  I've heard interviews from Jewish political analysts who say normally politically active leftist Jews have been totally silent in this election.  A sign there could be a lot of apathy from Jews who would normally vote Democrat.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pollsters over the past two days:

  • Washington Post
  • CNN
  • Susquehanna
  • Rasmussen Reports
  • UMass Lowell
  • TIPP
  • Fox News
  • Quinnipiac
  • Marquette
  • USA Today/Suffolk
  • Economist/YouGov
  • CBS News

Of those pollsters, I would say that one or maybe two have a right leaning bias, primarily being Rasmussen. I'm just about done trusting the polls as well but that's not because they are 'flooding the zone' with only one bias. Moreso because there are very few that will release polls that show anything but the candidates being within 1 or 2 points in any given state.

The message has been clear: this election will be close. Pollsters don't want to be the only one sticking their necks out and going against that narrative at this stage of the game, in fears of losing their accuracy rankings. Makes most polls much more meaningless than ones conducted just a month ago.

I'm not entirely sure it will be THAT close.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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This is probably the most uncertain election (going in) since 2012, if not 2004.  

Most people got it wrong in 2016, but there was a widespread belief that Hillary was going to win.

I know there are some confident people out there, but I still don't have any sense of what will happen on Tuesday.  I guess the only thing that would surprise me would be if somebody has large margins of victory in these 7 swing states.  

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not entirely sure it will be THAT close.

I understand Republicans are feeling good with the early voting numbers that have come in so far and we are undoubtedly in a decent position heading into Election Day. That is especially true across the Sun Belt states (NV, AZ, and to a certain degree GA) where we enjoy a larger than normal margin in early voting. I think Trump has a good chance to sweep those states including possibly NC, although that one seems closer than the others. 

That being said, and I could be very wrong on this, but I don't see Trump running the table with the Rust Belt states as a slam dunk. I get that it would be an aberration from history but I could see those states being split or Harris winning by the smallest of margins. Those states are seeing much larger turnout among women in the early voting when compared to the Sun Belt states. For example, women have a +12 advantage in MI and PA. They have a +11 advantage over men in WI. In NV that gap is +2 in favor of women and AZ is +6. While it's not necessarily surprising given women's tendency to vote earlier than men, I think it lends some credence to the idea that Republicans should be weary of assuming a landslide in those states, like I have seen some folks exclaim on social media.

As we continue to get closer and more early voting comes in, I am getting less confident in a full Trump sweep of battleground states. I could very much see the worst case scenario (for maximum chaos) of a 270-268 EV win by Harris coming to fruition.  Yes, Republicans seem more energized than Democrats at this stage of the game but if women break like Democrats expect them to it'll make this election extremely close. Not to mention the breakdown of how Independents end up voting, which I could see slightly favoring the Democrats more than usual over Republicans.

Again, I'm just shooting from the hip here so I could be totally wrong and Trump carries them all comfortably. But something tells me it's not going to be that easy. One important question that remains to be seen: How much of this early voting bonanza by Republicans is cannibalization of the typically large Election Day turnout by that party? That is a huge factor when assessing these early vote numbers. If most of these early voters are low propensity and Republicans can maintain their large ED margins with high propensity voters, a Trump landslide is much more likely. I'm just not confident in that being the case.

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Needless to say but I'll be watching the women/men turnout numbers very closely over the next four days to see if men can close that gap as we get closer to Election Day. If that gap in the Rust Belt states gets closer to the current Sun Belt gap, somewhere in the 2-5% range, then that will be a pretty good sign for the Trump campaign come ED morning.

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23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I understand Republicans are feeling good with the early voting numbers that have come in so far and we are undoubtedly in a decent position heading into Election Day. That is especially true across the Sun Belt states (NV, AZ, and to a certain degree GA) where we enjoy a larger than normal margin in early voting. I think Trump has a good chance to sweep those states including possibly NC, although that one seems closer than the others. 

That being said, and I could be very wrong on this, but I don't see Trump running the table with the Rust Belt states as a slam dunk. I get that it would be an aberration from history but I could see those states being split or Harris winning by the smallest of margins. Those states are seeing much larger turnout among women in the early voting when compared to the Sun Belt states. For example, women have a +12 advantage in MI and PA. They have a +11 advantage over men in WI. In NV that gap is +2 in favor of women and AZ is +6. While it's not necessarily surprising given women's tendency to vote earlier than men, I think it lends some credence to the idea that Republicans should be weary of assuming a landslide in those states, like I have seen some folks exclaim on social media.

