Politer Politics

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Kamala is totally fake... at least Trump is out there keeping it real talking about nuclear war and Israel ceasing to exist and transgender surgeries being performed at school during the school day.     

I think Matt has a point about you going a little over the top on Trump.  Just sayin....

[snow_wizard]

10 hours ago, snow drift said:

1 percentage point is basically even.

Not with polls concerning Trump.  His numbers are always way low compared to reality.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think Matt has a point about you going a little over the top on Trump.  Just sayin....

Only because its well established that Trump is a lunatic so it doesn't have to be said every day.  

But when you guys are mocking Kamala for hugging a supporter then its worth reminding you of all the absolutely crazy things Trump actually says... in this case just in the last 2 days.    

The mental gymnastics required to ignore all that must be incredible.   If Kamala was out there talking about the world ending and hannibal lecter and windmills and transgender surgeries being performed at school then I would have no problem calling it out every day.  But I don't have a problem with her hugging someone who seemed to be overwhelmed with emotion.   That seems like a normal human interaction to me.  

[hawkstwelve]

Digging a bit more into that NYT/Sienna poll. Besides the top line national number with Trump showing in the lead, there are some very worrisome numbers in here if I am in the Kamala camp...

- 46% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, higher than both 2016 and 2020

- When asked who is trusted to handle the issues most important to you, voters gave Trump a 7 point edge over Harris

- 50% of voters say Trump is "not too far left or right" while only 32% say he is "too conservative". For Harris, 44% of voters say she is "too liberal or progressive" with only 42% saying she is moderate

- 63% of voters say they want the next president to bring "major change" from the Biden administration. 56% of voters say Harris represents "more of the same" while 61% of voters say Trump represents change

- 31% of voters say they need to learn more about Kamala Harris while only 12% say the same about Trump. This represents the possibility that Harris's poll numbers may have room for larger movement than Trump's numbers

- 54% of voters say Trump is a "risky choice" as president; 52% say the same about Kamala. Certainly doesn't align with the prevailing media narrative

- Speaking of narratives, for all the talk of how Trump is a "threat to democracy", Kamala Harris only leads Trump by 5 points when asked who would do a better job to maintain democracy

- Despite recent news stories attempting to suggest otherwise, Trump holds a commanding 16-point lead over Harris on trust to handle economic issues; he holds a 9 point lead over her on immigration; she holds a 15 point lead over him on abortion

- 55% of voters say Kamala Harris shoulders either "a lot of" or "some of" the blame in regards to rising prices; 63% say the same about the border;  49% say the same about the withdraw from Afghanistan

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only because its well established that Trump is a lunatic so it doesn't have to be said every day.  

But when you guys are mocking Kamala for hugging a supporter then its worth reminding you of all the absolutely crazy things Trump actually says... in this case just in the last 2 days.    

The mental gymnastics required to ignore all that must be incredible.   If Kamala was out there talking about the world ending and hannibal lecter and windmills and transgender surgeries being performed at school then I would have no problem calling it out every day.  But I don't have a problem with her hugging someone who seemed to be overwhelmed with emotion.   That seems like a normal human interaction to me.  

So why do you do it?

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Digging a bit more into that NYT/Sienna poll. Besides the top line national number with Trump showing in the lead, there are some very worrisome numbers in here if I am in the Kamala camp...

- 46% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, higher than both 2016 and 2020

- When asked who is trusted to handle the issues most important to you, voters gave Trump a 7 point edge over Harris

- 50% of voters say Trump is "not too far left or right" while only 32% say he is "too conservative". For Harris, 44% of voters say she is "too liberal or progressive" with only 42% saying she is moderate

- 63% of voters say they want the next president to bring "major change" from the Biden administration. 56% of voters say Harris represents "more of the same" while 61% of voters say Trump represents change

- 31% of voters say they need to learn more about Kamala Harris while only 12% say the same about Trump. This represents the possibility that Harris's poll numbers may have room for larger movement than Trump's numbers

- 54% of voters say Trump is a "risky choice" as president; 52% say the same about Kamala. Certainly doesn't align with the prevailing media narrative

- Speaking of narratives, for all the talk of how Trump is a "threat to democracy", Kamala Harris only leads Trump by 5 points when asked who would do a better job to maintain democracy

- Despite recent news stories attempting to suggest otherwise, Trump holds a commanding 16-point lead over Harris on trust to handle economic issues; he holds a 9 point lead over her on immigration; she holds a 15 point lead over him on abortion

- 55% of voters say Kamala Harris shoulders either "a lot of" or "some of" the blame in regards to rising prices; 63% say the same about the border;  49% say the same about the withdraw from Afghanistan

I have felt the momentum shift toward Trump in the last week or so.

[Iceresistance]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have felt the momentum shift toward Trump in the last week or so.

Yeah, I've predicted the pendulum to swing in favor of Trump after Harris was chosen after a certain point

[Hoosier]

How about a little debate over/under.

