Politer Politics

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

https://phys.org/news/2024-07-dont-underestimate-summer-temperatures-swiss.html

“A look at the trend over the last three decades shows that summers in Europe and Switzerland are warming up faster than anywhere else in the world. Virtually the entire 2.3 degrees Celsius increase in temperature that we have observed in summers since the late 19th century has taken place between the 1980s and the present day.”

Just saying that the PNW isn’t the only mid-latitude region with quickly warming summers. Maybe it is the absolute fastest warming, I’m not sure, but I don’t think it’s accurate to say we’re so different in this regard. 

Again though, we're talking about the step change in the PNW summer climate that occurred around 2013-2014. Here is another map showing the entire NH, with temps the past decade compared to the 1800s to 2015 period.

Guess which area stands out more than any other.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's largely thought to be agriculture related.  There are more crops than there used to be.  This results in a feedback with putting more moisture into the air via evapotranspiration, resulting in more rainfall and cooler temps.  At some point this process may be overwhelmed by the larger background warming signal, but not yet.

Not so sure that's the entire reason.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Greenland has cooled?  I thought the MSM was saying it's all melting! 

That's just heights in the warm season. +NAO has been dominant.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again though, we're talking about the step change in the PNW summer climate that occurred around 2013-2014. Here is another map showing the entire NH, with warming the past decade compared to the 1800s to 2015 period.

Guess which area stands out more than any other.

That kind of puts an end to the discussion.

[Tenochtitlan]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Again though, we're talking about the step change in the PNW summer climate that occurred around 2013-2014. Here is another map showing the entire NH, with temps the past decade compared to the 1800s to 2015 period.

Guess which area stands out more than any other.

Yeah, in the past decade specifically you’re probably right. One thing I think we’ve been understanding in recent years is that climate change isn’t a smooth process. There will be some sudden jumps and temporary plateaus depending on the specific region. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've heard he did miss one... But either way, he may be right, but I don't put to much stock in what he says. He's clearly a weirdo and hyper partisan. A lot of his keys are fairly subjective too, or the way he interprets them. 

How do you figure he is partisan if he has picked both parties as the winner successfully.  Obviously he is not credible because he is not predicting your orange deity will be the winner. 

 

And the one he missed was the one where the Supreme Court got involved.  He's been doing it 40 years, that's 10 elections.  He missed 1 out of 10...90%  That's pretty good odds.

 

He is 1-1 when the courts get involved, and its all but certain that courts will get involved this election, so there is that.....

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

How do you figure he is partisan if he has picked both parties as the winner successfully.  Obviously he is not credible because he is not predicting your orange deity will be the winner. 

 

And the one he missed was the one where the Supreme Court got involved.  He's been doing it 40 years, that's 10 elections.  He missed 1 out of 10...90%  That's pretty good odds.

 

He is 1-1 when the courts get involved, and its all but certain that courts will get involved this election, so there is that.....

Polling is highly against him though.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not so sure that's the entire reason.

I didn't say there couldn't be other factors.  The reasoning behind that is sound though.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, in the past decade specifically you’re probably right. One thing I think we’ve been understanding in recent years is that climate change isn’t a smooth process. 

No doubt. I'm just raising the flag of caution about pointing to recent PNW summers as evidence for accelerating climate change, when they are definitely not representative of the vast majority of the globe.

[Tenochtitlan]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No doubt. I'm just raising the flag of caution about pointing to recent PNW summers as evidence for accelerating climate change, when they are definitely not representative of the vast majority of the globe.

Fair enough, point taken.

And fingers crossed we never see a June 2021 again in our lifetimes!

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Logically, if we attribute local climate shifts like this to global warming, what's to stop people who are seeing little to no change locally (or even cooling during some seasons) from dismissing climate change?

Because the overall temperature of the earth is unequivocally warming?  For every climate that is cooler, how many more climates are warming?

You can't fix dumb. 

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Because the overall temperature of the earth is unequivocally warming?  For every climate that is cooler, how many more climates are warming?

You can't fix dumb. 

I can't wait to see what you guys are going to do if things just decide to start cooling all of a sudden.  It's happened before.  You know....cycles and all.

[SnarkyGoblin]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't wait to see what you guys are going to do if things just decide to start cooling all of a sudden.  It's happened before.  You know....cycles and all.

Oh I'm sure it will eventually cool back down. Doesn't mean lots and lots of pain won't happen between now and then.