As we continue to get closer and more early voting comes in, I am getting less confident in a full Trump sweep of battleground states. I could very much see the worst case scenario (for maximum chaos) of a 270-268 EV win by Harris coming to fruition.  Yes, Republicans seem more energized than Democrats at this stage of the game but if women break like Democrats expect them to it'll make this election extremely close. Not to mention the breakdown of how Independents end up voting, which I could see slightly favoring the Democrats more than usual over Republicans.

Again, I'm just shooting from the hip here so I could be totally wrong and Trump carries them all comfortably. But something tells me it's not going to be that easy. One important question that remains to be seen: How much of this early voting bonanza by Republicans is cannibalization of the typically large Election Day turnout by that party? That is a huge factor when assessing these early vote numbers. If most of these early voters are low propensity and Republicans can maintain their large ED margins with high propensity voters, a Trump landslide is much more likely. I'm just not confident in that being the case.

Right now it's like everything Harris does is just blowing up in her face.  I do think there is a good chance she will take MI.  I've never felt good about that one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I understand Republicans are feeling good with the early voting numbers that have come in so far and we are undoubtedly in a decent position heading into Election Day. That is especially true across the Sun Belt states (NV, AZ, and to a certain degree GA) where we enjoy a larger than normal margin in early voting. I think Trump has a good chance to sweep those states including possibly NC, although that one seems closer than the others. 

That being said, and I could be very wrong on this, but I don't see Trump running the table with the Rust Belt states as a slam dunk. I get that it would be an aberration from history but I could see those states being split or Harris winning by the smallest of margins. Those states are seeing much larger turnout among women in the early voting when compared to the Sun Belt states. For example, women have a +12 advantage in MI and PA. They have a +11 advantage over men in WI. In NV that gap is +2 in favor of women and AZ is +6. While it's not necessarily surprising given women's tendency to vote earlier than men, I think it lends some credence to the idea that Republicans should be weary of assuming a landslide in those states, like I have seen some folks exclaim on social media.

As we continue to get closer and more early voting comes in, I am getting less confident in a full Trump sweep of battleground states. I could very much see the worst case scenario (for maximum chaos) of a 270-268 EV win by Harris coming to fruition.  Yes, Republicans seem more energized than Democrats at this stage of the game but if women break like Democrats expect them to it'll make this election extremely close. Not to mention the breakdown of how Independents end up voting, which I could see slightly favoring the Democrats more than usual over Republicans.

Again, I'm just shooting from the hip here so I could be totally wrong and Trump carries them all comfortably. But something tells me it's not going to be that easy. One important question that remains to be seen: How much of this early voting bonanza by Republicans is cannibalization of the typically large Election Day turnout by that party? That is a huge factor when assessing these early vote numbers. If most of these early voters are low propensity and Republicans can maintain their large ED margins with high propensity voters, a Trump landslide is much more likely. I'm just not confident in that being the case.

It will be funny to watch the flip-flopping on the electoral college if Harris wins it 270-268 and if Trump somehow manages to win the popular vote.  People who were in favor of abolishing the EC after the 2016 election will suddenly love it and people who have liked the EC will be trying to find a way to around it. 

That scenario of Harris winning the EC 270-268 and Trump winning the popular vote would probably make it somewhat easier for the Trump people to try to peel away an elector or two, compared to him losing both the EC and the popular vote.  But man, talk about a crisis if that were to occur.

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Sorry, but remember the time where Nate Silver's polls showed a very high margin for Trump when it clearly wasn't?

Plus, Nate Silver now has a severe right-wing bias

He’s a hard left democrat.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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48 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I understand Republicans are feeling good with the early voting numbers that have come in so far and we are undoubtedly in a decent position heading into Election Day. That is especially true across the Sun Belt states (NV, AZ, and to a certain degree GA) where we enjoy a larger than normal margin in early voting. I think Trump has a good chance to sweep those states including possibly NC, although that one seems closer than the others. 