How many times will Harris refer to Trump as a felon/convicted felon at the debate?  Over/under 1.5

I'll go under.  I think we'll see it once but probably not more than that.  Would be shocked if it's more than twice.  Most people already know that Trump is a felon and the more you mention it, the more it looks like you are just trying to use the label.  This is very much baked in at this point.

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How about a little debate over/under.

How many times will Harris refer to Trump as a felon/convicted felon at the debate?  Over/under 1.5

I'll go under.  I think we'll see it once but probably not more than that.  Would be shocked if it's more than twice.  Most people already know that Trump is a felon and the more you mention it, the more it looks like you are just trying to use the label.  This is very much baked in at this point.

I will say over

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

- Despite recent news stories attempting to suggest otherwise, Trump holds a commanding 16-point lead over Harris on trust to handle economic issues; he holds a 9 point lead over her on immigration; she holds a 15 point lead over him on abortion

This is key. Abortion will never be as important to people as the economy or even immigration. 

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have felt the momentum shift toward Trump in the last week or so.

He could actually screw up his momentum with this debate. Opposite of the Biden debacle. 

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How about a little debate over/under.

How many times will Harris refer to Trump as a felon/convicted felon at the debate?  Over/under 1.5

I'll go under.  I think we'll see it once but probably not more than that.  Would be shocked if it's more than twice.  Most people already know that Trump is a felon and the more you mention it, the more it looks like you are just trying to use the label.  This is very much baked in at this point.

And it's pretty much a convicted felon with an asterisk anyway.  I agree she won't overuse it.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is key. Abortion will never be as important to people as the economy or even immigration. 

When abortion is your number one issue it's not saying a lot about the vision of the party.  Most people aren't gleeful when somebody gets an abortion.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Yeah, I've predicted the pendulum to swing in favor of Trump after Harris was chosen after a certain point

It was nothing more than a thank God it's not Biden bounce.

[snow_wizard]

Whether you choose to believe it or not there is scuttlebutt about full blown panic going on behind the scenes, because the swamp rats are pretty sure Trump is going to win.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

So why do you do it?

I explained it in the next sentence.  

[Andie]

So, does anyone really think there is a significant number of fence sitters to swing the election either way?  Very polarized choice.   
Feels pretty fixed now.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

So, does anyone really think there is a significant number of fence sitters to swing the election either way?  Very polarized choice.   
Feels pretty fixed now.  

Hard to imagine more than 5% being undecided at this point.  That is still a lot though.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

He could actually screw up his momentum with this debate. Opposite of the Biden debacle. 

I am biting my nails over the debate.  He just needs to stay on point and not go over the top with hyperbole.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am biting my nails over the debate.  He just needs to stay on point and not go over the top with hyperbole.  

It will be fine... Trump could spend the entire time ranting and raving about nonsense and saying the world will end but Kamala will automatically lose if she even smiles once.   Smiling is such an unnatural human expression.     

[snow_wizard]

Polling for Harris is just tanking right now.  Yikes! 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It will be fine... Trump could spend the entire time ranting and raving about nonsense and saying the world will end but Kamala will automatically lose if she even smiles once.   Smiling is such an unnatural human expression.     

That's a little harsh.  On the other hand, laughing at any level is an immediate disqualifier!

[Hoosier]

Channeling some Trump here, but will be interesting to see what kind of ratings this debate will get.  I don't think there's any question the ratings will surpass the June debate between Biden and Trump (and possibly by a lot) simply because we are now more firmly into election season and I think there's more interest in seeing Kamala up there compared to Biden.

[Slushy Inch]

22 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

So I guess you believe men can get pregnant then.

They used to say people with gender dysphoria felt like they were born in the wrong body and I agree with that and that such people exist and their lives are not easy. However biology proves people with XX chromosomes are females and XY chromosomes are males. No surgery can change that fact. Even Richard Dawkins says so and he's an atheist.

As a general rule, biological males are more athletic than females. Putting biological men in women's sports is like putting NBA players in high school basketball.

Gender ideology evolved from postmodernism and neo-Marxism, just like CRT. The far left believes capitalism created the gender binary. They want to get rid of gender altogether. They say it's a social construct that was made up to keep men in power over women. However asserting that a person with a penis who identifies as a woman is a woman is just reenforcing the idea that gender is a social construct, since it requires you to define what a woman is.

 

I’m probably considered far left because I’m a Bernie guy. I think people shouldn’t assume what others believe and how they got there. Most people don’t read about an idea like Marxism or post modernism and come to their beliefs that way. Nobody is trying to get rid of the gender construct, at least no significant number. There is some pushback against traditional gender roles. People know biological sex is two dimensional, why do you think you have to explain that? 

[Slushy Inch]

22 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Glad you admit that at least. 

What you mean admit? Nobody thinks cis men can get pregnant

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That's a little harsh.  On the other hand, laughing at any level is an immediate disqualifier!