Those cycles you're talking about usually happen in millennia time tables.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Because the overall temperature of the earth is unequivocally warming?  For every climate that is cooler, how many more climates are warming?

You can't fix dumb. 

Whoosh...

Of course the overall temp of the globe is warming. But it's intellectually dishonest to act like every regional trend, no matter how short term or extreme, is directly attributable to global climate change and nothing else.

I've already made plenty of posts demonstrating how recent PNW summers represent an extreme localized trend, and pointing to that personal experience as proof of AGW is problematic when it doesn't reflect the general experience or the fact that it's an outlier compared to almost everywhere else.

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Can see the summer warming hole in the central US on that map.  In fact, some areas in the central US have seen no summer warming or even very slight cooling depending on what map/timeframe one looks at.  

But the tradeoff has been muggier weather on average.  Average dewpoints have been going up with more extreme dewpoint days.  Just for a very local example... it used to be almost unheard of to have 80 degree dewpoints here, and now it seems like it happens at some point almost every summer (sometimes multiple days).  Nothing like sweating the minute you step outside lol.

Muggier basically means warmer (more heat stored in the atmosphere overall)

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Muggier basically means warmer (more heat stored in the atmosphere overall)

Tonga since January 2022?

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Whoosh...

Of course the overall temp of the globe is warming. But it's intellectually dishonest to act like every regional trend, no matter how short term or extreme, is directly attributable to global climate change and nothing else.

I've already made plenty of posts demonstrating how recent PNW summers represent an extreme localized trend, and pointing to that personal experience as proof of AGW is problematic when it doesn't reflect the general experience or the fact that it's an outlier compared to almost everywhere else.

You are the most pedantic person ever...

What serious person is only looking at their local trends and making opinions on whether the world is warming?  Who on here is making that argument that you are trying to put down for some reason?

The fact that it's warming in most places, like the PNW, just reinforces the fact that the world is overall warming.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Muggier basically means warmer (more heat stored in the atmosphere overall)

It's definitely had an impact on causing nighttime mins to be warmer.  But the muggier weather overall has resulted in fewer extreme high temperature days in summer in the central US/Midwest compared to the early-mid 20th century.  It can be looked at with various thresholds, like 100 degree days or even 95 degree days.  I think the effect starts to wash out at lower thresholds though.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It's definitely had an impact on causing nighttime mins to be warmer.  But the muggier weather overall has resulted in fewer extreme high temperature days in summer in the central US/Midwest compared to the early-mid 20th century.  It can be looked at with various thresholds, like 100 degree days or even 95 degree days.  I think the effect starts to wash out at lower thresholds though.

Yeah kind of seems like the plains and Midwest used do be more desert like (obviously dust bowl was extreme version of that). Now they are downright tropical at times.

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I acknowledge climate change and the human component. From a data perspective it's pretty easy to see. Obviously here in the PNW it seems like we are living it with our summer climate. 

 

4 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

What serious person is only looking at their local trends and making opinions on whether the world is warming?  Who on here is making that argument that you are trying to put down for some reason?

This is something that's repeatedly been pointed to on here. Not just Andrew. 

It's human nature. Personal experience trumps more abstract stuff for most people.

[Tenochtitlan]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

This is something that's repeatedly been pointed to on here. Not just Andrew. 

It's human nature. Personal experience trumps more abstract stuff for most people.

 I think I understand Snarky Goblin’s point. Like, being that the world is warming, and warming unevenly, there is bound to be somewhere that is warming the fastest. Right now, at least for the summer, the PNW appears to be one of those places.

We are the unfortunate losers in this lurching process of warming, but I bet that next decade it’ll be some other place.

It wouldn’t be accurate to say that the whole world is warming as fast as we are, but it would have been far less likely for June 2021 to happen without all this added heat in the atmosphere.

Our climate experience is inseparable from climate change, and of course that doesn’t mean everywhere on the planet is having the exact same experience. 

Sorry, not very eloquent. I tried

[TT-SEA]

What the hell was wrong with Trump today?   Low energy slurring mess.    I guess Kamala has said she wants 100% totally open borders and wants to get rid of all police officers in the country and she alone single-handedly destroyed San Francisco.   All by herself!   Amazing.

He is so comically desperate its painful to listen to... and hopefully he repeats all those lines in the debate.   All of them are completely false and easily dismissed as extreme exaggeration.  

[Tenochtitlan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What the hell was wrong with Trump today?   Low energy slurring mess.    I guess Kamala has said she wants 100% totally open borders and wants to get rid of all police officers in the country and she alone single-handedly destroyed San Francisco.   All by herself!   Amazing.