That being said, and I could be very wrong on this, but I don't see Trump running the table with the Rust Belt states as a slam dunk. I get that it would be an aberration from history but I could see those states being split or Harris winning by the smallest of margins. Those states are seeing much larger turnout among women in the early voting when compared to the Sun Belt states. For example, women have a +12 advantage in MI and PA. They have a +11 advantage over men in WI. In NV that gap is +2 in favor of women and AZ is +6. While it's not necessarily surprising given women's tendency to vote earlier than men, I think it lends some credence to the idea that Republicans should be weary of assuming a landslide in those states, like I have seen some folks exclaim on social media.

As we continue to get closer and more early voting comes in, I am getting less confident in a full Trump sweep of battleground states. I could very much see the worst case scenario (for maximum chaos) of a 270-268 EV win by Harris coming to fruition.  Yes, Republicans seem more energized than Democrats at this stage of the game but if women break like Democrats expect them to it'll make this election extremely close. Not to mention the breakdown of how Independents end up voting, which I could see slightly favoring the Democrats more than usual over Republicans.

Again, I'm just shooting from the hip here so I could be totally wrong and Trump carries them all comfortably. But something tells me it's not going to be that easy. One important question that remains to be seen: How much of this early voting bonanza by Republicans is cannibalization of the typically large Election Day turnout by that party? That is a huge factor when assessing these early vote numbers. If most of these early voters are low propensity and Republicans can maintain their large ED margins with high propensity voters, a Trump landslide is much more likely. I'm just not confident in that being the case.

I think you bring up very reasonable concerns. One thing I would point out is that there is a key difference in how the sunbelt and rust belt states vote. 80-90% of the final electorate will have voted prior to Election Day in NV, AZ,GA, and NC. In a couple of these states 60-70% of their electorate has already voted. 
 

The Rust Belt states will see a MAJORITY of votes cast on Election Day. In PA it may be as high as 2/3rds of the vote coming on Election Day. 
 

The partisan makeup of early voters in the rust belt is not as democrat leaning as 2020, but it is still 20-30% more democrat than the electorate as a whole. Democrats tend to be women, democrat women tend to be vote early as well. So honestly the numbers you see out of the rust belt at this stage mean quite a bit less than the sunbelt because they represent such a smaller share of the electorate and one we would expect to skew towards democrats. 
 

Obviously the media and Democrats (same thing) are going to tout this because would wouldn’t rather be up 20% than down 20%. However, it’s all to be expected, these races will be won or lost in the Rust Belt by who shows out on Election Day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

JD Vance’s podcast with Rogan has dropped. I’m about 1/2 hour in. Won’t have time until later this evening to finish. 

Skimmed through it... no big surprises.   I would probably vote for JD Vance if he was the candidate in 2028 once he is free from Trump.     He is very logical and well spoken and his biggest problem now is being attached to Trump. 

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Here's why I won't vote for Trump:

1. I think it's foolish to dismiss everyone who was part of his first administration, including those in the military, who believe at the very least he is a poor and toxic leader. There are MANY of these. 

2. While I think he does want the best for America, I think it's clear that more than that he wants what's best for Donald Trump. He has always put himself and his brand first, and I don't see any reason that would change. 

3. That being said, I don't think he's a fascist. I think he's an authoritarian-type leader (this is quite common in the business world, of course) who doesn't like to be told no. I'm not even sure he cares that much about many of "his policies", but I do think he cares about being perceived as important, popular, and powerful.

4. As others have pointed out, I think he's intent on surrounding himself more with yes men this around. And some of those people, like Stephen Miller, definitely have their own agenda that I'm not crazy about. I don't think Trump himself is necessarily all that dangerous, but I think there's the risk that he gives some people who have been loyal to him too much power and just goes along with them.

Some might read this and say "Well if you feel that way about Trump, why do you defend him against the media?" This is looking at it backwards. I'm not defending Trump, I'm holding the news media accountable for not doing their job: accurate reporting. As a whole, they attack Trump in a much different way than Harris, and there's nothing balanced about it. Even if I thought Trump was a super dangerous fascist, I would hold the media accountable. But there should be no need to twist the truth with biased reporting if that's what he is.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

These are the kind of people who will have a mental breakdown if Trump wins:

https://first-draft.com/2024/10/31/shes-got-this/

Maybe the most delusional part is toward the end where they are convinced that Tester will win his seat.  I mean, anything can happen, but Tester winning is a longshot.