Any smile needs to add to their strategy. A pleasant expression beat a smile. 
She will have to tread carefully. 

[Slushy Inch]

22 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When you ask someone to deny one of the most fundamental realities of our existence as humans, it is their business. I cannot think of anything more evil.

Deny what?

[Andie]

Not sure as to the veracity of this, but here it is.  

“Film at 11 !”

https://www.wnd.com/2024/09/its-in-the-works-kamala-harris-will-be-installed-as-president-before-election-says-kash-patel/

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

So, does anyone really think there is a significant number of fence sitters to swing the election either way?  Very polarized choice.   
Feels pretty fixed now.  

Yes. The key word above is significant. The number is not high, but it is significant, because the number of voters who have made up their minds and unlikely to change them on each side approximately cancels each other out. It will all come down to a relatively few swing voters in a few swing states.

[Slushy Inch]

16 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Actually, I don’t worry about these issues at all until someone on your side of politics brings them up  

Yeah I don’t care about this issue at all until someone brings it up. I just want what’s best for trans people or anyone. The brain is not a precise machine, it’s not that hard to imagine someone not identifying with the sex they are born with. Everybody knows their biology doesn’t change unless they get something chopped off. It’s not a gotcha.

[Slushy Inch]

15 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That still doesn't explain the situation of Chloe Cole, or why another Democrat just left the party because she was offended by being called a "birthing person". It also doesn't explain why 30% to 60% of students in some public schools now identify as LGBTQ.

Offending LGBTQ people is now the most horrible crime imaginable to the woke left, some of who claim all religions and worldviews are equal (moral relativism), but that Democrat who was offended by being called a "birthing person" and left her party is "transphobic" and considered a horrible person by the left. I'm sure some leftists believe she should be hanged or taken to the gulags for her heretical beliefs.

Haha 30-60 percent. I’m sure a very reliable and accurate study would come out and say oh it’s somewhere within this 30 percent range.

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I’m probably considered far left because I’m a Bernie guy. I think people shouldn’t assume what others believe and how they got there. Most people don’t read about an idea like Marxism or post modernism and come to their beliefs that way. Nobody is trying to get rid of the gender construct, at least no significant number. There is some pushback against traditional gender roles. People know biological sex is two dimensional, why do you think you have to explain that? 

I think some people differentiate between gender and biological sex (like yourself) and others do not.

[Slushy Inch]

The Kamala is going to have to hit Trump really hard on a topic and knock him off balance to come out on top of this debate, and not get surprised by obvious questions. I don’t have the highest hopes for either. Other wild card is we never really know what Trump is going to say. He could have an old man moment.

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yes. The key word above is significant. The number is not high, but it is significant, because the number of voters who have made up their minds and unlikely to change them on each side approximately cancels each other out. It will all come down to a relatively few swing voters in a few swing states.

Kinda makes me wish that for once I was a swinger in a swinging state. 

[Tenochtitlan]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think some people differentiate between gender and biological sex (like yourself) and others do not.

I do as well. That’s why I said cis men can’t get pregnant, because it’s true by definition. The distinction between gender on the one hand, and chromosomes/assigned sex at birth on the other, is actually key to understanding transness (and not seeing it as “against human nature” or something.)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The Kamala is going to have to hit Trump really hard on a topic and knock him off balance to come out on top of this debate, and not get surprised by obvious questions. I don’t have the highest hopes for either. Other wild card is we never really know what Trump is going to say. He could have an old man moment.

Or just do enough to get under his skin and trigger ranty old man mode in Trump. Or luck out and have it spontaneously trigger (which seems to be happening increasingly often these days).

I was really skeptical of Trump being able to keep a lid on ranty old man mode recently. I still am skeptical, but it is possible he could do it for the duration of the debate. Whether or not he will is the real question of the debate, barring something totally unforeseen like a complete meltdown by Harris.

In other words, the two most likely outcomes of the debate are:

1. Damage Trump, or
2. No big changes.

All other possibilities (help Trump, help Harris, damage Harris) are distinctly less likely.

[Deweydog]

She’s gonna bomb this. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

omg I'm sorry if this was shared already, but his answer....wow.

https://newrepublic.com/post/185655/trump-incoherent-rant-affordable-childcare-question

I wonder if that's a preview of what we'll see in the debate. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

I do as well. That’s why I said cis men can’t get pregnant, because it’s true by definition. The distinction between gender on the one hand, and chromosomes/assigned sex at birth on the other, is actually key to understanding transness (and not seeing it as “against human nature” or something.)

The biological part is much more straightforward, for the most part. A lot of people understand that much easier as a result. 

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

Not sure as to the veracity of this, but here it is.  

“Film at 11 !”

https://www.wnd.com/2024/09/its-in-the-works-kamala-harris-will-be-installed-as-president-before-election-says-kash-patel/

Could happen as a last ditch effort to revive her failing campaign.