He is so comically desperate it’s painful to listen to... and hopefully he repeats all those lines in the debate.   All of them are completely false and easily dismissed as extreme exaggeration.  

He’s a funny guy! 

I like the cognitive dissonance where she can somehow be a ruthless, cold-hearted DA and yet also responsible for all of San Francisco’s crime. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win | Reuters

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

He’s a funny guy! 

I like the cognitive dissonance where she can somehow be a ruthless, cold-hearted DA and yet also responsible for all of San Francisco’s crime. 

Literally all of it!   If she was not the DA there then it would be a perfect place.   But one person ruined the entire city and everything and everyone in it.   I can't believe how powerful she is... amazing stuff.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win | Reuters

I posted this last night to much disagreement from our MAGA nuts.   

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I posted this last night to much disagreement from our MAGA nuts.   

ha! Sorry, I think I skipped a page. 

Not a troll attempt.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

ha! Sorry, I think I skipped a page. 

Not a troll attempt.

I like it... worth repeating.    Kamala is probably not the END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!!!!    As some on here imply.  

[Iceresistance]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like it... worth repeating.    Kamala is probably not the END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT!!!!!    As some on here imply.  

I wonder if the rest of the world will think that Harris is also weak like Biden

[hawkstwelve]

"Much disagreement from our MAGA nuts."

15 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm skeptical.  For one there is almost zero doubt Trump will result in lower gas prices.  Just goes hand in hand with drill baby drill.

Lower gas prices result in just about everything being cheaper due to lower transportation costs and lower costs to make petroleum based products.  

 

14 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm old enough to remember when "economists" predicted a worldwide economic collapse if Trump got into office in 2016.

Woops... Guess that prediction didn't turn out too well. I'm sure they'll be right this time.

[Tenochtitlan]

17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I wonder if the rest of the world will think that Harris is also weak like Biden

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Whoosh...

Of course the overall temp of the globe is warming. But it's intellectually dishonest to act like every regional trend, no matter how short term or extreme, is directly attributable to global climate change and nothing else.

I've already made plenty of posts demonstrating how recent PNW summers represent an extreme localized trend, and pointing to that personal experience as proof of AGW is problematic when it doesn't reflect the general experience or the fact that it's an outlier compared to almost everywhere else.

So many people simply shut their brains off when you try to refute some of the climate change hype.  They will not acknowledge some of it could be natural cycle stuff.  They also take it as gospel when scientists extrapolate how the changes will manifest in the sensible weather.  Didn't work out too well for the Atlantic Basin this year.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2024/06/11/globally-biden-receives-higher-ratings-than-trump/

Is it any surprise the rest of the world has a negative view of Trump when they listen to the blatherings of the MSM?

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Yeah kind of seems like the plains and Midwest used do be more desert like (obviously dust bowl was extreme version of that). Now they are downright tropical at times.

I was reading somewhere that the Central United States periodically goes into nearly full blown desert.  I think it has something to do with the procession of the equinoxes which also makes the Sahara Desert savannah about half of the time.  Amazing how much things have changed in the past without the help of man.....

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it any surprise the rest of the world has a negative view of Trump when they listen to the blatherings of the MSM?

Blathering describes Trump.   Why do you think the MSM has to tell people what to think of that moron?   10 minutes of listening to him talk tells me all I need to know from his own mouth.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Blathering describes Trump.   Why do you think the MSM has to tell people what to think of that moron?   10 minutes of listening to him talk tells me all I need to know from his own mouth.  

Say it's not so!

[snow_wizard]

It appears Trump has cut the Harris lead in half in PA over the last week.  According to 538 it has gone from +1.8 to +0.9.  The Harris effect is over.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Say it's not so!

It's just so stupid that you think the MSM is the reason people perceive him as a complete moron.   It's because he IS a complete moron.   And the only reason you can't see that is because you desperately want what he is selling.  

If the MSM was him praising as some genius I would be thinking we live in an alternate universe.  Because I know he is a moron by listening to him and watching him.   And I don't care if I would benefit greatly from him being elected.  Doesn't change my opinion.

[snow_wizard]

Can anyone say wheels falling off?  Harris favorability is tanking.

Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can anyone wheels falling off?  Harris favorability is tanking.

Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls | FiveThirtyEight

I think you are reading that wrong.    It's the opposite.  Favorability is going up.   Unfavorability is tanking.