 

This is the mindset I don’t understand. I very much don’t want him to win but I’m mentally preparing myself for my estimated 70% probability it will happen. Otherwise I would be setting myself up to feel crushing disappointment, rather than a grim “I knew this was coming” moment. 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Skimmed through it... no big surprises.   I would probably vote for JD Vance if he was the candidate in 2028 once he is free from Trump.     He is very logical and well spoken and his biggest problem now is being attached to Trump. 

Yeah, I’m not looking for any surprises, just a conversation that isn’t canned/scripted. It reveals a lot without attention-grabbing headlines. It humanizes political candidates while conversely it gives one a feel for who they are professionally and how they would conduct themselves. I think voters will be more hungry for this going forward. Rogan isn’t a journalist, seems to be average intelligence, but he’s a remarkable conversationalist. 

I want to see Harris and Walz in such a situation, not to see them fall on their face, but to see if there’s any there there.

If there is an improvement in the economy, border security, and were moved away from the brink of WWIII by 2028, Vance is likely the nominee. Dems would have to run someone like Shapiro to be competitive, 

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5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This is the mindset I don’t understand. I very much don’t want him to win but I’m mentally preparing myself for my estimated 70% probability it will happen. Otherwise I would be setting myself up to feel crushing disappointment, rather than a grim “I knew this was coming” moment. 

I'm half temped to go back there and troll the comment section if Trump wins 😀

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

These are the kind of people who will have a mental breakdown if Trump wins:

https://first-draft.com/2024/10/31/shes-got-this/

Maybe the most delusional part is toward the end where they are convinced that Tester will win his seat.  I mean, anything can happen, but Tester winning is a longshot.

 

So basically the polls are all wrong and it’s going to be a blue wave. It’s possible. But it’s just as possible Trump wins, Republicans end up with 55 senate seats and keep the house. 
 

Seems to me a best case scenario for Democrats is Harris wins. Republicans only hold 51 senate seats and they win a narrow house majority. 
 

Best case scenario for Republicans is Trump wins. They get 56 senate seats and maintain a house majority. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically the polls are all wrong and it’s going to be a blue wave. It’s possible. But it’s just as possible Trump wins, Republicans end up with 55 senate seats and keep the house. 
 

Seems to me a best case scenario for Democrats is Harris wins. Republicans only hold 51 senate seats and they win a narrow house majority. 
 

Best case scenario for Republicans is Trump wins. They get 56 senate seats and maintain a house majority. 

My hot take:

1. Trump wins presidency. It’ll be close but not that close. It won’t be official, but unofficial by Wednesday morning. Harris takes Nevada and Wisconsin. Muslim population in Michigan handily break for Trump. The rust belt ceases to vote in unison. 

2. Republicans take the Senate with 52.

3. Dems take the House with a 3-7 seat majority. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Skimmed through it... no big surprises.   I would probably vote for JD Vance if he was the candidate in 2028 once he is free from Trump.     He is very logical and well spoken and his biggest problem now is being attached to Trump. 

If he’d get off the stolen election bandwagon, I could see myself doing the same. It’s a bridge too far if he doesn’t have the guts to go tough love on that. Same goes for Harris’ inability to just say, yeah, we f*cked up royally at the border in the first quarter. Mah bad!!!

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33 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

My hot take:

1. Trump wins presidency. It’ll be close but not that close. It won’t be official, but unofficial by Wednesday morning. Harris takes Nevada and Wisconsin. Muslim population in Michigan handily break for Trump. The rust belt ceases to vote in unison. 

2. Republicans take the Senate with 52.

3. Dems take the House with a 3-7 seat majority. 

Fair. I think that’s the most likely scenario. I could see it breaking either way though. I will make a prediction before the election. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1DAF3775-D76D-4ED0-B523-BB0517F519DD.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For those of you who interpret registered republican = trump vote

https://wapo.st/4eXeKKl

Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.

All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.

But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early.

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fair. I think that’s the most likely scenario. I could see it breaking either way though. I will make a prediction before the election. 

Not sure why people think the Dems will take the House.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

For those of you who interpret registered republican = trump vote

https://wapo.st/4eXeKKl

Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.

All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.

But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early.

We already know there is cross over on both sides.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm kinda worried that kamalas most likely path to victory in the unlikely case she wins, would be a 270-268 win

It’s literally her only path. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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48 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

For those of you who interpret registered republican = trump vote

https://wapo.st/4eXeKKl

Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with between a 19- and a 29-point advantage among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.

All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it.

But they are better than Clinton did in an arguably more comparable election, in 2016. Back then, late Washington Post-ABC News and McClatchy-Marist College polls showed Clinton leading by between eight and 16 points among those who said they had cast ballots early.

I don’t have time to spend refuting this, but this is pure cope. 
 

1) These early polls cited are already outdated, and the ABC news poll had a ton of problems with the crosstabs.
 

2)These polls also showed a very competitive national race so obviously Trump had a huge lead among people who were already planning to vote on Election Day or hadn’t yet when polled. 

3) The state poll in PA shows Harris up 19% among people who have already voted. Sounds good, but it’s actually terrible looking at the vote totals, if it’s accurate it means she getting annihilated with independents given the voting edge so far is D+26.

4) There is absolutely no polling showing significant crossover voting. 
 

I’ve said Harris could win, but some of these takes don’t pass the logic test unless she’s going to with Florida, Texas and a bunch of other red states. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 hours ago, Groundhog said:

Then you forgo availability, often quality, and innovation in exchange for rationing and wait times. And it isn’t an old, saggy, sorry tub of slop like Cheney that’s affected. Everyone is equally miserable. We’ll, unless you can afford to be treated abroad. Little known fact, here in B.C. we’ve shipped cancer patients to WA for treatment. People literally die here waiting for diagnosis and treatment. ERs will put out a statement that they’re closed because no physician is on duty.
 

With an aging population in an era of government bloat, it’s a failing model. Canada and the US are both squeezed with dubious immigration. That hastens the failure of this model, too.

I have my own stories with brilliant physicians and specialists making the most of a less than ideal healthcare model. In July 2004 at the age of 25, I was referred to one of the top Parkinson’s specialists in the province to diagnose me with it or determine if there were other neurological problems. The waiting list was six months. Such wait times are up to two years now. January 2005 he diagnosed me with Parkinson’s. I’ve kept visiting this specialist once a year. During the 2009 visit that June as the tremor in my left arm made me bounce like a jackhammer and was increasingly untreatable, he referred me to a neurosurgeon to perform a type of surgery called DBS. (You can look up what DBS is and even YouTube videos of Parkinson’s patients with the stimulator off and on to see the difference it makes). It wasn’t until February 2012 that I received a phone call from the neurosurgeon’s office— over 2.5 years after the referral from one of the top specialists in the province.They drilled into my brain eight months later. It made a radical difference. But in the prime of my life in my late 20s- early 30s even with the care of exceptional specialists, it was years to properly treat. And it’s American technology in my body (Medtronic) due to innovation south of the border. Parkinson’s is degenerative, not terminal. I was in rough shape before I could be properly treated.  For those with illness that need treatment before it becomes terminal, the wait times don’t oftentimes result in death. 

543351_10151456694059838_467859412_n.jpeg

 

18 hours ago, Groundhog said:

That was pre-surgery. They bolted an aluminum frame to my head and then I had an MRI. The neurosurgeon and his team then disappeared for a few hours to map out where they would drill. The frame was a fixed point of reference. Picture was taken while waiting for him and his team. The one picture is three days post-op then one month post-op. 

P1000629.jpeg

P1000642.jpeg

Wow that’s an incredible story, glad you were able to get treatment. I’m all for government funded healthcare but I do acknowledge the long wait times that it causes. Many people here go to Mexico to get treatment for certain conditions, not only is it faster and cheaper but it many situations they get even better quality treatment.

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trump is suing CBS News for $10 billion alleging deceptive editing practices around Kamala's 60 minutes interview.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-sues-cbs-news-10-billion-alleging-deceptive-doctoring-harris-60-minutes-interview

Just saw that. I doubt very much he gets any more than $8,000,000,000 out of them. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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